January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[mcheer23]

The NWS still has .3 inches of snow for me. Nobody said Snow is out of the question. Just watch the event unfold

[wxman57]

The University of Houston is planning 2 radiosonde launches tomorrow - around 5am and 11am. This should identify whether the model projections of an above-freezing layer (warm nose) aloft is there as the models predicted. For now, I expect that elevated roads and bridges will become quite icy by tomorrow afternoon. Many (most) will be closed. There is a chance that the sleet and freezing rain may change over to snow in the evening, but I wouldn't count on any accumulations of snow for now.

[Kingwood31]

I'm cool with it just falling during the day instead of at night like last time where you couldn't really tell what was falling

[Andrew]

6z sounding launch here at college station

[snowman65]

What is forecast for Golden Triangle area for tomorrow please? Is it different than Houston area?

[Belmer]

Geez, some of y'all really do live and die by every model run don't y'all? My goodness. I've never seen such a bipolar forum before within 24 hours.
My only take on this, DONT rely on one or two consistent model runs. Look at the overall pattern and what it is showing. As mentioned before, last Fridays event took many off guard, even mets when snow fell as early as it did, as much as it did, and in places that weren't even forecasted to see any of the white stuff.

Breath and relax. It's all just a guessing game anyway until this event starts unfolding after midnight tonight.

[wxman57]

What is forecast for Golden Triangle area for tomorrow please? Is it different than Houston area?

Yes, same as Houston. Most likely freezing rain changing to sleet during the afternoon. Icy roads. Snow not out of the question but not likely. If any does fall it will be tomorrow evening.

[Kingwood31]

Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature wants to do regardless of what a model trend says so let's wait and see

[ronyan]

The 12z GFS is several degrees warmer during the tomorrow. A meteogram shows 38F as the high temp at IAH, I don't have the ability to post the graphic so perhaps wxman can. Only around .15" QPF, this has the look of more of an average arctic front really by the latest runs. Things may change by tomorrow, but I can't say that I'm happy about the latest developments.

[Kingwood31]

The 12z GFS is several degrees warmer during the tomorrow. A meteogram shows 38F as the high temp at IAH, I don't have the ability to post the graphic so perhaps wxman can. Only around .15" QPF, this has the look of more of an average arctic front really by the latest runs. Things may change by tomorrow, but I can't say that I'm happy about the latest developments.

I see your from clute? I just moved from up from clute to kingwood in hope of having a bit more luck with the snow being on the northern burbs of hou lol

[Kingwood31]

Should we stop watching models about now and start watching real data as the event nears?

[nuby3]

it is my opinion that the original CMC run that started up all of the chatter will be the one that verifies

[Belmer]

we will get it worse than points "east". why is everyone wanting to shove everything to the east? the setup for this system hasnt changed at all. the air will be colder and deeper than previously. the warm nose is minimal. and any warm nose will disappear once the precip falls. why is everyone being negative after a those model runs? i think its time for now casting, not model hugging.
model hugging and negativity cannot stop what is going to happen.

Please. This isn't helping our members/guest. You're just confusing many of our guest who come here for important information.
We really need to stick to what our pro mets are saying and not "personal" opinions. They can really sway people off.

[srainhoutx]

Models are but a tool. Let me go to a different forum and see what the smartest guy on that sub-forum thinks. We don't get regular visits from any kind of tagger on that thread, but a certain poster from Mexico studies the water vapor loops, looks at climatology, has a better feel...


I'm back, he just noted the Canadian is wetter on the 12Z...


EDIT:
A request for one of his deep thinking posts has been put in.

the 12Z RGEM and GGEM are 'wetter' and have abandoned the idea of a cut off 5H low and is now more progressive.

[Wood6818]

Should we stop watching models about now and start watching real data as the event nears?

Models are but a tool. Let me go to a different forum and see what the smartest guy on that sub-forum thinks. We don't get regular visits from any kind of tagger on that thread, but a certain poster from Mexico studies the water vapor loops, looks at climatology, has a better feel...


I'm back, he just noted the Canadian is wetter on the 12Z...


EDIT:
A request for one of his deep thinking posts has been put in.

the 12Z RGEM and GGEM are 'wetter' and have abandoned the idea of a cut off 5H low and is now more progressive.

Questions Srainhoutx,
What does that mean? Are the RGEM and GGEM more reliable?

[Kingwood31]

From Tim Hellers fb page....

Let me emphasize this: I think there's a chance this winter storm will be a bust.

Over the weekend the forecast models showed moisture surging across southeast Texas with very cold temperatures aloft. That's a good setup for snow.

But...in the last couple of runs, the models have trended drier and slightly warmer. That means there's less of a chance of snow and a greater probability we'll get freezing rain again. IF we get anything! Most of the moisture is over the Gulf of Mexico and you need moisture to get rain or sleet and snow.

But as of now...

I still think there's a chance, albeit a small chance of freezing rain/sleet beginning early Tuesday morning and continuing off and on into the afternoon. The amount of precipitation will be light, less than .10" but that's how much fell last Friday and it was enough to ice over the bridges and overpasses.

The precipitation might transition to all snow right before ending late Tuesday afternoon/evening. But since the forecast models are trending drier, I'm not as confident that we'll see much snow accumulate.

As I always say with winter storms, "Expect surprises!" A surge of moisture could create a burst of heavy snow somewhere in the area. But I think that's unlikely to occur.

Graphic: GFS forecast model showing freezing rain/sleet across southeast Texas thru Tuesday afternoon.

[Belmer]

I knew someone was going to post what Tim had to say.
This I'm sure will really turn people in a rage.

[srainhoutx]

Questions Srainhoutx,
What does that mean? Are the RGEM and GGEM more reliable?

The RGEM is the Canadian version of a shorter term meso model. The GGEM is the Global Canadian model. All this means is the fact the guidance is coming together in suggesting the progressive nature of the Baja upper low and that moisture and available lift will be present to generate over running precip. The RGEM and GGEM< suggest precip breaking out from near Laredo on ENE across the SE Texas area into Louisiana.

[Kingwood31]

I knew someone was going to post what Tim had to say.
This I'm sure will really turn people in a rage.

I figured why not lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ed, such a philosophical and poetic man at times....