July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[PaulEInHouston]

Good to see rain coming back.

Thanks for your PDO/AMO analysis earlier...great reading.

[jasons2k]

Lookie:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1395.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141734Z - 141900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS /BY ABOUT 18-19Z/...AND THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO
MARGINAL FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN ADVANCE OF A SWWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NE OK/SE KS.
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/N TX WILL
TEND TO INTERFERE WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SE TX...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES WITH NWWD EXTENT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN BETWEEN ACROSS CENTRAL TX...THERE IS AN
AREA WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING PROBABLE
IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEEP-LAYER NLY FLOW WILL HELP STORMS MOVE SWD WITH THE
FRONT...INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGE
DCAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORM MATURE...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
THE SEVERE STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN RATHER MODEST
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND THE OBSERVED TENDENCY FOR THE MIDLEVEL LOW TO
MOVE A LITTLE MORE WWD /VERSUS SWWD/ IN THE SHORT TERM.

[PaulEInHouston]

Gulf.jpg (90.56 KiB) Viewed 4587 times

IMHO chances of rain for S/E Texas are understated personally. Heavy rainfall possible/likely C/Texas and N/NCentral Texas but considering the elongated trough/areas of low pressure out over the GOM, am thinking this to all lift/shift W/NW towards S/E Texas next few days as the S/E GOM fetch begins...while strong ULL approaches OK and moves W/SW towards W/Central Texas and Mexico.

[Ptarmigan]

The upper low is currently moving WSW from Missouri toward Oklahoma and will be located across W Texas tomorrow. Rain and storm chance should increase in aerial coverage later today into Wednesday as a cold pocket aloft allows for better buoyancy or convective development with day time heating. Tomorrow into Tuesday could be rather stormy across most of Texas and we’ll need to monitor for some potential of a core rain event across portions of N Central and Central Texas where this enhanced rainfall threat is sorely needed.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... oop-12.gif

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Lo ... s_loop.gif

Core rains usually occur within a county and can dump +10 inches and at night. Core rains usually occur from remnant lows of tropical systems, as they are warm cores. Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979 and Tropical Storm Allison 2001 are core rain events. Core rains can occur in non-tropical lows as well as long as they are warm core. Central Texas Flood of 1913, Central Texas Flood of 2002, and Marble Falls Flood of 2007 are core rain events from non-tropical lows, warm core upper level lows. The Memorial Day 2006 and June 19, 2006 floods were likely core rains as they occurred within a county and from small vortices that were likely warm core.

Core Rain Events List I Made
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=60

[Texas Pirate]

Well I love reading this rain discussion. Here by the bay, it's just passing us by.
I have to live vicariously through you all.
Leaving for Austin where I will speak at a disability conference this week.
I'll have to get my rain fix there I reckon.

[srainhoutx]

The attachment Gulf.jpg is no longer available

IMHO chances of rain for S/E Texas are understated personally. Heavy rainfall possible/likely C/Texas and N/NCentral Texas but considering the elongated trough/areas of low pressure out over the GOM, am thinking this to all lift/shift W/NW towards S/E Texas next few days as the S/E GOM fetch begins...while strong ULL approaches OK and moves W/SW towards W/Central Texas and Mexico.

Matches well with the 1620Z surface analysis, PaulEInHouston...

[srainhoutx]

The Updated QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the next 7 days is encouraging. Areas that need the rain in the current drought situation would certainly benefit if this verifies.

[Rip76]

Watch the radar.
The rain coming down from the north just peels back once it gets near northern Harris.

[tireman4]

Give it time. I am thinking eventually it will get here....slowly.....

[jasons2k]

Thundering here now, very dark clouds to my south and east. It looks like a curtain of rain is expanding

Edit - yep, radar shows it's pouring just south east of me in Bender's Landing & Spring Trails. If it could just nudge north and west a few miles...please....

[tireman4]

Thundering here too. Oh my. Will it come? Can it come? Hummm, these questions and more will be answered as the clock continues to advance forward on a Sunday evening.

[Rip76]

Full line of storms along I-10.
From San Antonio, then jumps Houston, and on to Beaumont.

[jasons2k]

Well so far, just some sprinkles for me. The storm split around me again! One part is headed WNW towards Hooks Airport, and the other piece just east of me is headed north towards the east side of Conroe. I'm stuck in-between for now - ugh!

[Rip76]

The resistance to push through is insane.
Although, some nice storms firing just above downtown.

[singlemom]

The storms went to the block behind me and split. Grrrrr.

So....are those storms moving West to East preventing that system from coming down from Dallas....to Bryan...? It looks like it's getting right about there and the system that keeps missing my house West to East is blocking it?

[unome]

afternoon rains like I remember from 20 yrs ago... happy, happy girl !

http://imapweather.com/

[biffb816]

Had a nice 20 minute monsoon just as the veggies needed to come off the grill. What do you think will happen if I put the steaks on?

[srainhoutx]

Nearing 2 inches in NW Harris County. I'm glad I completed those outdoor chores today. I've had a whopping 0.19 inches in the past 6-7 weeks before tonight's storms...

[ejburas]

Yeah, I'm just sitting a few miles down Hwy 6, waiting for this lightning and rain to die down so I can unload my car into my storage unit

[texoz]

The Updated QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the next 7 days is encouraging. Areas that need the rain in the current drought situation would certainly benefit if this verifies.

would be better if the heavy stuff was 100 miles south, closer to the Central Texas lakes. L Travis is about 10 ft short of record low.