December: New Years Eve Outlook

[ronyan]

My understanding from experience of model watching for years is that it's common for cold to disappear from the models in this time frame. I wouldn't "write it off" until we have at least a couple days of consistency. Highs in 40s with lows in the 20s isn't exactly balmy weather for SE TX.

[Portastorm]

My understanding from experience of model watching for years is that it's common for cold to disappear from the models in this time frame. I wouldn't "write it off" until we have at least a couple days of consistency. Highs in 40s with lows in the 20s isn't exactly balmy weather for SE TX.

Yep, exactly. Anyone who is making promises or assurances about temperatures for late next weekend into the following week should be taken lightly.

[jasons2k]

Hmm, after defending the pro mets one goes off and makes such a proclamation. Sorry, have to agree with others' postings, it's WAY too early to make a prediction like that. I'm disappointed as they should know better.

[TxJohn]

It seems like every major met is downplaying the arctic air. A few is expected...but when everyone does it...from Dallas to Austin...to Houston...it's kind of shocking. Anyways this will be my last comment till the models come into further agreement..don't want to fill the page up with spam. But as always bring on the TEENS...or SNOW!

[jeff]

I am not sure mets are downplaying the event...just being careful especially those on TV. There is a reason why NWS mets rarely speak about events beyond 7 days. For whatever reason writing it is almost like putting it in concrete regardless of the disclaimers and the uncertainty. People hear what they want to hear and many get their weather information from the morning DJ on the radio who really just make things up. I heard on the radio this morning Houston will be "frozen" Christmas week and had over 10 e-mails today just about next week. For the local NWS to comment in there AFD on the "rumors" you can see from that how out of control things have become...welcome to the internet and the social media...they drive there own weather!

[TexasMetBlake]

I think a lot of the hype comes from amateur meteorologists who have zip background in meteorology who live by every model run without proper interpretation. With only a blue line in mind (540 thickness), they take to facebook or twitter with outlandish proclamations. Then word spreads. The reality is it is too far out to know but I am not seeing evidence of an '89 or '83 event. a 1030 something high, while sizeable, isnt noteworthy. The source region is cold, yes. But the source region is cold every year. The relocation of the PV will be important in the xoming days and just how amplified the trough gets. Last week, nearly 67% of the ciuntry is snow covered so this will aid in the refrigeration of the airmass. However, the ecmwf wants to split the airmass and sending some of it east. If that verifies, it'll get cold but not record breaking. speaking of record breaking, even IF we last nights 00z gfs verifies with a 1053mb in CO (per awips), to be "record breaking" it would require temps to drop well into the single digits which isnt likely even in this worse case. the record for the 23rd is 7 degrees at IAH and 11 degrees on the 25th. so keep that in mind.

[Texas Pirate]

Love our HGX NWS:

AS OF NOW...THERE
ISN`T ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP OVER
CHRISTMAS. OF COURSE...ANY 10-PLUS DAY FORECAST IS A CRAP SHOOT
BUT LATE PERIOD TRENDS ARE FOR A COLD...ALBEIT NOT FRIGID...CHRISTMAS
WEEK. IF THE PACIFIC RIDGE DOES AMPLIFY FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE EXISTENCE OF A DESCENDING POLAR VORT
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS...THEN CREDENCE CAN BE GIVEN FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC OUTBREAK CHRISTMAS WEEK. UNTIL THEN...STAY TUNED! 31

[vci_guy2003]

Boooooooooo

[cristina6871]

it was too good to be true with the very cold air....well, there's always next year.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Geez, we are too far out to say one way or the other... Wait till Tuesday

[Andrew]

Some of the reactions here are priceless

[Texas Pirate]

Yeah they're wx buzz killas aren't they?

But, they rock my world

[Andrew]

Yeah they're wx buzz killas aren't they?

But, they rock my world

Watch tomorrow the conversation will be polar opposite

[Stormrider]

"Polar opposites". LOL

[Andrew]

"Polar opposites". LOL

I was hoping someone would pick up on that

[srainhoutx]

A Pacific cold front and finally some drier air followed by a secondary surge of 'colder' air will finally clear our Region today bringing gusty NW winds and push this nagging fog away and offer some much needed sunshine -vs-/cloudy/cold and gloomy weather we have been experiencing expect for one brief day this past 7 day period. It still looks chilly and a light freeze may be possible for inland locations early Sunday and again early Monday with a continuation of below normal temps (which are highs in the mid 60's and lows in the mid 40's) until Tuesday when we trend to Normal temps and hopefully a few days of 'warmer' temps before the high pressure ridge slides E and a return flow sets up of the Gulf. Fog may become an issue by Wednesday as SE winds off the cool Gulf shelf waters moves inland, but hopefully we can get into the 60's as a more zonal upper flow develops through the mid week period.

Looking toward late next week...things may get a bit more interesting as light precip develops and the onshore increases as pressures fall to our N and W as a vigorous trough drops S into the Desert SW and an strengthening upper low develops. To our N across the Plains, that much talked about Arctic boundary will begin to approach the Southern Plains as a positive tilted trough extends from the Great Lakes Region back into Southern California. There is some potential for thunderstorms to develop Friday into next Saturday, some possibly strong as the Arctic front sags S into Texas. There still remains far too much uncertainty in the medium to long range to pin down any one solution regarding what our sensible weather will be into next weekend and beyond. There is some potential for wintry mischief across the Southern Plains/Southern Rockies extending into N Texas likely in the form of freezing rain and perhaps some sleet and snow chances the further N you go, but a safe bet at this time and this far out is just a chilly rain. Once again this looks to be a shallow Arctic cold front with a warm nose aloft with the SW flow above the surface. Sound familiar? As mentioned, this is a very difficult and complicated forecast and we do expect changes and will likely not have a firm handle on the evolution of what may occur until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Meanwhile, get out and enjoy the sunshine the next several days and check back for any changes. Personally, I am sick and tired of this gloomy cold weather and look forward to seeing the sun...finally! This is Texas after all. Not New England or the Northern Plains!

[sambucol]

Are we "out of the woods" for possible pipe busting temps now? No need now to get winter preps done this week?

[srainhoutx]

Are we "out of the woods" for possible pipe busting temps now? No need now to get winter preps done this week?

As of this morning, the upper air pattern does not support any long duration sub freezing temperatures for the Houston/SE Texas area.

[TxJohn]

Well that's a bummer....maybe next winter.
Just like I suspected....nothing but 30 degree cold.

[sambucol]

Are we "out of the woods" for possible pipe busting temps now? No need now to get winter preps done this week?

As of this morning, the upper air pattern does not support any long duration sub freezing temperatures for the Houston/SE Texas area.

Is this one of the back and forth occurrences of the models, or are we in the period where the models are more consistent in coming together for a valid forecast? Just trying to decide if I need to do anything for cold weather preps. Thanks!