February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[nuby3]

will Montgomery County get to freezing - or below?

good question. only time will tell. I think it's very possible but not necessarily likely. stay tuned

Austin now down to it's forecasted low of 37 with a DP of 31

[ticka1]

now 38 -going to bed

[Portastorm]

Close but not quite. KATT forecast low is 36. KAUS is 34. We're getting pretty much on top of those temps as of 9:30 p.m. Also note that the northwestern 1/4 of Travis County is now at or below freezing.

[basketballrox]

Here in San Marcos it is already 33! Way colder than they predicted. Now I'm wondering where the precip will come from. Any ideas?

[nuby3]

37.2 now

[nuby3]

37.2 now

next round entering the big bend region

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... 4_loop.php

[Heat Miser]

Cold, wet, and a miserable day ahead.

[ticka1]

but one good thing we need the rain

[Portastorm]

It appears that whatever is going to happen winter weather-wise in the Austin metro area will be happening shortly. Reports of freezing drizzle are picking up in Travis County, namely southwest and northwest ... I-35 seems to be the dividing line between freezing/non freezing. Radar getting more active to our south and west.

Kingsland now reporting light snow.

[srainhoutx]

For areas across Metro Houston, the warm layer aloft should protect us from any wintry mischief. The potent short wave is now crossing New Mexico and will continue to trek ESE across Texas today. The temperature here in NW Harris County is a chilly 34F and as lift increases and evaportarional cooling continues at the lower levels, light freezing drizzle/freezing rain may develop across our Northern areas such as College Station, Caldwell, Madisonville and on E into the Piney Woods of E Texas extending E into Louisiana as the day continues before the short wave passes overnight ending the wintry precip threat. Further E across the Deep South and into the Mid Atlantic, a very high impact event is unfolding with widespread societal impacts that will linger into Wednesday and Thursday as a powerful No'easter wraps up bringing major travel issues along the I-95 Corridor.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Freezing rain advisory remains in place for today for the northern 1/3rd of the area.

Strong short wave clearly noted over New Mexico spreading lift toward the region this morning. 700am surface temperatures are above freezing at all locations across SE TX however surface dewpoints have fallen below freezing as far south as northern Harris County under dry air advection overnight as the light rainfall and drizzle ended. While surface temperatures have been unable to fall to below freezing under the influence of cold air advection…the advection of drier low level air southward sets the stage for enough room for some evaporative cooling as precipitation begins to onset again later this morning. With surface temperatures in the 33-35 degree range north of HWY 105 it will not take much cooling to get the advisory area to freezing. While dewpoints further southward are at freezing even into Harris County, do not think evaporative cooling will be enough to reduce the surface temperature to freezing…hence all liquid and no ice.

P-type:
Impressive warm layer remains in the mid levels with 850mb temperatures on the order of the mid and upper 40’s suggesting this is a freezing rain profile. With that said the slightly drier air might result in just enough mid level cooling to produce some sleet mixture as far south as HWY 105 this afternoon. Not confident that is going to happen and this would really not change the impacts in the advisory area any.

Accumulation:
Rainfall amounts look light on the order of .05-.10 of an inch in the advisory area which would equate to about 50% of that of ice accumulation especially since surface temperatures are so marginal. Looks like bridges and overpasses could be the issue, but time od ay with a slightly increased solar angle does support some radiation getting through the clouds and bring absorbed by the bridges…which may just be enough to keep them wet instead of ice covered. Bigger concern is after sun set with light freezing rain still falling and temperatures falling into the 29-31 degree range…which could result in fairly quick icing over of bridges in the advisory area. Still think the best chances for ice accumulation will be east of I-45 and more likely around Lake Livingston.

For Metro Houston: all precipitation will remain liquid and do not expect ice formation in this area. Any wet spots on bridges and overpasses overnight could freeze as temperatures fall below freezing Wednesday morning.

Extended:
The “great” warm up begins in earnest Thursday into the weekend as southerly Gulf flow becomes established and the upper air pattern over the US more zonal keeping any arctic air trapped in Canada or across the eastern US. Will need to keep an eye on dewpoints over the cold nearshore waters which could spread low clouds and fog inland as earlier as Friday and lasting into the weekend making it more cloudy than what model guidance is suggesting.

[srainhoutx]

Freezing drizzle now reported in Cedar Park (Bexar County) in the San Antonio area. Also numerous reports of treacherous roadways and many accidents across the San Angelo area.

[nuby3]

33.8 at 9am. gonna be a cold rainy windy day

[wxman57]

33.8 at 9am. gonna be a cold rainy windy day

Cheer up, I see significant warming in our very near future. More 70s than 30s for the next 2 weeks.

[nuby3]

33.8 at 9am. gonna be a cold rainy windy day

Cheer up, I see significant warming in our very near future. More 70s than 30s for the next 2 weeks.

funny. I actually wish it would get colder. I'm a runner, I love cold. guys on bikes like it warm I started riding bikes recently and now I totally understand though, with the higher speed comes more wind. not so much total body movement too

[ticka1]

UGH - keep the temps in the 50's and 30's at night. That's my type of weather 80's is too dang hot. Hopefully winter will reload and give us several more shots of arctic air - then middle March and April - Spring can slowly arrive with moderating temps.

[nuby3]

UGH - keep the temps in the 50's and 30's at night. That's my type of weather 80's is too dang hot. Hopefully winter will reload and give us several more shots of arctic air - then middle March and April - Spring can slowly arrive with moderating temps.

my kind of talk-- cold cold cold please

[djmike]

Ha. Its kind of funny that this will be what, 4th or 5th winter precip event so far this winter and this board is DEAD! If this was the 1st winter precip event, this board would be hoppin'! Remember #1? I couldnt keep up with the pages!! LOL. I think now that we have all dealt with it and we have all seen frozen "something" fall from the sky this winter, we're over it. Well...some of us. Not at all excited anymore to see ice fall from the sky. Snow I think would be a little different, but not once have we had a "firm" 100% snow event (for our area). Mix/flurries/GRAUPEL where you have to squint yours eyes till they pop out of your head, making sure you have a dark backround or staring at a street light, while covering the actual light with your finger so the light illuminates that 1 flake that flys by doesnt count. Atleast for me it doesnt. LOL. ReAdY fOr SpRiNg!!!

[srainhoutx]

HGX will be dropping the Freezing Rain Advisory for Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, Madison, Walker, San Jacinto Counties. Will keep Freezing Rain Advisory for Houston, Polk and Trinity Counties.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is looking much warmer for the next week, though I think it's missing a cold front next Tuesday: