December: New Years Eve Outlook

[srainhoutx]

Law Enforcement officials NW of Austin in Williamson County report 40-50 cars stuck on flyover US 183A southbound and SH 45 eastbound.

[unome]

the forecast for Cypress no longer has freezing rain :D

happy dance - hope it stays that way...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-95.6987

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see how much of the Western and Central US now has some snow cover. Those cold N to NW winds will have little in the way of modifying over the next several days.

[wxman57]

Models continue to back off on the sub-freezing cold in Houston next week. GFS says 34 on the north side on Wednesday and Euro says about 31 that day. No freezing rain for the Houston metro area, just cold rain. Note the big rain event predicted for next Thursday (3-4").

[srainhoutx]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
903 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-061700-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART
903 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.NOW...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THRU 11 AM...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
EXTENDED FROM COMSTOCK TO FREDERICKSBURG TO BURNET. MOVEMENT IS
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
EXPOSED AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THRU 11 AM.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELED...

.TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS FOR THE DAY. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TODAY.

TXZ163-176-177-195>198-061630-
/O.CAN.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-131206T2100Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...CROCKETT...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA
917 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AREA.

[cristina6871]

thought the threat was more for tomorrow into tomorrow night...i was hoping for a little colder air.

[TxJohn]

So is our cold blast canceled? Because the models seem to be coming in warmer....they don't even have us hitting 32 degrees. Seems like the beautiful 20 degree weather won't happen. Is it a model trend or just one lousy run underestimating the cold air?

[wxman57]

So is our cold blast canceled? Because the models seem to be coming in warmer....they don't even have us hitting 32 degrees. Seems like the beautiful 20 degree weather won't happen. Is it a model trend or just one lousy run underestimating the cold air?

Just went outside at lunch. Cold air is definitely here. Model trend in the past 12-18 hrs has been for less of a push of cold air into southeast Texas next Monday/Tuesday. Maybe a light freeze in north Houston next Wednesday. No hard freeze.

[cristina6871]

ahh man! I wanted the really cold air. What happened to it?

[TxJohn]

It feels Warmer than 40 degrees here. Feels around 45 or so..here in my area

[djmike]

Boo

[wxman57]

ahh man! I wanted the really cold air. What happened to it?

Let me guess, you were born after 1983 and 1989? We had 3-5 days of continuous sub-freezing temps with lows to single digits at times back then and both major freezes were just before Christmas when many were out of town. They came home to burst pipes in the attic and flooded homes.

I have 3 bunches of bananas on my trees in the backyard and I'm glad they didn't freeze. Should be just about ready to pick soon.

[unome]

this is plenty cold for me - still have flowers blooming in the yard, would hate to see the landscaping take a dive - hope they make it through tonight !

[Portastorm]

I'm not about to dismiss any threat of light wintry precip in south central Texas. Not with a "noisy" flow from the west-southwest and not after seeing shortwaves not get picked up well by the models and then creating havoc. EWX appears to have the same concerns.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
236 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
236 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...

THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
PRODUCING WEAK LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA OF CONCERN
FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET.
THE WINTRY MIX WILL END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ON ELEVATED
AND EXPOSED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[cristina6871]

ahh man! I wanted the really cold air. What happened to it?

Let me guess, you were born after 1983 and 1989? We had 3-5 days of continuous sub-freezing temps with lows to single digits at times back then and both major freezes were just before Christmas when many were out of town. They came home to burst pipes in the attic and flooded homes.

I have 3 bunches of bananas on my trees in the backyard and I'm glad they didn't freeze. Should be just about ready to pick soon.

No, actually I was born in 1971 - and I have pictures of the snow of 1973 where several inches fell in Houston. I just like the cold weather. I remember the colder winters and the ice storms of the past.

[Portastorm]

I should add to my previous post, Wxman57, that this amateur eye does not foresee anything even remotely close happening here in south central Texas this weekend compared to what North Texas is going through. I'm thinking light amounts here too -- worst case -- but perhaps issues a little more significant for us in the Austin area because I think temps will be colder this weekend and whatever does fall will create trouble.

Then again, it's hard to argue against the drying trend of the models. While each has its deficiencies and biases ... some things cannot be ignored.

[unome]

from HGX: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmIHO1JS-Bk

Webcast For The Potential For Freezing Drizzle/Rain Saturday And Saturday Night


and updated discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

000
FXUS64 KHGX 062135
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A CHILLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHED THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL AGAIN ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THE ONLY THREAT TO TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WOULD BE IF THERE
WERE ANY WET SPOTS ON ELEVATED ROADS WHICH COULD FREEZE OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BRENHAM TO NEW WAVERLY TO CORRIGAN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT TO LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK. 38

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING TODAY AS EXPECTED AND
CURRENTLY RUNNING 20-25 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 15-25 KNOTS IN THE BAYS.
WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY FOR ALL THE WATERS
BUT THE FAR WATERS MAY NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 18Z FOR A FEW HOURS.
COASTAL TROUGHING SHOULD HELP TO RELAX WINDS SOME AND TURN THEM A
LITTLE MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY HELP TO TEMPER THE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS BACK UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS VERY SLOW RELAX OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO AR/MS/TN.
WARM FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLE SEA FOG.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR GLS AND UTS WITH N-NNW WINDS OF
10-20G20-28KT. PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. MOIST UPGLIDE RAPIDLY RETURNS SATURDAY
ON THE 290 AND 300K SURFACES WITH IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
EXPECT THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER GOING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT FOR CLL/UTS TERMINALS.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 27 35 29 42 35 / 10 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 32 38 34 44 41 / 20 40 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 38 44 41 50 48 / 20 40 40 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45

[mckinne63]

ahh man! I wanted the really cold air. What happened to it?

Let me guess, you were born after 1983 and 1989? We had 3-5 days of continuous sub-freezing temps with lows to single digits at times back then and both major freezes were just before Christmas when many were out of town. They came home to burst pipes in the attic and flooded homes.

I have 3 bunches of bananas on my trees in the backyard and I'm glad they didn't freeze. Should be just about ready to pick soon.

I remember the 1989 freeze well! We had pipes that burst in our home. Luckily I was home, dh was not. Being a young pup I didn't know where the shut off was. Not a fun time. No water for christmas. We made do, neighbor had water so we showered there and I did the bucket brigrade to try and make dinner. Ceilings had to be ripped out, carpets ripped up and plumbing fixed. Of course all that took lots of time as others were experiencing much the same.

[mckinne63]

I just like the cold weather. I remember the colder winters and the ice storms of the past.

I like the cold too. Born and raised in Wisconsin. Just don't want the freeze and ice. I will take snow though.