December: New Years Eve Outlook

[wxman57]

There is very little model uncertainty as to Wednesday's high temperature. All of the ensembles are tightly-clustered near 65F for the high (range is 64F-67F), so I don't understand the variance from forecast to forecast. There is tremendous uncertainty beyond Saturday, but none of the ensemble members (GFS or Euro) indicates a significant freeze through the end of the month. Euro's coldest ensemble member is 30F for next Monday and again on the 27th.

[srainhoutx]

One thing I have noticed in the updated CPC ensemble predictors are increasing signals of a +PNA and a -AO, although the spread is greater regarding an negative phase of the AO. The Artic Oscillation or AO has been extremely positive while the Pacific/North American or PNA which when positive suggests ridging over the NE Pacific Ocean has briefly gone positive to only fall back to the negative solution, albeit not too negative. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation or EPO has been strongly positive as we have mentioned with the very warm sea surface temperatures across the North Pacific extending into the Gulf of Alaska. The EPO has been depicted by the guidance to relax, but it has remained steadfast in the strongly positive phase. I suspect a lot of the volatility we are seeing via the guidance with these wild swings are the fact that the pattern continues to remain volatile and I suspect that will not change in the near future. The Pacific has driven the pattern so far and that likely will continue into the foreseeable future.

[Texas Pirate]

wish the models could get it together - want to go hiking over Christmas
in the Hill Country. Grrrr.

[jasons2k]

Txsnowmaker: thanks for compiling that. Pretty amazing there is such a spread. No wonder the general public is a bit skeptical in their accuracy.

Looks like it'll be 14 years and counting since a 1989 repeat. Just remember that again next year when, oh about December 5th-10th and the GFS has its annual cold-a-geddon model runs and everyone goes bananas again. It's becoming an annual ritual so take it with a grain of salt.

[sambucol]

Txsnowmaker: thanks for compiling that. Pretty amazing there is such a spread. No wonder the general public is a bit skeptical in their accuracy.

Looks like it'll be 14 years and counting since a 1989 repeat. Just remember that again next year when, oh about December 5th-10th and the GFS has its annual cold-a-geddon model runs and everyone goes bananas again. It's becoming an annual ritual so take it with a grain of salt.

This is getting very confusing....at least for me! Does the possibility exist for some really cold weather again now?

[cperk]

I don't think you will find anyone on this forum that would disagree with Jason's comments on the GFS.It behaves this way on tropical weather too.I'm guilty on getting caught up in it's nonsense too,and I should know better,but we still have plenty of winter left.I will be patient next time and wait until the models have a better grip on what's in store for us in SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

A brief update following the 12Z Global operational guidance today regarding the late next week into the weekend time frame. The GFS is much slower with the front and stalls it well N. It also suggests the upper level low slowly progressing E across Northern Mexico into Texas arriving late next Saturday into Sunday. The European and Canadian are a bit more progressive with the Baja upper low and also further S with the front and both suggest the boundary will move to the Coast late on Saturday afternoon. It is also noteworthy that the HPC/WPC is discounting the GFS solution. Also thy are using a blend of the operational Euro and its ensembles (70%) with a 30% inclusion of the GEFS ensembles. It does appear portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and areas mainly N of the Red River Valley will have p type issues of the Wintry nature while further S in the warm sector, stormy continues may well be possible next Saturday. As a tidbit looking toward the Christmas time frame, the Euro and Canadian suggest the pattern repeats and may once again become unsettled. Also there appears to be several Alberta clipper systems dropping snow across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes/Upper Mid West with heavy Lake Effect snow extending into New England and possibly into the Northern areas of the Mid Atlantic Region for those with travel plans over The Christmas Holiday period. Further south into the SE Region, heavy rainfall is possible. Florida and the Bahamas look to be under the influence of a SE Ridge and appear to be the places that will escape any cold weather. I should have planned a trip to the Florida Keys for Christmas...

[TxJohn]

Still no mention of cold temps....I think you'll be good here Srain! 70 degrees om Christmas is gorgeous weather.

[wxman57]

GFS ensembles continue warmer through next weekend with no freeze through December for IAH. Some of the members have lows in the upper 20s the last 4 days of December, but that's it. No big freeze near Christmas, it appears.

[TxJohn]

GFS ensembles continue warmer through next weekend with no freeze through December for IAH. Some of the members have lows in the upper 20s the last 4 days of December, but that's it. No big freeze near Christmas, it appears.

Good thing I didn't get stuff to wrap the pipes. Now I need to bring out the shorts n flip flops for Christmas.

