December: New Years Eve Outlook

[jeff]

Still capping shown on the 12Z CRP sounding....UofH launched a 12Z sounding also which looks very suspect as it is saturated up to 300mb and shows a small cap around 700mb. This sounding does not match CRP or LCH really at all think it was likely contaminated. Cap is attempting to erode but things look a bit out of phase for much severe...maybe a wind gust or two or isolated tornado NE of Houston. HOU soundings alos showed fairly uniform wind profile so think the wind damage threat is higher than the tornado threat....it did show CAPE of 1661, but that seems overdone also.

[srainhoutx]

Watching that bow echo NW of San Antonio rather carefully. That may be the storm complex that gives us trouble in a couple of hours or so. Thanks for the update, Jeff.

[Portastorm]

Watching that bow echo NW of San Antonio rather carefully. That may be the storm complex that gives us trouble in a couple of hours or so. Thanks for the update, Jeff.

I have a sneaky suspicion that once that line of convection west of SAT moves into the warm air sector east of I-35, it's really going to blow up. Y'all be safe down there in SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch issued for all of SE Texas and a large portion of Louisiana until 6:00 PM:

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 580
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     950 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
     
     TORNADO WATCH 580 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     ARC003-017-027-073-139-220000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0580.131221T1550Z-131222T0000Z/
     
     AR 
     .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ASHLEY               CHICOT              COLUMBIA            
     LAFAYETTE            UNION               
     
     
     LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
     039-041-043-049-053-055-059-061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-
     097-107-111-113-115-119-123-127-220000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0580.131221T1550Z-131222T0000Z/
     
     LA 
     .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ACADIA               ALLEN               AVOYELLES           
     BEAUREGARD           BIENVILLE           BOSSIER             
     CADDO                CALCASIEU           CALDWELL            
     CAMERON              CATAHOULA           CLAIBORNE           
     CONCORDIA            DE SOTO             EAST CARROLL        
     EVANGELINE           FRANKLIN            GRANT               
     JACKSON              JEFFERSON DAVIS     LAFAYETTE           
     LA SALLE             LINCOLN             MADISON             
     MOREHOUSE            NATCHITOCHES        OUACHITA            
     RAPIDES              RED RIVER           RICHLAND            
     SABINE               ST. LANDRY          TENSAS              
     UNION                VERMILION           VERNON              
     WEBSTER              WEST CARROLL        WINN                
     
     
     TXC005-015-039-041-051-071-073-089-157-167-185-199-201-203-225-
     239-241-245-291-313-315-321-339-347-351-361-365-373-401-403-405-
     407-419-455-457-471-473-477-481-220000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0580.131221T1550Z-131222T0000Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ANGELINA             AUSTIN              BRAZORIA            
     BRAZOS               BURLESON            CHAMBERS            
     CHEROKEE             COLORADO            FORT BEND           
     GALVESTON            GRIMES              HARDIN              
     HARRIS               HARRISON            HOUSTON             
     JACKSON              JASPER              JEFFERSON           
     LIBERTY              MADISON             MARION              
     MATAGORDA            MONTGOMERY          NACOGDOCHES         
     NEWTON               ORANGE              PANOLA              
     POLK                 RUSK                SABINE              
     SAN AUGUSTINE        SAN JACINTO         SHELBY              
     TRINITY              TYLER               WALKER              
     WALLER               WASHINGTON          WHARTON             
     
     
     GMZ330-335-350-355-430-432-450-452-220000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0580.131221T1550Z-131222T0000Z/
     
     CW 
     
     .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
     
     MATAGORDA BAY 
     
     GALVESTON BAY 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
     NM 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM 
     
     SABINE LAKE 
     
     CALCASIEU LAKE 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM 
     
     ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...HGX...SHV...
     

[TxJohn]

They said we would clear out by early afternoon...does it look like we'll clear out?

Rain has been on and off in my area but nothing severe...just some good rain

[srainhoutx]

They said we would clear out by early afternoon...does it look like we'll clear out?

Rain has been on and off in my area but nothing severe...just some good rain

Visible imagery shows where the clearing line is currently across West Texas.

