January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[jeff]

One thing to keep in mind is we will be colder so little or no wasted QPF waiting on the temp to reach freezing...that alone will bump up the accum. over last week. Still not 100% sold on the snow for Houston southward. Montgomery Co northward looks pretty snowy...1-4 inches likely. I covered all this in a just sent e-mail.

[Kingwood31]

One thing to keep in mind is we will be colder so little or no wasted QPF waiting on the temp to reach freezing...that alone will bump up the accum. over last week. Still not 100% sold on the snow for Houston southward. Montgomery Co northward looks pretty snowy...1-4 inches likely. I covered all this in a just sent e-mail.

What about northern burbs of hou..humble,kingwood,spring ect....?

[srainhoutx]

Jeff, one of the things I've noticed is the mention of a Coastal trough by BRO this afternoon. That feature may add another wrinkle to the already complicated forecast. This sure has the 'feel' of January 1973 written all over it where things changed fairly rapidly less than 12 hour prior to the event. Thanks for all the hard work and frequent updates. You are a valued asset to our Community.

[jeff]

One thing to keep in mind is we will be colder so little or no wasted QPF waiting on the temp to reach freezing...that alone will bump up the accum. over last week. Still not 100% sold on the snow for Houston southward. Montgomery Co northward looks pretty snowy...1-4 inches likely. I covered all this in a just sent e-mail.

What about northern burbs of hou..humble,kingwood,spring ect....?

I thin north of HWY 105 it will be mostly snow...south of that it is somewhat more conditional.

[wxman57]

Interesting 18Z GFS meteogram for Houston. About 2-4" snow and a low Wed of 17, and that's just 2m temps. MOS will probably be colder:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Interesting 18Z GFS meteogram for Houston. About 2-4" snow and a low Wed of 17, and that's just 2m temps. MOS will probably be colder:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs18zjan26.gif

Sure looks like a Houston meteogram to me#4SeasonsIn4Days

[wxman57]

am i seeing this right? wxman actually being positive about cold and snow? i never thought i would see this day.,,,,,jeff being negative and wxman being positive. thank you wxman

The only possible good of cold air in winter is if there's snow involved. Otherwise, I'd rather have 100 deg temps in winter.

[TxJohn]

A low of 17? I love the latest GFS run so much right now....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

A low of 17? I love the latest GFS run so much right now....

Actually you are much colder in NW HARRIS county under a cover of snow. Probably 14-15

[TexasMetBlake]

Hmmm, not sure where you are seeing the 17. The GFS MOS 18z run has 19 at IAH. The 12z NAM has 25 Tues. night. Dewpoints are forecast to drop to 13 at IAH. If we have decent snow pack or ice we may easily break through 19---coldest since Feb. 1996.

[Mr. T]

Hmmm, not sure where you are seeing the 17. The GFS MOS 18z run has 19 at IAH. The 12z NAM has 25 Tues. night. Dewpoints are forecast to drop to 13 at IAH. If we have decent snow pack or ice we may easily break through 19---coldest since Feb. 1996.

The 17 comes from the 2m temp forecast

And also... hi!

[TexasMetBlake]

Records for snow and cold are definitely in jeopardy.

Temperature wise:

Monday, Jan. 27th: 19°F in 1897
Tuesday, Jan. 28th: 19°F in 1897
Wednesday, Jan 29th: 22°F in 1897 <---will likely break

Snow records:

Tuesday, Jan. 28th: 0.0 inches. Any amount will set new record (according to WRC)

If IAH receives more than 4.4 inches, it'll be the most since Feb. 12th, 1960 (54 years)

[Andrew]

Hmmm, not sure where you are seeing the 17. The GFS MOS 18z run has 19 at IAH. The 12z NAM has 25 Tues. night. Dewpoints are forecast to drop to 13 at IAH. If we have decent snow pack or ice we may easily break through 19---coldest since Feb. 1996.

The 17 comes from the 2m temp forecast

And also... hi!

Well look who is back. You missed us?

[tireman4]

Long time so no see Mr. T. My goodness.

[cisa]

Ok so I have a question...trying not to get too excited because I've lived here way too long. I've been reading on NWS, etc. talking little or no accumulation. Are they just being cautious? I know there's no way of knowing for certain. I live and work in Montgomery County and I'm just trying to formulate a game plan for the week. I'm not going to hold anyone to it thanks guys.

[Brandy3835]

Can anyone tell me what it looks like for the Beaumont area?

[wxman57]

Ok so I have a question...trying not to get too excited because I've lived here way too long. I've been reading on NWS, etc. talking little or no accumulation. Are they just being cautious? I know there's no way of knowing for certain. I live and work in Montgomery County and I'm just trying to formulate a game plan for the week. I'm not going to hold anyone to it thanks guys.

Short answer, yes. They say little or no accumulation in their public forecast then discuss how much moisture will be falling in the cold air in the internal forecast discussion.

[Mr. T]

Tireman, Andrew, what's up?

It's been way too long, huh. Hope all is well with you guys

It should snow around here more often. Brings us all together, boy I tell you what.

We've been through some busted winter events on here; hopefully, this one is the one. So far so good...

[jeff]

am i seeing this right? wxman actually being positive about cold and snow? i never thought i would see this day.,,,,,jeff being negative and wxman being positive. thank you wxman

The only possible good of cold air in winter is if there's snow involved. Otherwise, I'd rather have 100 deg temps in winter.

I am not being negative...I am being careful or the droves will come out of the wood work Wednesday whining about the biggest forecast bust ever.

While everyone on here is worried about snow amounts...the big concern is how people are going to get home on Tuesday when they go to work Tuesday morning with nothing happening. If it is 2 inches of snow or .05 of an inch of ice the impact on the roads is the same especially with temperatures as low as they are forecast to be. With meso banding I would not at all be surprised to see a few 6-8 inch snow amounts...but where this happens...your guess is as good as mine at this point.

[tireman4]

That is a pro met question. I would think it is ever changing and will be updated as more information is gathered.