January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Portastorm]

Interesting setup. The trend looks to give my area the shaft once again like in 2004 when the moisture had too much dry air to overcome resulting in nothing but a cold dry wind while areas south of me got some solid snow accumulations. I'm hoping to see one solid big snowflake and I will call it a WIN.

I'm liking the direction the NAM is taking. Is it showing some good snow accumulations around Austin? Boy howdy, that will really get Portastorm all worked up!!! lol

LOL ... redneckweather, I've been burned so many times over the years ... getting excited about what a computer model shows and then it doesn't pan out ... I'm not worked up at all right now. I would say I'm mildly optimistic.

The NAM generally has a bias for being too overblown with precip amounts. I *wish* it would verify ... yeah, that would be great! But the more reliable models have much more modest precip amounts for Austin. I'll start to get excited if tonight's 0z models show snow/sleet. Hope you get to see some snow, fella.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z HIRES NAM (High Resolution) suggests banding features develop across Central and SE Texas as well as a Coastal low developing between Brownsville and Corpus.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests we will have the moisture albeit light with a Coastal trough and temperatures are cold enough to support wintry weather across most of Coastal Texas and back to the San Antonio/Austin area. Further N, the GFS suggests only very light amounts of moisture due to much drier air.

[redneckweather]

The GFS is good for....I like the NAM much better.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS is good for....I like the NAM much better.

I've been watching what has been happening to our E along the Mid Atlantic/ Great Lakes and even New England since the weekend. The Global computer models have been under estimating the qpf until about 24 hour out when they start to play 'catch up' and increase the qpf. The current GFS total precip accumulation is based on 72 hours from the NCEP model page.

[LarryCosgrove]

NCEP_84HR_NAM_PTOT_1200z_JAN_22.jpg

NCEP_84HR_NAM_PTOT_1200z_JAN_22.jpg

The 12z model runs so far are much more optimistic (if that is the proper word) concerning frozen precipitation in Texas for the Thursday/Friday period. There is some modest upper air support with a weak shortwave digging southeastward from Colorado; moisture fetch is much more organized than previously projected, with an upper disturbance west of Baja California showing linkage to the tropics.

The presence of cold air is always a factor in predicting snow or ice in the Deep South. The 0 deg C line at 850MB gets into the Houston suburbs before easing northward on Friday morning. Still, with a sloping, shallow Arctic regime reaching past the Gulf shoreline, the potential for sleet and freezing rain must be noted between sunset on Thursday and mid-morning Friday. It seems probable that the furthest southward extent of glazing potential will be close to an Alvin....Friendswood....Winnie line.

Vertical velocities (a good way to measure lift/force) are strong enough to create a serious ice storm in San Antonio and even into the north and west Houston suburbs. Austin may have to deal with a sleet>snow scenario before the entire precipitation area weakens and slides into the LA and SE TX portions of the Gulf Coast by Friday afternoon.

And yes, you can bet you will need to watch for updates. I can easily see a rare Winter Weather Advisory for south central and southeastern sections of the Lone Star State. Enough moisture + dynamics may exist in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau to warrant a Winter Storm Watch.

But I don't make those calls

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Larry youre scaring me again! You were right about the event in Feb. 2011

[stormlover]

CMC goes bonkers wow, look at this!!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[redneckweather]

Larry youre scaring me again! You were right about the event in Feb. 2011

Yep, I remember him saying that the snow was probably not going to happen back in Feb of 2011...and it didn't. This time Larry is on board with a winter weather threat for us down here. That's good Karma right there.

Larry, push that snow line into Montgomery County sir and thank you.

[Portastorm]

Larry, not only do I love WHAT you wrote ... but love the fact that you were able to take the time and post it HERE.

Thank you, sir. Look forward to reading your insights as we near this potential winter weather event.

[mcheer23]

I would extend that ice line down to cover some of Ft bend county.

[srainhoutx]

HGX is starting down the path to increasing their forecast to that of a bit more aggressive outlook concerning the Winter Weather Potential. If the Euro trends in the direction we have seen the other Global schemes as well as the shorter term meso guidance, I suspect will see some king of Winter Weather Advisory and possibly even Watches being hoisted across our Region later today. We will see.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 60S TODAY. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

MAIN CONCERN AND FOCUS OF AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL BE WINTER
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND QUITE POSSIBILY MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
EARLY GLANCE AT 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER AGAIN WITH NOT MUCH PRECIP AT ALL DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE NAM IS STILL SOMEWHAT WET BUT HAS MOST OF THE
PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES
THROUGH WET-BULB THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. LATEST SREF
PROBABILITIES HINT AT THIS. PRECIP TYPE FORECAST LOOKING LIKE A
MIX OF ZR/IP FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAY HAVE A MIX OF SNOW FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN BUT DEPENDS ON MOISTURE ABOVE -10C LEVEL
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. EVEN WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT COASTAL AREAS
AS COLD AIR AND WIND COULD ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO FREEZE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES BUT NOT NECESSARILY ROADS.

