January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[nuby3]

I think this will not bust and this event will point out that everyone relies on computers for forecasts

[ticka1]

GUYS LOOK http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... s_loop.php

nuby3 what does that show link wont work on my ipad - thanks!!

[ticka1]

sleet being reported in conroe....maybe something will happen but hubby has to work today - he has already left to drive to work.

[Portastorm]

Freezing rain has picked up in intensity and scope in the last hour here in the Austin area. Elevated roadways/bridges quickly icing over and accident tally increasing rapidly per EMS reports.

[nuby3]

GUYS LOOK http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... s_loop.php

nuby3 what does that show link wont work on my ipad - thanks!!

shows that the precip currently in texas is ahead of the actual upper storm which is currently spinning in western Mexico (long ways away still) the storm looks nice. I'm gonna find a still shot for you hang on

WATER VAPOR LOOP: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

VISIBLE IMAGE: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix/epac_vis.php

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I have sleet and 31

[snowman65]

I already had freezing rain sticking to my truck when I left for work at 6:00am. I live in Orange about 5 miles N of I-10. Truck said 29 deg.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GUYS LOOK http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... s_loop.php

nuby3 what does that show link wont work on my ipad - thanks!!

shows that the precip currently in texas is ahead of the actual upper storm which is currently spinning in western Mexico (long ways away still) the storm looks nice. I'm gonna find a still shot for you hang on

WATER VAPOR LOOP: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

VISIBLE IMAGE: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix/epac_vis.php

I have a mac and cant see the loop but i trust you

[nuby3]

we're about to get hammered. models or not

[cisa]

I have sleet and 31

You're in Conroe?

[wxman57]

For Houston it looks like a north side ice event. Central and southern parts of the city should remain above freezing during the precip this morning. Not as cold as expected and less precip than expected, but just as the models have been trending. Models become more useful as event nears, not less useful.

We got the sounding data but it's not in a format that I can read it yet.

[ronyan]

Temp here is 43F, and the NWS has changed our forecast for a wintry mix today over to all rain. Disappointing. The temperature forecasts for this event were poor.

[ticka1]

i have dropped from 41 at 5:00 am to now at 33 at 6:40 am will it get to freezing and drop several more degrees??? will we have precip that is frozen?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Absolutely. All you need is 32. The water vapor shows alot of moisture in mexico.

[Brandy3835]

I am in Beaumont 29 here with sleet

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I have sleet and 31

You're in Conroe?

Yes

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Band of light precipitation stretches from NW of San Antonio to College Station to Lufkin.

 

Within the last hour icing of bridges and overpasses has begun around the College Station area and Burleson County 911 is reporting sleet and freezing rain at 600am. Walker County EOC is also reporting a glaze of ice on elevated objects. This line of precipitation will sink southward and encompass much of the area by mid morning. Wet bulb processing are in progress across the area with dewpoints in the teens and surface temperatures in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Where precipitation has been slightly heavier, temperatures have fallen to and below freezing from Livingston to Conroe to Brenham. Still going to require a lot of work to do on the low level air mass to saturate that stubborn near surface dry layer…but this should be accomplished by mid morning along I-10 with precipitation then able to reach the ground. Current meso analysis from SPC shows the wet bulb temperatures (the cooling of the air due to the evaporative process) between 30-32 across Harris County WSW into northern Wharton County.  

 

Water vapor imagery does show some enhancement of mid and upper level moisture from the Big Bend region into east-central TX atop where current greatest radar echoes are occurring suggesting top down seeding of the low levels from the upper level moisture stream from the eastern Pacific Ocean.

 

Special launched (06Z) sounding at College Station strongly supports a freezing rain with possibly sleet mixture and suspect the metro Houston area has an even deeper layer of warm air above the surface suggesting an all freezing rain event. UH just launched a sounding and I should have that data within the hour…to confirm the depth of the warm layer further southward.  

[wxman57]

U of H sounding indicates a much larger warm nose aloft than models had been predicting, and the airmass over Houston is quite dry aloft. There is only a tiny sub-freezing layer around 950mb-900mb (3000-4000 ft up). Freezing rain will be the main threat across the Houston area.

[Kingwood31]

37and light rain in kingwood

[jeff]

U of H sounding indicates a much larger warm nose aloft than models had been predicting, and the airmass over Houston is quite dry aloft. There is only a tiny sub-freezing layer around 950mb-900mb (3000-4000 ft up). Freezing rain will be the main threat across the Houston area.

IF we can deplete the surface dry layer and cool the low levels...I have my doubts...but upstream areas have been able to do it with similar T/Td spreads that Houston currently has. All ZR