September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[Rip76]

Thinking Hurricane Ingrid at 4?

Or at 2pm. Numbers are there.

[srainhoutx]

Thinking Hurricane Ingrid at 4?

Or at 2pm. Numbers are there.

Hurricane Ingrid at 4:00 PM full package.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon update form Jeff:

Ingrid poised to become a hurricane.

Discussion:

Near continuous data from multiple USAF and NOAA aircraft indicate Ingrid is nearing hurricane intensity. The latest surface pressure reading was 988mb (29.18 in) and maximum flight level winds of 76kts (87mph) about 13 miles north of the surface center which reduces to around 70mph at the surface. Flight meteorologist onboard the NOAA aircraft just now arriving into Ingrid indicate an eyewall has formed and this is also visible on satellite images. It is very likely Ingrid will be upgraded to a hurricane at the 400pm advisory package this afternoon. Ingrid turned NNE overnight and is now moving northward at 7mph as indicated by recon fixes. Deep convection continues to develop over the center with well-defined banding features to the north and east of the center. There is a slight bit of wind shear impacting the southwest side of Ingrid from EPAC tropical storm Manuel reducing the outflow in that region.

Track:

Ingrid is moving northward due to a weakening of the high pressure over TX. Over the next 24 hours this high pressure cell is expected to intensify forcing Ingrid to turn NW and then due W and approach the east coast of Mexico north of Tampico in the next 48-60 hours. While most of the global track guidance is in agreement on this scenario, how quickly Ingrid reaches the coast is the main difference between the different models. The GFS lingers the system for the next 3 days before making landfall while the ECMWF has it inland in about 48 hours. The NHC forecast track in nearly down the middle of the multi-model consensus and has Ingrid crossing the coast in just over 48 hours which seems reasonable as long as the storm continues to move.

Intensity:

Ingrid is in a favorable environment for intensification with upper level outflow defined in all areas except the southwest side and is over water temperature of 83-86 degrees. An eye like feature continues at times be visible near the center of the deep thunderstorms and based on the data from the aircraft Ingrid is very near or already a hurricane. Intensity guidance continues to not be very aggressive with intensification and shows some shear impacting the storm over the next 24 hours. Almost all the guidance caps the intensity at around 80-85mph. Thus far shear has not seemed to have much impact on the system nor its organization and the intensity guidance has been too low. The official forecast peaks the intensity at 80mph, but it is very possible given the current trends that Ingrid could become a stronger hurricane than currently indicated.

Impacts:

Biggest impacts continue to be aimed at the lower TX coast where tidal flooding appears likely and rainfall flooding possible.

There have been no changes to the forecasted above normal tides and seas along the TX coast starting today and lasting into possibly the middle part of next week. Even with Ingrid intensifying, the track of the system remains far enough to our south to only direct higher swells in our direction. Total water level rises of around 2.0 ft at times of high tide on Sunday-Monday still appear possible which could cause some minor flooding on the beaches where wave run-up is possible.

 

[SusieinLP]

I'm glad we don't have to deal with surge and wind but dang it, I keep seeing our rain opportunities drying up much like my front lawn. Cold front rain usually is down to a drizzle once they pass the I10 corridor. I'm just losing all hope to seeing anything significant anytime soon

[srainhoutx]

Two of our members of the KHOU Weather Forum, HurricaneJosh and wxmx will be intercepting Ingrid. For those interested in following their intercept to gather scientific data and video of Ingrid you can follow their updates on facebook: https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone or on American Weather Forum: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... ng-ingrid/

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA
OF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS
BEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF
THE 2013 SEASON.

BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR
HURRICANE.

INGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE
THE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE
THE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE
MODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR
ABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO
THE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[ticka1]

will ingrd do a loop?

[tireman4]

Two of our members of the KHOU Weather Forum, HurricaneJosh and wxmx will be intercepting Ingrid. For those interested in following their intercept to gather scientific data and video of Ingrid you can follow their updates on facebook: https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone or on American Weather Forum: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... ng-ingrid/

Be safe guys. Do well and send us lots of pictures!!!

[srainhoutx]

will ingrd do a loop?

There are some indications that an area of low pressure will develop in the monsoonal gyre that will remain in place over the Western Gulf and head generally ENE bringing increased rainfall chances for Coastal Texas and Louisiana next week.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN BY
LATE SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[unome]

http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/tx.php?x=1

Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 737 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPLENDORA...OR NEAR CLEVELAND...MOVING WEST
AT 20 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...CLEVELAND...WILLIS...THE WOODLANDS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
SHENANDOAH...SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...CUT AND SHOOT...PLUM
GROVE...NORTH CLEVELAND...WOODLOCH AND THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE
CONROE.

Instructions: FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. IF ON OR NEAR LAKE CONROE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
Target Area:
Liberty
Montgomery
San Jancinto

[skidog40]

how much further north is this 2 headed monster going until Brownsville needs to worry?

[skidog40]

the high pressure seems to be fading a tad

[srainhoutx]

the high pressure seems to be fading a tad

We have an inverted trough draped along the Matagorda Bay area and the frontal boundary washed out well to our NE. Areas along and W of the I-45 Corridor may see scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow with locations to our SW seeing heavier storms and better rain chances thank to the Ingrid circulation.

[cisa]

Are we still looking at potential activity at the end of the week?

[Texas Pirate]

HOLD MY EXCITEMENT BACK
HGX DISCO on our upcoming rain this week:

AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...
THE WHEN AND WHERE OF MID TO LATE MORNING INITIALIZATION IS KEY
TO EVENTUAL AFTERNOON COVERAGE. CHANCES ARE THAT MANY WILL RECEIVE
AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF INCH THROUGH MID-WEEK...

I hear Ed's lawn crying.

[srainhoutx]

Almost an inch of rain on my lawn the past 24 hours. My lawn is singing!

[skidog40]

not saying it wont go to mexico but last few frames of satellite shows a block

[skidog40]

look at coversion of storms in middle of gulf. one jog to the right and man we got problems.

[Texas Pirate]

AWESOME RING AROUND THE MOON TONIGHT

Rain in 5 days.