January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[stormlover]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html\\

CMC did really good for our winter storm and now look what it shows for tues!!!!

[HouTXmetro]

getting very light sleet in humble again

[ticka1]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html\\

CMC did really good for our winter storm and now look what it shows for tues!!!!

what does this show

[jasons2k]

Re: melting - it can be a fickle thing. The air temp may be 29, but just the smallest amount of solar radiation will heat-up a rooftop (or road) quickly. It's very common for water to start pouring off of rooftops and into the gutters while the air temp is still below freezing.

The result can be some very long icicles once the sun goes back down. At this rate, there may not be much water left to re-freeze though. As Jeff pointed out, sublimation is in full-force with dry air moving-in.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian continues the theme of a strong Arctic front arriving Monday followed by a potent short wave/upper air disturbance. We are in the 100 hour time frame so it will be worth monitoring to see if the Global computer models are on to something or if this just nothing more than a very cold dry Arctic air mass settling across our Region early next week.

[ronyan]

The rain changed over to freezing rain about a half hour ago. There is a light glaze on plants outside and the roof line of the house. Temp 32.2F

[TxJohn]

Roads are looking busy around my area...on Eldridge and West Little York....more and more people from my neighborhood are going out.

[TxJohn]

Ryan Maue tweeted: "Canadian GEM gets wishcast award tonight (so far) with -8°F in south Georgia & single digits in FL panhandle Thurs"

Can anyone tell me what the Canadian GEM says for Houston?

[Kingwood31]

It's still below freezing at 29 degrees and whatever little ice we accumulated here in my area is MELTING. why? Lol...roads are dry in my neighborhood....everything is pretty much drying out and has been dry since I woke up at around 8am. In my area we just got a little coating of ice...no big deal here....this isn't anything compared to the last ice storm that hit my area.

Still don't get how stuff is melting in 29 degrees...

And regarding the potential next week. I'm not buying anything....things were looking promising for my area up until the hour before this event happened...and nothing really happened for my area. So I personally won't be taking the models seriously....

Parts of Louisiana got some good SNOW out of this....that wasn't even in the forecast....


I say on to the next as well....but if anything it'll be a repeat for my area next week...just a tiny bit of ice.

Don't feel left out bro,I didn't get much of anything either except some ice on the car..maybe next time

[Belmer]

I would like to point out that this storm system that came through last night into this morning definitely had a "surprise" to it.
First, models weren't picking up how early everything would start, as things started getting dicey north of Houston after 8pm or so and snow was quickly accumulating.
Second, models weren't showing very much, if any precip to fall once you got in far East TX into LA and quite a bit of sleet/ice and snow made its way eastward this morning causing problems for those folks. Even reports of NOLA getting in on some action after it certainly didn't look like that would be the case. Hope you saw something Harpman!

With all that said, winter storms in TX are hard to forecast and don't see that changing too much in foreseeable future. They always come with a surprise it seems as it did in 2011 when we were mainly forecasting snow and all we got was an ice storm.

So lastly, if you didn't get what you expected, as others have mentioned, another chance looks to be in store early next week. Just because models show something though, doesn't mean that will be the result you're going to get. Winter storms in TX are a wait and see as they happen.
So here is on to the next one!

I'll be heading to NWC soon to check out latest models. Woke up to 9 degrees here with a windchill of -1. Brrr! But it's currently 33 here in Norman and about 30 in Houston. 44 in Fairbanks. Don't see that too often!

Stay safe Houston!

Cheers.

[ronyan]

The 12z Euro is dry for TX next week, but very cold as it pushes the 850mb 0C line into Mexico and the -10C line SOUTH of New Orleans @120 hr!

Not sure how to view 2m temps from the Euro but the 850 level is impressive.

[unome]

http://www.drivetexas.org/Full/

http://www.drivetexas.org/mobile/ (don't use while driving)

most Houston area arteries are now shown with "ice/snow"

the ice-covered palm trees here look/sound awful :(

[TexasMetBlake]

I would have posted last night but couldn't remember my log in credentials. haha. Anyways, I'm in The Woodlands (off Rayford) and we had about 90% sleet with light snow mixed in periodically. I was able to get enough to encrust our cars with sleet and snow and enough of it collected on the roofs to give them a silvery, white color---especially in the eves. I'm not sure that this event met the Winter Storm Warning criteria for the area. In fact, I think it's very interesting how everything unfolded.

