August - Warm and Dry Weather Returns To End The Month

[unome]

a pretty interesting update on 92L - not sure what this kid's track record is

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... for-texas/


and from EOSDIS WorldView (might not work i n IE) http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldvie ... geographic

[Andrew]

Shows what a nice shortwave placed at the right time can do.

[txflagwaver]

[Andrew]

Ed, Considering a couple of days ago the chances of a Texas landfall were minimal I think it is to early to say what rain chances look like, especially without a stacked system. Who knows if the mid level center takes over or if the llc can draw some convection. Until we get an actual defined system (if we ever do) I don't think the models can really tell us too much right now. I suspect they will bounce around more.

[Paul Robison]

I think we should consider this recent bout of severe storms a dress rehersal for the coming of 92L to the Houston area, folks, esp. for those folks without power now. Note models!

[redneckweather]

We got our rears handed to us just south of Lake Conroe Dam. I swear it looks just like the aftermath of Hurricane Ike. Trees down everywhere, the smell of oil and gas in the air from chain saws and no power...just came back on 15 minutes ago actually. I guess I got lucky since the rest of the road (minus a few houses to the east) are still in the dark. I can walk outside and hear the generators. What a flash back.

[skidog40]

when red forms at night keep an eye out. this storm would be huge if it had no shear.

[wxman57]

Big line of storms yesterday, but not in SW Houston. They passed to my east again and I'm not far from the SW corner of 610. Got a big 0.04". Just enough to dampen the street for a few minutes. We may well get some rain out of 92L on Monday/Tuesday. There were always two possible tracks for this system.

1. It develops into a TS - in that case it gets picked up by the trof in the northern Gulf and is taken northward toward SE LA to the FL panhandle.

2. It doesn't develop - it continues moving WNW into Mexico

The models assumed it would develop early on (which looked quite likely), and they took it northward. Development did not occur and it's taking option #2. I'm not good enough yet to look at a satellite picture 3-4 days ago and determine it would not go north.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the mid/upper level circulation that has been present N to NE of where the surface low is located has began moving further away and slowly gaining latitude. Convection is beginning to build SW toward the surface reflection, but dry air existing off the Texas Coast should keep development in check today. Moisture and storms continue to stream NE toward MS/AL and the Florida Panhandle. While the near term chances of development look to be a bit weak, tomorrow into Monday moisture should begin to drift N toward the NE Mexico/Texas Gulf Coast. As NWS Houston/Galveston mentioned this morning, everything depends on what becomes of the surface low and if it actually develops.

08172013 1325Z SW Gulf VIS latest.jpg

08172013 06Z NCEP TC Genesis Probs genprob_aeperts_2013081706_altg_000_120.png

08172013 3 Day QPF 10Z d13_fill.gif

08172013 12Z 92L aal92_2013081712_track_early.png

[Rip76]

That QPF map looks great if it would move about 50 to 60 miles northward.

[djmike]

That's what I said. I noticed yesterdays QPF starting crawling westward, this morning it already looks better than last nights! Just a few more miles and we would be in great shape! All I want is all that moisture!

[unome]

our forecast high went from 98 to 90 for Monday & now showing a 30% chance of thunderstorms

it's after 11 am & still only 82 - gotta love that !

[srainhoutx]

Mid day update from the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) Model Diagnostic Discussion regarding 92L and its evolution and potential tracks prior to the 12Z Euro guidance arrival:

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: NORTH OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

WHILE THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET TROPICAL...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER PROVIDES A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EVEN IF THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT BECOME
A NAMED STORM...IT WILL STILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION IN PLAY. IN RECENT MODEL
CYCLES...THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE TX/MX BORDER. THE BETTER
CLUSTERING IN THE ATCF GUIDANCE/HIGH-RESOLUTION HURRICANE MODELS
IS JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TX. COMPARED TO THIS IDEA ARE THE 12Z
NAM/00Z UKMET WHICH ARE FURTHER TO THE NORTH BRINGING THE LOW
CLOSER TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CMC REMAINS THE
MOST INTENSE OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS OVERAGGRESSIVE GIVEN
THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. FOR
NOW...NO CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SHOWS THE FORECAST SUGGESTED
BY THE ATCF GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOMETHING NORTH OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF WOULD BE THE CLOSEST OPTION. THE SECOND ISSUANCE OF THE
PMDHMD WILL TAKE NOTE OF THE DAILY MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL
WITH NHC WHICH MAY ALTER THIS PREFERENCE.

[unome]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND LESS
DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...DEVELOPMENT IS LESS LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxman57]

Latest GFS sure doesn't bring any of 92L's moisture into Texas. Heavy rain stays offshore. Canadian is more generous, but it loos suspicious. Not tropical system moving ashore, just scattered showers/storms all week across Texas. NAVGEM says scattered daytime showers this week. Some pretty dry air over Texas now. Dew points in the mid 50s here, lows tonight in the upper 60s.

[jeff]

indeed...both 12Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are really dry. Last nights 00Z and 06Z were much wetter and at least gave a glimmer of hope for some wetting rains. Of course it could switch back to wet. TX tech model was wet also, but now keeps most stuff offshore. Do not think things will moisten back up as quickly as the models were showing last night...probably more by Tuesday.

[Ptarmigan]

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has rain for us.

[Andrew]

If the southern LLC wins out then I really don't see much precipitation for us around here early in the week but good news is that a onshore flow should take shape in the middle of the day which could really enhance sea breeze activities.

[unome]

The area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has degenerated into a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Environmental conditions are becoming unfavorable for development. The system has a low chance - 10 percent - of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and five days.

[Andrew]

Looks like our initial rain chances will be slim over the next couple of days. 92l and its llc seemed to have completely collapsed and all that is left is the weak Northeastern mlc. Conditions should deteriorate for the BOC and gulf as the trough progresses and the 850mb vort max (currently located north of the tip of the Yucatan) should get sheared northeastward towards the central and eastern part of the gulf. Whatever is left over in the BOC should continue on the Westward/WNW track into central or extreme north mexico. Most models are pretty conservative on rain chances as most stuff should stay offshore. What does look promising though is the onshore flow that should develop into the middle of the week from raising heights in the eastern gulf. This should at least elevate rain chances slightly throughout the middle/end of the week. Looking at the longer range things should become more active in the Atlantic in the coming weeks. The MJO is projected to enter into phase 8 /1 which should help decrease heights across the Atlantic and give a nice boast in activity. The next wave that is expected to leave the African coast looks to exit at a low latitude which with the help of the ITCZ could track across the Atlantic. Nice mid level ridging is foretasted to setup across the Atlantic and should extend to the eastern part of the U.S. This should keep the wave from recurring to early and a possible U.S. threat looks possible. Models are showing that ridging won't be too dominate over SE Texas so it should allow for a good onshore flow which means we need to make sure to keep an eye on anything that gets in the gulf. Overall I expect things to intensify over the next couple of weeks in the tropics and possible locally.