N. ATL Hurricane Season 2013 Discussions

[wxman57]

What FIM link are you using, Ed? I don't see any 12Z run at this site:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/

[Andrew]

GFS has been also bouncing around on developing the Caribbean system. It either develops it and sends it into south Texas/ Mexico or the East Gulf. Going to be hard to get it up in the central gulf with the low level flow pushing things west.

[srainhoutx]

The FIM 9 was somewhat in favor of a circulation developing in the SW Gulf of Mexico near the surface in about 168 hours. This tends to fit the NCEP TC Genesis Probabilities that are 'sniffing' a spin up later this coming week. That said this appears to be more of a rain potential than a wind threat at the moment for our Region which we need. We will monitor the reliable computer guidance to see if something actually develops.

[skidog40]

don't ever forget who's in charge
eye to the sky

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

Finally seeing some support for a weak, albeit somewhat sheared non vertically stacked surface low across the Western/Central Gulf via the 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean. The one limiting factor will just how deep the EC trough and back door front drops S and picks up any potential surface low and ejects it NE along the trough to our E next weekend. We will see.

[Katdaddy]

Model chatter continues to indicate possible tropical development in the GOM next weekend. Add a weak August front moving into the N Central GOM this week and my concern has been increased. Alicia 1983 developed from a weak front and disturbance that move offshore of Alabama. Lots potential energy in the GOM next weekend as we enter into the most active portion of the 2013 Hurricane Season. This is the time to be prepared.

[jeff]

There does appear to be some "spin" near Panama, but looks to be on the Pacific side along the ITCZ. Given the uptick in model agreement on something trying to spin up late this week...it does seem there is at least decent potential for a tropical system in the W Caribbean and/or Gulf. Most of the guidance really does not get things going until in the SC Gulf of Mexico.

[jeff]

Model chatter continues to indicate possible tropical development in the GOM next weekend. Add a weak August front moving into the N Central GOM this week and my concern has been increased. Alicia 1983 developed from a weak front and disturbance that move offshore of Alabama. Lots potential energy in the GOM next weekend as we enter into the most active portion of the 2013 Hurricane Season. This is the time to be prepared.

Not actually the same setup as this system looks to be purely tropical in origin, coming out of the Caribbean Sea. It is a little concerning seeing the models showing a gradual increase in the intensity and now development from nearly all except the EURO. CMC which has had nothing up until today now suggest a hurricane.

[Katdaddy]

Agreed. I should have clarified better. Yes not an Alicia setup. A tropical wave and weak front add complexity to the GOM in August which could lead to development.

[Katdaddy]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Paul Robison]

Look at this:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 PM CDT sun Aug 11 2013


Short term...
rich tropical moisture activating on typical Gulf Breeze today
with steady motions to the north around 10 knots or so. Much of
this activity will be dissipating shortly after sunset.
Persistence appears in play for Monday with little change in air
mass under the influence of Bermuda ridge flow at the surface.
Temperatures will be near normal levels through Tuesday.


Long term...
weather pattern becomes quite atypical middle of the week heading
into the weekend. Trough amplification over the eastern United
States carves a weakness down the lower Mississippi Valley that
ultimately brings a surface cool front to the Gulf Coast
Wednesday. Upper ridge pattern to the west over the plains states
and Desert Southwest will establish a channel of vorticity lobes
dropping into the base of the trough during the latter half of the
week for an unsettled weather regime. This out of season pattern
will be quite conducive for efficient rains and a flood potential
with a slow moving frontal zone in the presence of tropical
moisture. The GFS is the model of choice through at least
Thursday but gets interesting for the weekend. It is the only
conventional model currently indicating a tropical cyclone
potentially developing over the Yucatan the moves into the central
Gulf states next Saturday. While not totally buying off whole-
hog...teleconnections would suggest a weakness in the flow will
create a vulnerability for the area should a surface low develop
over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The TAFB unit...who prepares the
wind grids for the outer Gulf waters...is in consensus of at least
indicating a cyclonic circulation in the wind field to skirt the
outer coastal waters next Saturday. Will indicate likewise for now
but subsequent model runs will have to be monitored closely.
Incidently...that would be the anniversary of hurricane Camille of
1969...just saying.


Survey question:

Will we see a powerful TC roar ashore in the Houston area this weekend?

Please vote yes or no.

[Paul Robison]

Wow! Normally texas-happy CMC model shunts TC toward LA/MIS!






Still, let's not take it for granted, okay?

[Texas Pirate]

To Paul R: YOU ASKED:

Survey question:

Will we see a powerful TC roar ashore in the Houston area this weekend?

Please vote yes or no.


Paul I say NO...I think that trough will pull it more NORTH focusing its "eye" (if one does develop)
EAST OF NOLA...that's my vote.

NO Houston.

Wishcasters may now go crazy.

[Paul Robison]

To Paul R: YOU ASKED:

Survey question:

Will we see a powerful TC roar ashore in the Houston area this weekend?

Please vote yes or no.


Paul I say NO...I think that trough will pull it more NORTH focusing its "eye" (if one does develop)
EAST OF NOLA...that's my vote.

NO Houston.

Wishcasters may now go crazy.

Dear Texas pirate:

This is a SURVEY QUESTION not a PANIC QUESTION. I appreciate your vote and thank you. Now, based on the data and forecast discussions I've observed, I vote NO myself.

[cperk]

My vote is (I don't know).We have several days before we can possibly get any model consensus.

[jeff]

There are a lot of ensemble members from various global models in the BOC. Much of the Gulf is in play at the moment from a system that is still 4-5 days from forming. The "new" forecasting...or trying to decide where a system will landfall and how strong 120 hours before it even forms.

[Texas Pirate]

From the Houston NWS today August 12th morning disco

LASTLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NW CARIB ON THUR AND MOVES IT INTO INTO THE GULF FRI/SAT.
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE N GULF FOR THE
WEEKEND...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP TROPICALLY IT WILL BE IN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS FL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT OVERALL NOT
MUCH OF A CONCERN.

[Paul Robison]

Watching the storm system in the Caribbean

Author: Bill Read, KPRC Local 2 Hurricane Expert

Published On: Aug 12 2013 10:54:22 AM







.


HOUSTON -
I’m following a rather disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Monday morning for possible development later this week.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is moving west at about 15 mph. There is currently no low pressure center associated with this disturbance and wind shear Monday, and likely Tuesday, should keep the system disorganized.
However, by Wednesday, the wave will have reached the very warm waters of northwest Caribbean east of the Yucatan Peninsula and north of Honduras while models forecast the wind shear to lessen.

The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 20 percent chance of developing into a depression or tropical storm over the next five days. We’ll be watching for possible storm development in that area by Thursday.

Forecasting where a storm will track before it has even formed is fraught with error. However, all the models are forecasting a high pressure ridge building aloft over Texas and northern Mexico Monday then moving west toward the end of the week while a strong trough of low pressure extends southward through the Mississippi Valley to the northern Gulf.

This pattern would suggest that whatever moves out of the northwest Caribbean Thursday or Friday will either be steered north through the eastern Gulf by the trough or due west across the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche into Mexico by the ridge. Both cases are away from southeast Texas.

Stay tuned!

In other words, not all that great a concern for us, (Brownsville, though, now that's another story) but watch it all the same, right?

[Texas Pirate]

Hi Paul

I think Mr Read hit it on the head with this statement for us in SE TX:

Both cases are away from southeast Texas.

And yes, all year round we need to be prepared. Preparedness isn't just for cane season.

Got a couple of days to go and for us, a no-go. Would love to get some nice rain without a name, though