January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[TxJohn]

Starting to believe that,winter is over for us. Nothing is showing cold for us here the next cold outbreak looks to be heading wayyyy more east and south into Florida. Florida could see colder weather than what we had earlier. The trends and models are keeping a ridge over TX....we may get down to the 60s...and low 40s but nothing really chilly.

Maybe February we'll get something perhaps? If not...those two days of very cold weather was fun! December and November were great as well. I would say "hopefully a cooler than normal summer" but we'd probably shatter records this summer like we always do.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Starting to believe that,winter is over for us. Nothing is showing cold for us here the next cold outbreak looks to be heading wayyyy more east and south into Florida. Florida could see colder weather than what we had earlier. The trends and models are keeping a ridge over TX....we may get down to the 60s...and low 40s but nothing really chilly.

Maybe February we'll get something perhaps? If not...those two days of very cold weather was fun! December and November was great as well. I would say "hopefully a cooler than normal summer" but we'd probably shatter records this summer like we always do.

LOL, it never fails for some to say "winter is over" after a big freeze when the thaw is beginning. We have at least 6 weeks of decent potential of cold, and if the EPO keeps working like it is, we will see cool weather well into March/April.

Not poking at you in partciular TxJohn... this is standard across the board for cold weather lovers.

[Ounce]

11Z HRRR has most showers North of Houston metro, but there will be some scattered showers around today.


Reforecast (first 12 ensemble perturbations w/ bias adjustments) don't see to show a strong signal for either warm or cold the next two weeks.


That map is deviation from normals, not a forecast of actual temps.

Is it odd or normal that the "valid time" on this link shows May and June of 2013 maps?

[redneckweather]

Not sure why any of y'all want more cold weather. The only thing cold weather is good for is hunting and the holidays. Other than that, get rid of it!!

We all just saw what a very short lived arctic blast can do. I had a low of 15 degrees and my faucets froze solid. I had to put a heater on my well and protect my fruit trees. It looks like they made it but if that arctic hp would of hung around for another day or two then it would of been a lot worse. Y'all can have that arctic air crap.

Now a nice deep Canadian front with low/high temp hovering around 30 with a coastal low traveling up the Texas coast...I'm all about that!

[Portastorm]

Not sure why any of y'all want more cold weather. The only thing cold weather is good for is hunting and the holidays. Other than that, get rid of it!!

We all just saw what a very short lived arctic blast can do. I had a low of 15 degrees and my faucets froze solid. I had to put a heater on my well and protect my fruit trees. It looks like they made it but if that arctic hp would of hung around for another day or two then it would of been a lot worse. Y'all can have that arctic air crap.

Now a nice deep Canadian front with low/high temp hovering around 30 with a coastal low traveling up the Texas coast...I'm all about that!

YES! Let me buy this man a drink.

[TxJohn]

Any sign of the ridge in the SW going more west instead of right over SE TX? It's gonna block our arctic air..

[cristina6871]

i'm sorry, but this weather is not "extraordinary." The weather people are thinking 73 in JANUARY is amazing.

The long range models have to have some kind of cold weather coming to visit again.

[srainhoutx]

Finally after what seems like months of cold, cloudy, dank weather that started way back before Thanksgiving, we have a beautiful weather day ahead with very pleasant temperatures and sunshine. Get out and enjoy the January thaw. A weak upper air disturbance may cross our Region late on Sunday that is currently near the southern tip of Baja, but after that, Chamber of Commerce weather appears on tap while all the cold air drains down into Florida and we are under the influence of a Western Ridge. Those looking for a return to a colder pattern, fear not. We have at least another 6-7 weeks and as many of us old timers know, when Rodeo time draws near, it seems we have had more years than not where crazy weather develops and everyone has to bundle up in the finest cold weather Cowboy attire.

[TxJohn]

Florida is gonna snow before Houston. They're also gonna shatter cold weather records before us. Florida is the place to be if u want cold!

[srainhoutx]

After an outstanding mid winter day across our Region, an upper air disturbance will begin to trek East across Mexico tomorrow allowing for an isolated chance of showers/storms Sunday night before the pleasant weather returns next week.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH EVOLVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING DAY 2...AS SPLITTING REMNANTS OF THE
STRONG STORM SYSTEM/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
PROGRESS E/SEWD INTO THE PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM
ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/UKMET
INDICATING LESS AMPLIFICATION AND SLOWER ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE SRN
SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SRN SPLIT SYSTEM WILL AID IN THE EWD MOVEMENT
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN
TIP OF BAJA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE TX GULF
COAST.

