September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the recon I'm thinking this may jump straight to Ingrid at 5:00.

Yep. I agree.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro Ensembles Mean Sea Level Pressures and 500mb upper air analysis suggest the N trend continues.

MSLP:

500mb:

[jeff]

I dont see any recon data yet suggesting a TS. Found 1003mb surface pressure, but fairly weak winds...around 20-30kts.

[ejburas]

We have TD10...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932013_al102013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309122053
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXTREME RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

09122013 TD 10 4 PM CDT 210133W5_NL_sm.gif

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

TD # 10 has developed in the Bay of Campeche.

Data from the USAF aircraft and radar data from MX indicates a broad area of low pressure has formed and is organized enough to be declared a tropical cyclone. The depression is moving toward the W at 7mph with a dropsonde recorded surface pressure of a very low 1003mb.

Track:
Steering currents are very weak and the current W at 7mph motion will likely slow to less than 3-4mph in the next 6-12 hours. High pressure over the US Gulf coast will help produce a general but very slow WNW track in the general direction of the eastern MX coast and this is in agreement with most track guidance. The current official NHC track forecast is very near the center of the main global model consensus and has the center crossing the eastern MX coast around midday Monday. It should be noted that the right (eastern) edge of the forecast error cone does clip extreme south Texas.

Intensity:
Surface pressure from the aircraft has come in fairly low, but the system is spread out and large resulting in only 20-30kts of wind near the center. Large systems tend to take some degree of time to consolidate an inner core and both sea surface and upper level conditions appear favorable for slow but steady intensification. Intensity guidance continues to have a fairly large spread (minimal TS to 70kt hurricane) which could be a result of some land interaction or possibly upwelling of colder water from below the sea surface due to the slow movement.

Impacts:
No changes to the impacts of higher tides which may reach around 2.0 ft above normal this weekend on the upper coast at times of high tide. This is generally below the levels that cause in major impacts, but some beaches could see some high water especially by Sunday as wave setup from building swells traps water near the coast. Still not too sure if and when any deeper moisture makes it this far northward and possibly brings some rainfall. Better shot at potentially drought breaking rainfall looks aimed at S TX. Would not be surprised to see a 40-50 inch total out of eastern Mexico by the end of next week either.

Note: Several USAF and NASA drone missions are planned into this system over the next few days so there should be a plethora and near continuous feed of good data.

[Kludge]

So does this discussion need to move over to Hurricane Central now?

[srainhoutx]

So does this discussion need to move over to Hurricane Central now?

We can keep it here since we have folks trying to find their way back from the login issues and it may have some influence on the local and regional forecast.

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z GFS has trend further N and now suggest landfall N of Tampico about 100 S of Brownsville.

[ticka1]

i have a question how many tropical storms or hurricanes have hit hgx agre from BOC?

[maroondreams]

Ed - I love ya and all your posts but DANG every post is definately glass half empty. (even if you are right)

Oh well..... Please excuse me while I break out my rain dance in my front yard.

[jeff]

i have a question how many tropical storms or hurricanes have hit hgx agre from BOC?

The Bay of Campeche does not like to give up its tropical cyclones. It takes some pretty strong troughing to reach down a grab a TC in that area...Opal 95 is an example. Those troughs tend to not be around until Oct and then the system is ejected NE toward the NE Gulf or FL. We can get weak TS sliding up in June. Last several years with the ridge over TX everything has pretty much gone W into MX.

[srainhoutx]

The TUTT dropping SSW from Texas may keep TD10 In check and maybe even keep it from becoming vertically and expose the circulation center for the next 24 hours or so. Also it does appear there are multiple vorts rotating around a broad area of low pressure. I wouldn't be surprised to see some wobbling or stair stepping if you will over the next day or two lending to a bit more Northerly track that currently expected. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Another subtle shift N with the 10 PM Full Package Advisory. At bit stronger once shear relaxes on Saturday and more of S Texas in the cone.

[Kludge]

My sense is that we're looking at a Very rare situation where, at this late point in the season, an EPAC and a WATL storm are trying to form at the same time and in such close proximity. There are a number of very unusual dynamics in play. I don't intend to over-dramatize the situation, but I have a feeling that there is about to be an extreme Fail in the forecasts (largely due to over-dependence in models, and models have not been programmed with this rare setup).

One of these two developing storms will lose out, and (in my non-professional opinion), the one that "wins" will steal the moisture and energy and surprise the experts. Stock up on popcorn... this will be a fun weekend....

Edit to say...we're on a new page...so forgive my copying forward...

[Rip76]

Srain,
Shift in GFS?

[srainhoutx]

Srain,
Shift in GFS?

That and the Euro. The NHC in-house model shifted a bit N as well.

[Kludge]

My sense is that we're looking at a Very rare situation where, at this late point in the season, an EPAC and a WATL storm are trying to form at the same time and in such close proximity. There are a number of very unusual dynamics in play. I don't intend to over-dramatize the situation, but I have a feeling that there is about to be an extreme Fail in the forecasts (largely due to over-dependence in models, and models have not been programmed with this rare setup).

One of these two developing storms will lose out, and (in my non-professional opinion), the one that "wins" will steal the moisture and energy and surprise the experts. Stock up on popcorn... this will be a fun weekend....

[srainhoutx]

One last point then bedtime...Not sure I have seen so many RECON assets tasked for a system in the Gulf before. A U2 NOAA retrofitted high altitude spy plane, a NOAA DC-*8, A Global Hawk drone, A G-IV, P-3 Orion and C-130J's. There is a great deal of data to be gathered and ingested in the guidance output over the next several days. Stay Tuned!

[Kludge]

One last point then bedtime...Not sure I have seen so many RECON assets tasked for a system in the Gulf before. A U2 NOAA retrofitted high altitude spy plane, a NOAA DC-*8, A Global Hawk drone, A G-IV, P-3 Orion and C-130J's. There is a great deal of data to be gathered and ingested in the guidance output over the next several days. Stay Tuned!

I'm heading outside now to launch my hi-tech recon cruiser...



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If the rubber band holds-up, I'll post the data here in a few...


Seriously though... this one will likely be weird.