September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[jasons2k]

Just now reading up (busy day but Happy Friday all). This afternoon's AFD almost reads like the NWS is using warning criteria to issue a watch.

I think there is a real potential for flash flooding tonight. I see classic training setting up. There's nothing offshore cutting-off the inflow/LLJ.

This is a nighttime event - on a Friday. By the time any flooding unfolds and warnings are issued, it will be too late. The point of a watch is to warn people ahead of time, not to play catch-up during real-time events. They should have issued a FFW like all the surrounding forecast offices to warn people.

Saying they're going to 'wait and see what happens' isn't going to cause anyone to change their Friday night plans!

Sorry if I sound harsh, but flooding is a serious thing, especially at night, and I'm a bit sensitive to the topic.

[Rip76]

Looks like a bit of a dry slot down south, or a "worked over" atmosphere.

[djmike]

Is the front supposed to stall right along the coast onshore tonight or will it stall right off the coast?

[jasons2k]

Mesoanalysis shows PWATS up to 2.7" down towards Brownsville - there is PLENTY of moisture transport.

[Katdaddy]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
654 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

TXC157-201-210200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0060.130920T2354Z-130921T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-
654 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 653 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
PARTS OF FORT BEND COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
SUGAR LAND...ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...HUMBLE...RICHMOND...JERSEY
VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...GREATER HEIGHTS...SPRING BRANCH
NORTH...SPRING BRANCH WEST...ALDINE...MISSION BEND...PECAN GROVE...
TOWN WEST...MEADOWS...ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...SPRING VALLEY...
GREATER GREENSPOINT...ADDICKS PARK TEN...WESTERN MEMORIAL PARK...
AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...SPRING...
MEADOWS PLACE...HEDWIG VILLAGE...FULSHEAR AND HILSHIRE VILLAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

[Rip76]

Looks like that line is thinning out just a bit.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Ft Bend and Harris Counties. Pre frontal trough is sagging S and additional storms are firing into Mexico SW of Laredo. The upper vortex associated with Manuel remnant is about to cross the Rio Grande N of Del Rio. Also 95L circulation is about 130 miles S of Brownsville moving N. Training showers and storms should increase across the area and sag S overnight. It's pouring here in NW Harris County at this time.

[Rip76]

Srain,
I didn't look that far back to Laredo.

Wow.

[jasons2k]

Um yeah. This event is the real deal. Again, unlike some of the last few events, there isn't a big blob of convection just offshore cutting off the inflow. As of now, there is a clear path for the LLJ to collide with the incoming (and stalling) trough. Classic training setup. It's also pouring here and the ditches are already full.

Still a bit beside myself there isn't a flash flood watch for tonight. I'll let that go...for now.

[Rip76]

I think this will pass through Houston rather quickly.

Maybe more on tap for later/tomorrow?

[TexasBreeze]

I think it will progress thru at a decent pace maybe except on the coast.

[srainhoutx]

Nearing 3 inches with most of that falling since around 6:15 PM and still raining heavily.

[Rip76]

It does appear to be slowing down a touch.

[srainhoutx]

HGX adds Montgomery County to the Flood Advisory and extends that Advisory for Ft Bend and Harris Counties. The pre frontal trough has slowed. Variable winds here and NW winds at IAH.

[unome]

too bad it couldn't have come a 1/2" at a time over the last couple weeks

[txflagwaver]

About a half inch here so far...rains pretty hard but only for a few minutes. Happy it's not flooding though, and happy to get some rain period.

[Rip76]

Thinning out for sure.
I'll definitely take what I can get though.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Ft Bend and Harris Counties.

[ticka1]

raining with thunder and lightning since about 8:30pm- closemto 3 inches and still pouring and radar showing lots of trainng

[Rip76]

I feel like AZ in Pearland.


Ok, not anymore.