[Portastorm]

NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth (FWD) is also out with a mid-morning update. Geez, I wish EWX would have issued one but they seemed to have stopped down mid-morning AFDs a while back.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AND A 11 AM EXTENDED FROM NEAR MCALESTER TO NEAR BRIDGEPORT AND
BRECKENRIDGE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM DURING THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MUCH LESS
WARMING.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS WHERE...WHEN AND HOW
MUCH OF A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS EVENT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN 1/4 INCH TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE OUTLIER IS THE SREF MODEL WHICH HAS THE
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH TO ALONG I-20 AND HAS THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES CENTERED AROUND
COMANCHE. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRST PERIOD OF TODAYS FORECAST AT
MIDDAY AND CONCENTRATE ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

[cristina6871]

NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth (FWD) is also out with a mid-morning update. Geez, I wish EWX would have issued one but they seemed to have stopped down mid-morning AFDs a while back.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AND A 11 AM EXTENDED FROM NEAR MCALESTER TO NEAR BRIDGEPORT AND
BRECKENRIDGE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM DURING THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MUCH LESS
WARMING.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS WHERE...WHEN AND HOW
MUCH OF A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS EVENT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN 1/4 INCH TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE OUTLIER IS THE SREF MODEL WHICH HAS THE
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH TO ALONG I-20 AND HAS THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES CENTERED AROUND
COMANCHE. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRST PERIOD OF TODAYS FORECAST AT
MIDDAY AND CONCENTRATE ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

Oh, I wish some of that snow could filter into SE Texas! I would love to see a few flakes of snow......but this reminds me of a comedian I heard on the Ellen D show.......the lady was from Austin and she said the city had one flake of snow and they shut the whole city down!

[cristina6871]

after this little stint, what do the models show for February (early or mid)?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

after this little stint, what do the models show for February (early or mid)?

Normal to well below normal temps.

Normal precip.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC Winter Weather Desk is updating their freezing rain and snow probability graphics that now include during the day of Friday across our Region.

[djmike]

I would extend that ice line down to cover some of Ft bend county.

I would have to agree. I feel the ice line will be further south a tad.

[srainhoutx]

Updated 3 Day qpf valid 00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) to 00Z Sunday (Saturday evening)...

[srainhoutx]

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2014

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 23 2014 - 00Z Sat Jan 25 2014

...Frigid Arctic air mass to remain firmly in place across the central and
eastern U.S...

...Mix of wintry precipitation possible Thursday and Friday for portions
of Texas and Louisiana...

A large upper-level trough will remain in place across the eastern half of
the U.S. through the short range forecast period as Arctic air remains
firmly entrenched across these regions with temperatures well below
average. A fast-moving clipper-type system will bring snow to the Midwest
and Great Lakes tonight and into portions of the Appalachians and
Northeast on Thursday. An area of heavier/more widespread snow is possible
tonight over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan as upward atmospheric motion
is enhanced by an east-west oriented frontal zone over the Great Lakes.

This clipper system will usher yet another round of Arctic air into the
U.S., this one will spread farther south all the way into the southern
Plains on Thursday and to the Gulf Coast by Thursday night. As the
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico lifts across the Arctic front over Texas
and Louisiana Thursday into Thursday night, an area of generally light
precipitation will develop. As colder air infiltrates the region,
precipitation may fall as snow on the northern fringes of the
precipitation. Farther south, an area of sleet and freezing rain is
possible Thursday night into Friday morning across central and southern
Texas, extending all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast by early Friday
morning. Please refer to the QPFHSD product issued by the WPC Winter
Weather Desk for more specific details on the winter weather associated
with this system. By Friday morning, another clipper system will spread
scattered areas of snow across the Midwest.

Across the West, a weak upper-level disturbance will bring areas of snow
to parts of the Intermountain West and High Plains on Thursday. Along the
West Coast, generally dry conditions are expected to remain in place
through the short range period as an upper-level ridge of high pressure
over the Pacific will keep any significant storm systems from impacting
the western states.

Ryan