I just had surgery and am recovering so grant it I have not been paying close attention to anything but here's what I think. Take it for what it is worth because like I said, I haven't looked at squat.

The models had been advertising a strong arctic front to push off the coast with an upper-level, but weak, disturbance traversing the area. The main forecast challenge here was the brisk north winds that was driving in CAA and very low dew points that threatened to decapitate the entire event. Interesting that what unfolded was exactly the opposite.

The main forecast challenge was whether or not the precipitation was going to overcome the dry air (low dewpoints). Not whether or not the cold air would be in place.

I think the reason most of us ended up with a less significant amount of ice and snow was because the models really overestimated the dry air that would have been in place. The reality is we had a very moist atmosphere. I think this had a stifling affect on the amount of wet-bulbing that took place across the area leaving temperatures hovering at 33 or 34 degrees for hours (at least at my place) allowing most of what would have been freezing rain and sleet to fall as rain. Seems that a lot of moisture was ''wasted'' while we waited for temps to crack freezing. I know at my place the sleet would collect as long as it was falling. But once it quit, it melted.

The banding of moisture was also much further inland than many of us thought it would be---again due to dry air entrainment that was supposed to be in place.

Whether or not this met the ''Winter Storm Warning'' criteria or not is irrelevant (i believe NWSHGX recently adjusted the warning criteria upwards) at this point because the ice did indeed wreak great havoc on the area. I'm not sure if my analysis is spot on or not but without looking at anything that would have been my guess.

[TexasMetBlake]

I stand corrected. We did meet the warning criteria in many locations---even at IAH.

Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX


Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
NOUS44 KHGX 241937
PNSHGX
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-250745-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
137 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ENDING AT NOON ON JANUARY 24...


...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION...

LOCATION AMOUNT(INCHES)

THROUGHOUT TRNINTY COUNTY 1.00
LIVINGSTON 3.00
LIVINGSTON DAM 4.00
ONALASKA 4.00
GROVETON 1.00
TRINITY 1.10

THROUGHOUT WALKER COUNTY 1.00

THROUGHOUT MADISON COUNTY 1.00
MADISONVILLE 1.00

THROUGHOUT GRIMES COUNTY 1.00-1.50

THROUGHOUT SAN JACINTO COUNTY 1.00-2.00

THROUGHOUT HOUSTON COUNTY 1.00-2.00
CROCKETT 1.00
HUNTSVILLE 2.00


...FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/ICING...

FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH FROM BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND DOWN TO THE
COAST...THE PRECIPITATION FELL AS RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 0.05 TO 0.15 OF AN
INCH.

...24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 800 AM THIS MORNING...

...COOPERATIVE STATIONS...

ANAHUAC 0.32
BRENHAM 0.12
BELLVILLE 0.14
CLEVELAND 0.60
DOW FREEPORT 0.13
DANEVANG 0.19
EAGLE LAKE 0.15
HOUSTON WESTBURY 0.45
HUNTSVILLE 0.75
LIBERTY 0.30
LIVINGSTON 0.02
MADISONVILLE 0.36
MATAGORDA 0.50
RICHMOND 0.33
WEST COLUMBIA 0.50


...LOCAL AIRPORTS THROUGH 600 AM THIS MORNING...

HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL 0.30
HOUSTON HOBBY 0.19
COLLEGE STATION 0.17
GALVESTON 0.27

PEARLAND 0.20
SUGAR LAND 0.37
TOMBALL 0.41
CONROE 0.40
HUNTSVILLE 0.68
ANGLETON 0.19
PALACIOS 0.02

[Baseballdude2915]

30.8 here in Dickinson. Got drizzly mix over night, all surfaces have small icicles.
Morning drizzle actually cooled me off after the sun rose, I was dropping steadily until around noon due to evaporative cooling.

League City PD weatherbug is reporting 28.3.
I don't think I'll break freezing today, that is the biggest news for me.

[djmike]

Anyone have any info of driving conditions on hwy 90 between beaumont and houston? Need to make it to houston for work but dont want to get to liberty and find out the bridge is closed. If not, anyone know where I can find info for that stretch of road? Thanks

[tireman4]

Could we be doing this again? HGX says there is a possibility. Stay tuned...latest AFD from HGX....