[srainhoutx]

Sorry John. My thresh hold for shorts and t shirts is the 80's. I'd be willing to wager we won't be anywhere near 70 for Christmas. Near 50...perhaps. The Euro/Canadian solutions suggest a light freeze on the 23rd. The American models are clueless at this time. Meanwhile, another day of -10 F+ -vs- climatology today. That makes day 10 of below normal temps for us.

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z GFS meteogram. I think it may be too slow in bringing the front through next Sunday, but it's in line with the Euro as far as Christmas and post-Christmas temps:

[skidog40]

lets remember winter hasn't started yet and seen 30's multiple times already this year. I personally from looking at the middle east getting a lot of snow in which they haven't seen in 125 years, reading an article about Antarctica ice cap is expanding and the low temps I believe the earth is cooling again. Just advertising low teens or 20's of this time of year is eye opening.

[TexasMetBlake]

lets remember winter hasn't started yet and seen 30's multiple times already this year. I personally from looking at the middle east getting a lot of snow in which they haven't seen in 125 years, reading an article about Antarctica ice cap is expanding and the low temps I believe the earth is cooling again. Just advertising low teens or 20's of this time of year is eye opening.

Not sure why. Historically, some of the coldest weather events in our city's history has occured during the week of Christmas. As mentioned in my previous post, even IF this arctic front materialized bringing wide spread teens to the area, it would have been FAR from record breaking. Record lows are as follows at IAH:

Dec. 21st: 21° (1973)
Dec. 22nd: 13° (1989)
Dec. 23rd: 7° (1989)
Dec. 24th: 11° (1989)
Dec. 25th: 11° (1983)
Dec. 26th: 18° (1983)

[Heat Miser]

83 burst our pipes. 89 was so cold you really couldn't enjoy the snow all that much. Plus it fell that first day and the rest was miserable, miserable cold.
A nice snow event would be great, but record breaking cold, not so much.

[Ptarmigan]

Not sure why. Historically, some of the coldest weather events in our city's history has occured during the week of Christmas. As mentioned in my previous post, even IF this arctic front materialized bringing wide spread teens to the area, it would have been FAR from record breaking. Record lows are as follows at IAH:

Dec. 21st: 21° (1973)
Dec. 22nd: 13° (1989)
Dec. 23rd: 7° (1989)
Dec. 24th: 11° (1989)
Dec. 25th: 11° (1983)
Dec. 26th: 18° (1983)

Very true. Some of the biggest cold blasts in December and winter have occurred around Christmas. December 1983 and 1989 freeze are real outliers along side with February 1895, February 1899, January 1930, January 1940, and January 1949.

[vci_guy2003]

Global warming. I expect to be on the beach Christmas Day

[Kludge]

GFS ensembles continue warmer through next weekend with no freeze through December for IAH. Some of the members have lows in the upper 20s the last 4 days of December, but that's it. No big freeze near Christmas, it appears.

So are the current models correct here or not? Are you willing to go on record with your opinion of what the sensible weather will be during Christmas week?

[TxJohn]

KHOU 10pm newscast: Mario said the cold front we were expecting this week looks like it'll miss us. And for Christmas it looks like we'll be above freezing for the holidays....not as cold as they initially expected.
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All this talk about ensembles and such....I'm sure the ensembles are trending a bit warmers and time draws nearer. Both the European and GFS seem to almost agree that we aren't gonna get freezing temps for the holidays......based on what I'm reading from many. Even Joe Bastardi has yet to comment on it....he's focusing more on the NE.


I knew this was gonna happen. Now I understand why people say "I won't believe it's snowing in Houston till I see it" I need to learn to adopt that idea. I won't believe it'll be in the teens until the night before.

Beach weather for Christmas....how great!

[Belmer]

KHOU 10pm newscast: Mario said the cold front we were expecting this week looks like it'll miss us. And for Christmas it looks like we'll be above freezing for the holidays....not as cold as they initially expected.
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All this talk about ensembles and such....I'm sure the ensembles are trending a bit warmers and time draws nearer. Both the European and GFS seem to almost agree that we aren't gonna get freezing temps for the holidays......based on what I'm reading from many. Even Joe Bastardi has yet to comment on it....he's focusing more on the NE.


I knew this was gonna happen. Now I understand why people say "I won't believe it's snowing in Houston till I see it" I need to learn to adopt that idea. I won't believe it'll be in the teens until the night before.

Beach weather for Christmas....how great!

I wouldn't necessarily say highs in the 50s are beach weather. Though, Canadians might argue my opinion.