May Weather Discussion.

[gocuse22]

will these storms make it to sugar land

[wxdata]

will these storms make it to sugar land

The line isn't that far from Sugar Land right now..

[kayci]

Silly Question: On the radar I see the line of storms heading this way, I also see some precip on the radar pulling north from the Gulf. My question is this, does the incoming front somehow pull moisture off the GOM and bring it inland? if so, why? If not... then I need better glasses.

[wxdata]

Silly Question: On the radar I see the line of storms heading this way, I also see some precip on the radar pulling north from the Gulf. My question is this, does the incoming front somehow pull moisture off the GOM and bring it inland? if so, why? If not... then I need better glasses.

With the lack of cap, storm development is fair game anywhere ('homegrown storms'.) Also an upper air disturbance may be enhancing storm development.

[kayci]

Silly Question: On the radar I see the line of storms heading this way, I also see some precip on the radar pulling north from the Gulf. My question is this, does the incoming front somehow pull moisture off the GOM and bring it inland? if so, why? If not... then I need better glasses.

With the lack of cap, storm development is fair game anywhere ('homegrown storms'.) Also an upper air disturbance may be enhancing storm development.

Ok, Thank you, sir!

[jgreak]

So this cap that is finally gone, is this temporary, or will it be coming back soon? I know it was with us for a long time, what actually made it go away finally?

[wxdata]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010



THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY GENERATE MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER
URBAN LOCATIONS. RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE.

[sleetstorm]

On KHOU's Dopplar Radar, I saw a few green boxes, some red boxes, and some magenta boxes. Do you know what those symbolize?

They really do need a legend on those maps. In this case- red is severe thunderstorm warnings and purple tornado warnings.

I totally agree, wxdata. Thank you for deciphering those three different hued boxes for me.

[wxdata]

So this cap that is finally gone, is this temporary, or will it be coming back soon? I know it was with us for a long time, what actually made it go away finally?

GFS shows the cap comes and goes the next week or so. The change occurred when mid-level winds shifted from the southwest to a more southerly direction. The southwest direction brought in dry, warm air out of the deserts in Mexico.

[srainhoutx]

Here's hoping the ECMWF is on to something with the parade of Upper Air disturbances it is advertising next week.

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NORTH ZULCH...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO IOLA AND NORMANGEE.

[wxdata]

Here come da' rains..

[sleetstorm]

Is there a strong wave of low pressure that is helping to develop those showers and thunderstorms? Some of those thunderstoms have also become severe.

The storms ignited along and near a stationary front in central Texas and carried eastward by minor disturbances in the upper flow. The lack of a cap is also a big plus for us.

Yes, wxdata, that would make sense. I knew that there was a reason that showers and thunderstorms, some of which have become severe, are forming nearly everywhere in this state.

[sleetstorm]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NORTH ZULCH...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO IOLA AND NORMANGEE.

Does that severe thundestorm possess any hail/strong wind gusts with it?

[wxdata]

Probably .75 to 1" hail. The rest of the warnings reads

"STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!"

[sleetstorm]

So this cap that is finally gone, is this temporary, or will it be coming back soon? I know it was with us for a long time, what actually made it go away finally?

GFS shows the cap comes and goes the next week or so. The change occurred when mid-level winds shifted from the southwest to a more southerly direction. The southwest direction brought in dry, warm air out of the deserts in Mexico.

The dry warm air from Mexico's deserts are what assisted to create the cap, right?

[sleetstorm]

Probably .75 to 1" hail. The rest of the warnings reads

"STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!"

Do you have a guess as to how strong that the wind may be?

[wxdata]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
503 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXC041-185-313-142212-
/O.EXP.KHGX.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-100514T2200Z/
MADISON TX-BRAZOS TX-GRIMES TX-
503 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GRIMES...BRAZOS AND MADISON
COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE THUNDERSTORM PROMPTING THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN GRIMES AND MADISON COUNTIES.

[wxdata]

Do you have a guess as to how strong that the wind may be?

There's been no ground reports. Difficult to judge by looking at radar, as the beam is over 15,000 ft. off the ground.

[wxdata]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/14/10 2208Z


SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT WAS ONCE TWO
SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE
FROM SE OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS. THE IR ALSO SHOWS COOLING
AND EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS ON THE SW PORTION OF THIS LINE. SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS ALSO STRETCHES FROM SE TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD THOUGH EXTREME
SW ARKANSAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT HAS ALLOWED
THIS LINE TO ORIENT ITSELF ALONG THIS AXIS. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES
SUGGEST RAIN RATES ARE RUNNING .5-1.0"/HR IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION
ALONG THIS LINE AND EXPECT THE LINE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BLENDED TPW ALSO SHOWS PWATS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 1.6" TO AROUND 1.2". THIS MIGHT BE
A SIGN THAT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.