SusieinLP wrote:txflagwaver,
Did you get any rain? It's still raining here in La Porte...
Not really..really light rain for the most part. Only enough to fill one rain barrel as of this am. It seems to split right over my area. Nothing by the Bay here .
I had a brief heavy down pour just before 8 AM up here in NW Harris County. The 12Z early Track and Intensity guidance for 92L is shifting W and a little less robust with development.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MUCH DEPENDS UPON THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY QUITE DISORGANIZED
AND NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODEL FORECASTS. AIRCRAFT RECON FLIGHTS
LATER TODAY WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS THAT
WILL ALLOW THE MODELS TO BETTER FORECAST ITS EVOLUTION. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1155 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 18 2013 - 12Z THU AUG 22 2013
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TO BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST
OF A FEW KEY FEATURES WHICH WILL BE PLAYERS IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EARLY
ON TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL ALONG AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES
TROPICAL IN NATURE...IT WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. IN GENERAL...MODELS VARY WITH
THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z CMC BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE SURFACE PRESSURES AND TRACKING THE
DISTURBANCE UP THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. MEANWHILE...BEYOND EARLY
MONDAY...THE 00Z UKMET IS A MINORITY SOLUTION IN TAKING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF TX. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
TO ALLOW THE SHEARING ENERGY TO MERGE/BECOME ABSORBED INTO A MEAN
UPPER TROF SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
LATTER FEATURE IS GENERALLY WELL RESOLVED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE EAST. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS ALONG
WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN MAINTAINED THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY. AS TIME PROGRESSES
ONWARD...THE GFS SUITE WAS MUCH QUICKER IN SLIDING THE LOWER
HEIGHTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN AN ELONGATED
TROF AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC. FINALLY...LOOKING
OUT WEST...A WEAKNESS OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY/MID-NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE PAST
SEVERAL 582-DM SPAGHETTI PLOTS AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...THE
PAST FOUR RUNS OF THE GFS APPEAR TOO SLOW TO MOVE THIS TROF AND
ADDITIONALLY LAST IN WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT THE SYSTEM. EVEN
THOUGH THE GFS DIFFERS IN ITS SOLUTION...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD
SUGGEST A MEAN TROF WILL SET UP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE RATHER UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FROM
THE SOUTHERN U.S. STRETCHING UP INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE PAIR OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IMPACTING THESE REGIONS. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR THE CENTRAL U.S...BROAD SCALE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURE READINGS ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL
LURK TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
THE WPC PROGS DID NOT CONSIDER ANY OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS GIVEN
ITS SLOW NATURE WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY AND QUICKER NATURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES. INSTEAD...DAYS 3 AND 4 FOLLOWED AN UNEVEN
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE LATTER EVENTUALLY BEING
REMOVED AS IT SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TX. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE BLENDED TOGETHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.
RUBIN-OSTER
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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So there IS still hope for us SRAIN to get some moisture from whatevers left of 92? Thats what I took from the discussion above. Please say yes. Amuse me please!
Disorganized tropical disturbance moving into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. High resolution IR satellite images show a well defined swirl of low clouds now located over the southern Gulf of Mexico NW of the Yucatan peninsula, but there is no thunderstorm activity near this circulation. In fact it is surrounded by dry air with all the thunderstorm activity well to the NE over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
What appears to be happening is the upper level part of the system is being carried off to the NNE by the trough over TX and the weak low level part of the system is being steered WNW to NW into the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is the low level system that will be tracked and monitored for additional development over the next couple of days.
Track:
The consensus of the forecasting models have come into slightly better agreement over the past 24 hours with a system track toward the WNW or NW toward MX or TX. There is still potential for a stronger system to head more N or NNE toward the central Gulf coast, but this idea is starting to look less likely with such a weak and disorganized system. Still much uncertainty without a well defined center to track and guidance continues to have big disagreements between each run and each other.
I would advise residents along the TX coast to remain alert to developments over the weekend since the threat has generally increased to the western and NW Gulf.
Intensity:
Not a whole lot to talk about here until a defined center forms and can develop deep convection. This may finally happen over the next 24-36 hours over the southern Gulf of Mexico. A large mass of dry air is found over the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico and shear values at times may be high over the next several days. Conditions in the Gulf are marginal for some slow development. Would not at all be surprised to see a tropical storm form at some point.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM AND HAVE
TAKEN THE PERSISTENCE APPROACH OVER ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION.
Morning Discussion out of the NWS in Corpus Christi.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THEN DEVELOPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE DISTURBED WEATHER
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND ITS DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...AND
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL QUESTIONS STILL EXIST
INCLUDING HOW MUCH ENERGY IS PULLED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY THE TROUGH...AND WHETHER A PORTION OF THE ENERGY/DISTURBED
WEATHER CONTINUES WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. ALSO...WHETHER OR
NOT A WELL DEFINED CLOSED CENTER EVER DEVELOPS LEADS TO A GREATER
RANGE OF SCENARIOS. UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
CLEARER IT IS TOO SOON TO HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THOUGHT THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO
MEXICO/TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
COORDINATED WITH TAFB AND SURROUNDING OFFICES ON WIND AND SEA
FORECAST OFFSHORE...WITH A NORTHEAST WIND AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS
SHOWN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT
"SPAGHETTI MODEL PLOTS" AVAILABLE OF THE INVEST LOW SHOULD BE USED
WITH ABUNDANT CAUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED
NATURE OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM.
From NHC tropical weather discussion this morning:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WATERS
EXTENDING FROM 30N88W ALONG 28N91W TO 26N95W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE TROUGH. A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER TAMPICO MEXICO COVERING
THE W GULF S OF 29N W OF 91W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W DRAWING MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY MON AND INLAND
OVER FAR NE TEXAS OR SW LOUISIANA LATE MON INTO TUE. THE LOW
WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
This sounds in line with the Brownsville and Corpus soundings. I'm holding out hope and will continue to monitor over the weekend. It would be nice to get some rain from this.
Rip76 wrote:From WXman57, we may see some rain from this early next week.
Maybe. If this disturbance ever moves to the WNW or NW. Tropical model consensus shifted to south TX but global models indicate little or no rain. They both can't be right.
Rip76 wrote:From WXman57, we may see some rain from this early next week.
Maybe. If this disturbance ever moves to the WNW or NW. Tropical model consensus shifted to south TX but global models indicate little or no rain. They both can't be right.
KFDM-TV here in Beaumont, pops went from 20% to 60% for Mon and Tues! Hmmmmmmm...... Also looked at the latest 7 day QPF and the moisture seems to be moving west....Hmmmmm again.
Crossing my fingers for some healthy rains on my lawn!!!! It is bone dry in my yard. Hate when the grass crunches when you walk on it!!!! Hopefully we do get a Tropical Storm in our area next week to really give us some badly needed water. Got my fingers crossed!!!!
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
419 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 418 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE CONROE DAM...OR NEAR WILLIS...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .
IF ON OR NEAR CONROE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
From Kerry Cooper at KFDM-TV in Beaumont : Dry weekend in store behind front. By Monday moisture levels increasing ahead of Tropical Wave. Tropical wave should move ashore over South Texas late Monday increasing our rain chances. 60% Mon and Tues!
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