August - Warm and Dry Weather Returns To End The Month

[Texas Pirate]

Goodbye 92L, Hello 94L - rather quick at declaring...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

The tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico has weakened over the past 24 hours. The surface circulation noted in satellite images on Friday has weakened into an elongated trough of lower pressures extending from the Bay of Campeche to the LA/MS coast. There is no longer any surface circulation and any development is no longer expected.

After showing very wet solutions yesterday, model guidance has backed away from the idea of the deep tropical moisture over the central Gulf of Mexico making its way into the TX coast. It now appears most of the this moisture will be directed NE into the SE US on the eastern side of the trough over the W Gulf. GFS rain chances for Tuesday which were near 70% yesterday are now at 7%.

Dry air will continue to dominate TX for the next 72 hours before some Gulf moisture begins to move into the region by the middle of the week. This should be enough to get a few storms going on the seabreeze front from Wednesday onward but coverage will be in the 20% range.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

The tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico has weakened over the past 24 hours. The surface circulation noted in satellite images on Friday has weakened into an elongated trough of lower pressures extending from the Bay of Campeche to the LA/MS coast. There is no longer any surface circulation and any development is no longer expected.

After showing very wet solutions yesterday, model guidance has backed away from the idea of the deep tropical moisture over the central Gulf of Mexico making its way into the TX coast. It now appears most of the this moisture will be directed NE into the SE US on the eastern side of the trough over the W Gulf. GFS rain chances for Tuesday which were near 70% yesterday are now at 7%.

Dry air will continue to dominate TX for the next 72 hours before some Gulf moisture begins to move into the region by the middle of the week. This should be enough to get a few storms going on the seabreeze front from Wednesday onward but coverage will be in the 20% range.

[skidog40]

don't blink

[Rip76]

Looks like whatever is in the gulf is beginning to move slowly westward.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue just posted an image of the 10-day Euro total precip for the U.S. Good thing we're not in KS, OK or MO. I'm not sure if the link below will work, but here goes...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BSDhnCfCEAIDKRW.png:large

[Ptarmigan]

Ryan Maue just posted an image of the 10-day Euro total precip for the U.S. Good thing we're not in KS, OK or MO. I'm not sure if the link below will work, but here goes...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BSDhnCfCEAIDKRW.png:large

Parts of Kansas and Missouri were quite wet recently.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Fairly active radar early this morning with numerous thunderstorms around Matagorda Bay and activity developing along the coast into Galveston Bay.

Slug of deep tropical moisture with PWS near 2.0 inches which had been across the central Gulf of Mexico has advanced toward the coast overnight. This tropical air mass will continue to spread inland with showers and thunderstorms moving inland along the seabreeze front.

Good news is that the ever present upper level high that has been over TX for much of the summer is shifting northward and allowing deep easterly flow to develop…which will open the area to westward moving tropical waves. Without any increase in mid and upper level heights and no mid level warming…capping…expect near daily rain chances of 30-40% for the next several days. Tropical waves will help to enhance daily rain chances as they pass across the region. One such wave looks to arrive over the weekend with rain chances possibly peaking out in the 50% range.

While not a drought breaker, this pattern is wetter than the recent several weeks and hopefully most areas will see some wetting rainfall over the next several days. Clouds and rainfall will keep temperatures near normal for mid August.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical funnels are possible today and likely the rest of the week for our Coastal tier of Counties as increasing deep moisture of tropical nature spreads inland each day.

[jasons2k]

One day they say we're gonna move into a wet pattern, then the next day they say not so fast the drought continues, now today it's here comes the rain again. I just hope the forecast sticks this time !!

[unome]

SciGuy's blog ( http://blog.chron.com/weather/2013/08/w ... cmpid=hpbn ) is rain-tastic also - hope it reaches up here !

http://youtu.be/TzFnYcIqj6I

[mckinne63]

Keeping my fingers crossed for Stafford. I see some storms near us on the radar, just need it to move a bit farther! The wind is picking up, very cloudy, but don't see any rain clouds yet.

[Andrew]

One day they say we're gonna move into a wet pattern, then the next day they say not so fast the drought continues, now today it's here comes the rain again. I just hope the forecast sticks this time !!

Always a good thing when the upper levels support rain. Mid level ridging looks to setup in the middle of the country and the door should be wide open for the tropics. Looks like a good setup where we will have at least multiple days of a steady stream of moisture. All 12z runs of models have been more bullish with precip totals through the week. They have also extended these chances farther north with multiple waves crossing the region. Lets hope this door stays open for a while because it will be a nice change of pace.

[mckinne63]

Just a few little droplets here in Stafford. Missing a good chance. Oh well, at least the temps are down with the clouds.

[jasons2k]

Sea breeze came thru and everything fell apart...

[Rip76]

Rain at my house = In a gadda da nada....

[unome]

Rain at my house = In a gadda da nada....

lol... I love that song

this pics from SR Facebook:

[Texas Pirate]

Was awoken this morning by something very strange : pounding rain against the window....
Loveliest sound I ever did hear..........then I saw a DOUBLE RAINBOW!

[SusieinLP]

Rain all around but none in my neighborhood.

[jasons2k]

The NWS evening update...the roller coaster continues....