FXUS64 KHGX 242112
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3PM...MOST AREAS HAVE HAD SFC TEMPS RISE TO THE 32-36F TEMP
RANGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST ICE/SNOW TO MELT. SEEMS THAT
MOST AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND LINE HAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. AREAS NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON HAD 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES FROM NEAR MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE.
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH COMMON WEST OF THOSE ARES TOWARDS
BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION. FARTHER SOUTH OF THAT LINE THERE WERE
GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ON
EXPOSED SURFACES. THIS HAS IMPACTED TRAVEL CONDITIONS AROUND
HOUSTON AND ON MAJOR ROADS WITH HIGHER OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
ALONG THE COAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.01-0.05 WERE MORE COMMON.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S AS CLOUD COVER THINS
OUT AND WINDS BECOME CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR ANY STANDING WATER LEFT ON ROADS AND ELEVATED
STRUCTURES TO RE-FREEZE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IF ANY
BLACK ICE DEVELOPS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY
INCREASE TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER STILL. BUT THAT`S WHERE IT STOPS AS IT
LOOKS LIKE WE GO OVER THE HILL ON THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE POLAR VORTEX
OVER HUDSON BAY (THERE I SAID IT) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING
FOR PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH CANADA AND THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD OUTBREAK WITH CANADIAN/ARCTIC
TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP WITH 20S/30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS BEEN THROWING A WRENCH IN THINGS
ON TUE AND DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION OVER TX. LATEST
12Z GFS IS CATCHING ONTO THIS TREND WITH THE ECMWF DRY. GFS BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC UNDER THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE PAC NW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS TIMED TO REACH S TX BY 12Z TUE WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING. GIVEN TEMPS IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WINTER PRECIP EVENT BUT SINCE THESE ARE THE
FIRST MODEL RUNS TO REALLY SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN 5 DAYS OUT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
QUICKLY ON TUE WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WED MORNING. MIN TEMPS
ON WED LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A
HARD FREEZE WARNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 25F NORTH OF HOUSTON. HOUSTON
AREA CURRENTLY RIGHT AT THAT MARK.

[skidog40]

is there any chance of the low in mexico can hookup with the low that just moved off, draw any precip.

[TxJohn]

Are they underestimating the cold for next week? Models are ranging from single digits to mid 20 to upper 20s for next week. Maybe they're playing it safe until the models come to a better agreement.....

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Antonio/Austin snippet this afternoon...

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
A NICE WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMALS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE WRN US BLOCKING PATTERN SENDS ANOTHER ARCTIC
INTRUSION OUR WAY MONDAY MORNING...AND MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE
NUDGING LOWER WITH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN MODEL TRENDS ALSO INDICATES ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT THE GFS
HAS FARED WELL WITH THE PAST FEW COLD AIR OUTBREAK PATTERNS AND IS
FAVORED OVER THE STILL DRY ECMWF. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MORE MATURE FRONTAL INVERSION THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR 5000
FEET AGL AND THEREFORE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ALREADY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. MODEL FORECAST DEW POINTS ALSO SHOW VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR AGAIN...LEADING TO GOOD CONDITIONS FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING PROCESSES AND A SLEET SNOW MIX FOR THE COOLER PARTS OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEING ONE THAT IS MOSTLY
FED FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC SEEMS COMPARABLE TO THIS PAST ONE
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL STRENGTH...BUT THERE ARE JUST A FEW GFS AND
CANADIAN RUNS TO LEAN ON FOR SUPPORT. THUS POPS WILL BE KEPT IN
THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE CATEGORY...
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SCENARIO OF THE CANADIAN MODEL PROVIDES SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CONFIDENCE OF INCREASED STABILITY FOR LATE TUESDAY...AND A DRY AND
COOL PATTERN IS SHOWN WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.


Corpus Christi...

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT A MILD SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AREA WIDE (MID 70S WEST) AS SWLY LOW LVL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH WED
NGT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS MON
THROUGH TUE NGT WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE LAST FRONT. GFS/CANADIAN/NAM BRING A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT-TUE RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND POTENTIALLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COOLS TO NEAR FREEZING. THE EC IS
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THE GFS
IS THE WARMEST MODEL AND THE CANADIAN THE COLDEST. WE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BUT TRENDED COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS MODIFIES MID-LATE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT
AND WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPEATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NATION
DRAWING A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.