[unome]

windmap is always cool: http://hint.fm/wind/

hgx has an update for tornado watch: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

a piece of it:

1039 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 580 NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHED BRIEFLY INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING WITH COLLEGE STATION DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S AND NOW
BACK INTO THE 60S AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS OFF TO THE NORTH. MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL REMAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE. RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCREASES THE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE REGION AS OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY HAVE ISSUES BREAKING THE CAP. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO ADD
THE TORNADO WATCH. OF NOTE...THIS IS THE FIRST TORNADO WATCH FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY...AND OUR FIRST CONVECTIVE
WATCH SINCE EARLY JUNE. 38

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for all of SE TX until 600pm.

Capping inversion over the region is starting to erode as large scale lift increasing ahead of approaching upper level storm system. Cells so far this morning have not become severe, but upstream line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching along the dryline from central TX may pose a severe weather threat over the next 3-6 hours as it moves eastward into the area. Wind profiles remain supportive of weak tornadoes along with damaging straight line winds of 60-70mph. Think the threat for discrete supercells ahead of the main line is lowering and moving NE into LA at the moment and the main severe mode will be with the line approaching from the west. Embedded weak tornadoes within any kinks in the line will be possible.

Note cells are moving very quickly at 40-55mph and this will greatly limit warning lead times. If a warning is issued for your area take quick action.

[mckinne63]

Nice downpours in Stafford/Sugarland area earlier this morning. Only heard one or two claps of thunder. Not much wind either, just heavy rain. Luckily I wasn't too far from home. Looking outside now, the wind does appear to be picking up a bit here and there. I just raked up leaves yesterday, now you can't tell I did anything.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

TXZ180-201-259-261-211800-
HARDIN TX-NORTHERN JASPER TX-TYLER TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-
1100 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...JASPER AND TYLER
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1100 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES
NORTH OF CHESTER TO 10 MILES NORTH OF LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
VOTAW...THICKET...COLMESNEIL...ROCKLAND...WOODVILLE AND IVANHOE.

[wxman57]

Christmas week is looking cold, cloudy (by Christmas) with light rain. Enjoy the warmth today while it lasts...

[djmike]

Looks to me like the moisture is evaporating quickly now. Is this because the cap is holding strong?

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1117 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

TXZ221-211800-
WILSON-
1117 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILSON COUNTY UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1112 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
FLORESVILLE...
POTH...
KOSCIUSKO...
STOCKDALE...
SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...
PANDORA...

[srainhoutx]

Looks to me like the moisture is evaporating quickly now. Is this because the cap is holding strong?

Mike, another surface low is moving toward SE Texas. The 1630Z surface analysis suggests those storms beginning to line up are associated with the approach of the surface low. After that, we should settle down regarding any severe weather potential as the threat shifts E into Louisiana.

[djmike]

IMO, so far everything has been very unimpressive here in the Beaumont area. Light mist all day. Nothing like what the local media (for our area) has been chatting about for the last few days. Yes, I understand I may be jumping the gun and I'd be happy to insert my foot into mouth later, but by looking at the radar returns all morning (In the Golden Triangle area), it still continues to look unimpressive. When and IF the squall line approaches the area, it may prove to be different, but even the "main event" line seems to not be building enough southward and as a whole seems to be moving too fast NE to make it into the HOU/BMT area. Just my two cents.

[srainhoutx]

Mile, this is exactly why we tempered our discussions and in fact, never edited the Topic Title to something more strongly worded. I believe we do a fairly good job covering the potential of any weather event and temper it with reasonable discussions with the pros and cons...without the hype. Oh and CNN is in the house monitoring our weather community...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1237 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EASTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANSFIELD...
NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...
RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 130 PM CST

* AT 1233 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ZWOLLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANSFIELD...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES NORTH OF TOLEDO BEND DAM TO 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANSFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MANY...COUSHATTA AND CAMPTI...

[unome]

gusts are really picking up in Cypress

[SusieinLP]

What can be expected in New Orleans later today? Right now sunny quite warm and windy

[TxJohn]

New Years still looking cold? Joe BastardI saying that January is looking similar to January of 1994. January of 1994 wasn't anything special for us in SE TX though....