January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Andrew]

Really think Houston and areas North and East are going to get hit hard. Things are really coming together for a decent storm overnight.

[redneckweather]

A friend of mine has gotten 3 to 4 inches of snow in Houston County and said it is like a blizzard n roads are getting bad. Wow! We had some sleet earlier that started to accumulate but has not melted off. It seems like we are stuck at 33 degrees.

[randybpt]

Andrew, what makes you think that.

[Paul Robison]

Really think Houston and areas North and East are going to get hit hard. Things are really coming together for a decent storm overnight.

Does this mean I'm not going to be able to use my stovetop in the morning to fix my oatmeal?

[Kingwood31]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 240452Z - 240845Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HOUSTON METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION THROUGH 4 AM CST WITH LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF SLEET EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 10 TO 20 KT NNELY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING NEWD FROM NEAR
BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM
THE TX HILL COUNTRY EWD ACROSS EAST TX INTO WRN LA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
INCLUDING THE 02Z HRRR SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
AS THE OCCURS...THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD MOVE SWD ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WHICH ALONG WITH A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB EVIDENT ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE A TENTH AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH FREEZING RAIN. A MIXTURE OF
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO.

..BROYLES.. 01/24/2014


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 30039397 29519499 29509644 30199676 30859613 30909448
30499393 30039397

[Andrew]

Andrew, what makes you think that.

The flow and building of showers out west really show that there should at least be light precip for most of the night into the morning. I think points east will definitely have a better shot.

[Paul Robison]

Which amount of ice does more harm to roads/trees/power lines? One tenth of an inch or one half an inch? I'm going to go for a walk outside overnight and watch this is why I'm asking.

[randybpt]

Have you seen the soundings lately at Beaumont I'm sitting at 31 with freezing drizzle
Where do you see the snow line east of houston

[HouTXmetro]

Sugar Land Airport reporting light snow. Can someone confirm on the ground?

[don]

radar really starting to light up along the I-35 cooridor

[Paul]

Andrew, what makes you think that.

The flow and building of showers out west really show that there should at least be light precip for most of the night into the morning. I think points east will definitely have a better shot.

I agree......the setup is looking really good compared to some I have seen in 2009-2010....where the bands setup will be key to how much some get....south of I10 looks ripe with better lift but everyone should see something. Conroe should already be in freezing rain from the radar returns I have seen....

[Paul]

Which amount of ice does more harm to roads/trees/power lines? One tenth of an inch or one half an inch? I'm going to go for a walk outside overnight and watch this is why I'm asking.

Jeff said .25 and above is where it gets dicey for power lines...winds will not help much either...my lines are buried thanks goodness

[txsunshine82]

Hello I'm new to the forum. Here in northern Liberty county we are getting light sleet, wind an ice is starting to form out here.

[djmike]

Randybpt....where in Beaumont are you. Im at I-10 and Hwy 90. (College). I haven't seen anything frozen yet. Hopefully real soon! Although the sleet/Frz line has passed us for about an hour now and is slowly crawling southward.

[Paul Robison]

Which amount of ice does more harm to roads/trees/power lines? One tenth of an inch or one half an inch? I'm going to go for a walk outside overnight and watch this is why I'm asking.

Jeff said .25 and above is where it gets dicey for power lines...winds will not help much either...my lines are buried thanks goodness

I suppose he expects .25 and above, huh?

[Andrew]

Which amount of ice does more harm to roads/trees/power lines? One tenth of an inch or one half an inch? I'm going to go for a walk outside overnight and watch this is why I'm asking.

Jeff said .25 and above is where it gets dicey for power lines...winds will not help much either...my lines are buried thanks goodness

I suppose he expects .25 and above, huh?

That will probably be a stretch. A tenth of an inch will probably be more likely. Remember some of it will be used to cool the ground. The ground isn't below freezing as of now. Bridges of course are more at risk. Depending on banding grounds could become an issue.

[djjordan]

Nothing but moderate drizzle at the moment with gusty winds. Temp is falling though so I expect the forecast is on track for the SGR area.

[Kingwood31]

Nothing but rain still in kingwood

[Paul]

Nothing but moderate drizzle at the moment with gusty winds. Temp is falling though so I expect the forecast is on track for the SGR area.

agree... the Sugarland airport has been reporting light snow since the sun went down...lol....it will be there though later so yeah forecast seems right....

[djmike]

Periods of light sleet now in Beaumont. Mixing with the rain ofcourse.