January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[mcheer23]

I'm gonna have to agree with the warmer look of the GFS. When I woke up this morning it was 50 degrees with the front just beginning to roll in. We have had gusty north winds for a couple hours up here now in Central Montgomery County and the temp has been holding at 55 degrees.

I noticed this as well....the temp drop isn't as big as forecasted.

This whole thing is slowly falling to pieces. If anything it'll be a repeat of last Friday. Snow north of any precip falls. And a glaze of ice in Houston. A bit of sleet but not too much.

The temp isn't supposed to start dropping for a few more hours...NWS has my area at 51 at 3pm

[Andrew]

A warning to everyone, provide actual information with facts to support your information. Do not just post this is going to be a bust or this isn't going to be a bust. That provides no support to the board. Further posts like this will be deleted.

[TxJohn]

The trends today have been warmer and drier...and we're so close to the event. I don't see why we should go back to older model runs. There seems to be a trend now...

[jgreak]

Latest closings
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[srainhoutx]

Texas State EOC is activating this afternoon with "readiness level" being increased for S Central and SE Texas.

[nuby3]

I'm sticking to my guns and going with the original CMC. I think the models can not be trusted. especially with a storm coming from where it is. I think it's gonna snow like crazy along and north of harris/Montgomery border tomorrow afternoon on top of a glaze of ice and a bit of sleet. but I'm just guessing like everyone else and I have nothing to back it up.

[mcheer23]

Can someone fill in on how the 12Z Euro was?

[TexasMetBlake]

Winter Storm Warnings are starting to be hoisted now: FINALLY. First one was just issued for southeast Georgia near Jacksonville. Not often you see that. As the AFD's are issued, I suspect we'll finally see the southern US light up with pink.

[jabcwb2]

Clear Creek ISD CLOSED tomorrow

[Paul]

something that might lead credence to the CMC last run is that ULL digging into BAJA is really slinging plenty of moisture up into STX moving across the state.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

finally on the winter warnings....its pretty much a done deal so why the wait...geezz...

[jasons2k]

Just went to lunch and I was reminded of the old wisdom of Harold Taft, and that was 'always remember to look out the window, or better yet, step outside, before issuing a forecast'.

Clouds are thickening-up outside and they already have that 'virga' look to them. It does not take much moisture in such cold air do make something happen.

[Mr. T]

Can't believe how unphased things have become on the models compared to just 12 hours ago...

As things stand now, it still looks like an advisory criteria event. But, man oh man.

But I still look at yesterday's 18z gfs and try to hold back the tears. Try...

Give me back mah snow, man

[sau27]

Clouds look to be breaking up/thinning out a bit here in the Galleria area with patches of blue.

[TXStormjg]

Sun is shining here in Hockley!

[Paul]

Just went to lunch and I was reminded of the old wisdom of Harold Taft, and that was 'always remember to look out the window, or better yet, step outside, before issuing a forecast'.

Clouds are thickening-up outside and they already have that 'virga' look to them. It does not take much moisture in such cold air do make something happen.

Taft? wasnt he a president or something?

[Wood6818]

Just went to lunch and I was reminded of the old wisdom of Harold Taft, and that was 'always remember to look out the window, or better yet, step outside, before issuing a forecast'.

Clouds are thickening-up outside and they already have that 'virga' look to them. It does not take much moisture in such cold air do make something happen.

Jason,

I get that same feeling too, The sky looks very similar to when I was living in Nashville,TN and before we had snow storms the sky had that look to it...but this is Houston.

[Mr. T]

I suspect hgx will probably change these watches to an advisory. There is nothing showing a "warning" criteria event now...

This all started last night during the 0z NAM when it started to slow the upper low down. 'Twas a bad sign if you like snow

[Kingwood31]

I suspect hgx will probably change these watches to an advisory. There is nothing showing a "warning" criteria event now...

This all started last night during the 0z NAM when it started to slow the upper low down. 'Twas a bad sign if you like snow

And that's how the cookie crumbles..

[TexasMetBlake]

MSY (NOLA) issues Winter Storm Warning. HGX should be making a decision soon, too.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC Winter Weather Probabilities Graphics are updating. The chance of freezing precip now extends to 18Z Wednesday across portions of SE Texas including Brazoria and Galveston Counties with spotty potential into Metro Houston.