wxman57 wrote:Graupel is simply a semi-melted snowflake. The flake melts passing through a warm layer then re-freezes just above the surface. It's like a little snowball, much lighter than sleet. Yes, they can blow up and down like snowflakes.
As for tomorrow, models indicate significant low-level warming between now and tomorrow afternoon. So much so that all the clouds and precip are in an above-freezing layer.
Not saying I don't agree with your assessment, but the models didn't exactly perform too well for the weather in southeast Texas today. If they had, you would have been cautioning everyone yesterday about a brief period of sleet or snow.
wxman57 wrote:Graupel is simply a semi-melted snowflake. The flake melts passing through a warm layer then re-freezes just above the surface. It's like a little snowball, much lighter than sleet. Yes, they can blow up and down like snowflakes.
As for tomorrow, models indicate significant low-level warming between now and tomorrow afternoon. So much so that all the clouds and precip are in an above-freezing layer.
Not saying I don't agree with your assessment, but the models didn't exactly perform too well for the weather in southeast Texas today. If they had, you would have been cautioning everyone yesterday about a brief period of sleet or snow.
this is EXACTLY what I was thinking. I'm really sick of the models being re-iterated as forecasts. they clearly have not been accurate
While there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the next disturbance currently crossing Southern California, the 09Z SREF members tend to raise an eyebrow. That said the models seem to be having a bit of difficulty with the various surface and upper level layers as we witnessed this morning. I had about a 30 minute window where snow flakes about the size of half dollar coins mixed with sleet and grapple fell and that was not in the forecast for NW Harris County. We will see.
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I have a feeling it will be further North of Houston area. It will probably be rain rather than a mix of frozen precip if it even makes it to the ground. We are dry slotted right now so I would think it would take quite a bit of moisture to fall before it starts getting to the surface.
davidiowx wrote:I have a feeling it will be further North of Houston area. It will probably be rain rather than a mix of frozen precip if it even makes it to the ground. We are dry slotted right now so I would think it would take quite a bit of moisture to fall before it starts getting to the surface.
the storm brings the moisture with it. look at water vapor srain posted
The question is, will there be enough moisture with this system to saturate the lower levels to enable the precip to make it to the surface and will the temps be cold enough? I don't see it happening but a surprise would be nice.
davidiowx wrote:The question is, will there be enough moisture with this system to saturate the lower levels to enable the precip to make it to the surface and will the temps be cold enough? I don't see it happening but a surprise would be nice.
There is more moisture associated with the California system than the one that passed early this morning. Now will it dry out? That remains to be seen.
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EDIT to Add:
The WPC Winter Weather Outlook valid tomorrow morning is suggesting the potential is there for some light wintry mischief. We will see.
davidiowx wrote:I have a feeling it will be further North of Houston area. It will probably be rain rather than a mix of frozen precip if it even makes it to the ground. We are dry slotted right now so I would think it would take quite a bit of moisture to fall before it starts getting to the surface.
the storm brings the moisture with it. look at water vapor srain posted
Remember water vapor shows moisture in the middle to upper level. A lot of drying will be lower than that.
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nuby3 wrote:
davidiowx wrote:
I have a feeling it will be further North of Houston area. It will probably be rain rather than a mix of frozen precip if it even makes it to the ground. We are dry slotted right now so I would think it would take quite a bit of moisture to fall before it starts getting to the surface.
the storm brings the moisture with it. look at water vapor srain posted
Remember water vapor shows moisture in the middle to upper level. A lot of drying will be lower than that.
I know. I still say what I said though. in my opinion the storm will bring enough moisture with it
Kingwood31 wrote:When is the disturbance suppose to roll through? Tonight or early in the morning on Friday
It looks like tomorrow late afternoon/evening. By then, there should be quite significant warming in the lower 6000 ft of the atmosphere. So much warming that all clouds and precip may be in above-freezing air.
djmike wrote:Our met here is stressing to everyone its just graupel!! Well, I have to disagree, yes some of it is, but everything else Im seeing is FLOATING left, right, UP and down...I dont think graupel floats up! Anyway...
Oh yes, graupel floats. Graupel IS snow, it's just partly melted snowflakes. It's very light compared to sleet. Just like little styrofoam balls.
srainhoutx wrote:33F in NW Harris County at this hour. I will likely will not reach the 39F forecast as my high temperature today.
Here in Kountze, Tx. (30 miles north of Beaumont) fluttering around 32-33 degrees...humidity 81% Dew Point showing 27 degrees forecast high 37...???????