...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO E TX AND FAR WRN LA...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION SPREADS E/SEWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO E TX/FAR WRN
LA...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GIVEN SOME RETURN FLOW/MOISTENING...
LOW LEVEL WAA...AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE BAJA TROUGH.
A SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH SUGGESTS THE TSTM POTENTIAL
SHOULD NOT REACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

..PETERS.. 01/11/2014

[Paul Robison]

After an outstanding mid winter day across our Region, an upper air disturbance will begin to trek East across Mexico tomorrow allowing for an isolated chance of showers/storms Sunday night before the pleasant weather returns next week.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH EVOLVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING DAY 2...AS SPLITTING REMNANTS OF THE
STRONG STORM SYSTEM/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
PROGRESS E/SEWD INTO THE PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM
ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/UKMET
INDICATING LESS AMPLIFICATION AND SLOWER ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE SRN
SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SRN SPLIT SYSTEM WILL AID IN THE EWD MOVEMENT
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN
TIP OF BAJA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE TX GULF
COAST.

...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO E TX AND FAR WRN LA...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION SPREADS E/SEWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO E TX/FAR WRN
LA...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GIVEN SOME RETURN FLOW/MOISTENING...
LOW LEVEL WAA...AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE BAJA TROUGH.
A SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH SUGGESTS THE TSTM POTENTIAL
SHOULD NOT REACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

..PETERS.. 01/11/2014

Could any storms be severe?

[srainhoutx]

Could any storms be severe?

Very unlikely. The storms if they form will be elevated in nature, not surface based. Just a couple of rumbles of thunder during the over night hours into early tomorrow and likely closer to the Coast where the upper air disturbance will track.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CNTRL U.S. WITH THIS FEATURE REACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

...SRN/SERN TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...

THE POLEWARD ADVECTION OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROMINENT OVER THE NWRN GULF INTO TX ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING THE REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL
OCCUR BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES
/REF. 12Z BRO AND CRP SOUNDINGS/...EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED AIR MASS MOISTENING AND WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A
FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/12/2014

[redneckweather]

We have been rather raw since mid/late October all the way till this past mini arctic outbreak. I know because I have been deer hunting in this weather since bow season started back in late September. With that said, we have had our cold weather for the fall/winter season. Sure, we will have a few decent fronts before Spring finally reigns supreme but there will be no arctic outbreaks for the rest of the winter season.

Now on the other hand, I still wouldn't rule out a deep front (lows around 29, high's around 35) that sticks around for a couple of days as we head into February with cloudy conditions behind it from a noisy STJ with possible low on the backside to play around with. What I mean by DEEP front is that all layers of the atmosphere are at or below freezing. We can still be around 33 to 36 at the surface and still get snow as long at it is cold up yonder which doesn't happen with these arctic fronts. This is the type of scenario that we need to bring us SNOW, not shallow bitter cold arctic fronts. Who cares about what is going on in the arctic. Just about all of these arctic fronts are shallow and if we were able to get moisture after one passes, it falls as freezing rain or maybe sleet. That stuff does nothing but cause damage and isn't fun to throw at people. All we need is a deep front to come down (not bitterly cold) with some moisture slung over the top of it. I think February will give us that chance.

As of now, I am really looking forward to a warm up. I still haven't got the chill out of my bones from hunting hard out in this weather for a couple of cold dreary months.

[Portastorm]

While the weather here in Austin yesterday was a true "Chamber of Commerce" weather day with 70s and blue skies ... we are, unfortunately, under the gun from cedar pollen. It was interesting yesterday morning as I was driving towards downtown with a vantage point showing me the city ... you could see this "fog" just above ground over Austin. Except, it wasn't fog. It was actually cedar pollen which is at all-time high levels.

I wish we could get a good, healthy rain to wash this stuff out of the air but it doesn't look promising. Heh, between the flu and cedar allergies you'll see a lot of sniffly/congested people here in the state capital.

[Katdaddy]

Clouds and rain showers approaching SE TX this afternoon.

[Paul Robison]

What are Monday's wind speeds expected to be?

[srainhoutx]

Over night rains have exited Texas and are ongoing across Louisiana. A strong Pacific front should usher NW winds and skies will clear by mid day. The upcoming work week looks to be pleasant with a couple of quick moving re inforcing cold fronts, one Tuesday and another Thursday that should keep dry conditions ongoing in the NW flow aloft as high pressure settles across the Great Basin.

Right now it appears that the Houston Marathon next Sunday may see some fog and temperatures in the 40's to start the race.

[wxman57]

Currently looking like good running weather (if you like running in cold weather) next Sunday. Upper 40s at the start of the race and mid to upper 50s by the end. No rain.

[Ounce]

Currently looking like good running weather (if you like running in cold weather) next Sunday. Upper 40s at the start of the race and mid to upper 50s by the end. No rain.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6zjan13.gif

Thanks very much for the update, wx. That temp spread works.

Actually for me, good running weather for a marathon is upper 30's at the start and 59 at the end, with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies so I don't get beat down by the sun.

[Ptarmigan]

Since the weather will be quiet this week. NWS Houston has links to historical weather.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/WxHistory/