July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Rip76]

Gets right to the coast and "poof."

[tireman4]

Slowly, ever so slowly coming up. Just give it a chance. It will work its way inland....

[Belmer]

Looks like it's shaping up to be a disappointing day for many. Hate to give out hope, but looks like it's sprinkler time for my yard.

[srainhoutx]

A stronger vortex max will move close by tomorrow. With the trough axis inland and increased PW's as far N as College Station, tonight into tomorrow may offer a bit more regarding areal coverage.

[kayci]

*sigh* here it is... 3:32 and not a DROP in Texas City.... total exhaustion from doing the rain dance. breaking out sprinkler now...

[djmike]

Dont feel bad. Us here in Beaumont had a sprinkle and thats it. It looks like its going all around us. 355pm and still nothing. Hope things pick up soon. If not, I will be VERY dissapointed. After 4 days of following this thing and a few of those days saying we were going to have massive amounts of rain, and this is what we get.

[txflagwaver]

Just put the sprinklers out...at least the sun is not cooking the poor plants

[SusieinLP]

It looks like it could rain here and is breezy but other than a couple of raindrops, nothing. On the bright side....it's not horribly hot

[jasons2k]

Dont feel bad. Us here in Beaumont had a sprinkle and thats it. It looks like its going all around us. 355pm and still nothing. Hope things pick up soon. If not, I will be VERY dissapointed. After 4 days of following this thing and a few of those days saying we were going to have massive amounts of rain, and this is what we get.

Sorry to hear about that! That's how it's been around my house for the longest time. I am still hopeful I will get a decent rain from this, but I have to admit, would have liked to see more coverage this afternoon by now.

[Texas Pirate]

I taunted the rain gods and washed my car.

Here is something interesting from the Houston NWS concerning 95L

THE REGION STILL REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY/INFLUENCE OF
A LARGE FOUR CORNERS-BASED 597 DAM UPPER RIDGE THROUGH A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. AT MID-WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELING
DEPICTS MORE MESOSCALE-DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE LOCAL BREEZES.
AN EASTERN EXPANSION OF THIS HUGE RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY INHIBIT
THE ENTRY OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTH-EAST. THUS...BY
WEEK`S CLOSE...THE HEAT WILL BE BACK WITH A VENGEANCE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT (AFTERNOON) ISOLATED POPS. THIS RECENT DRY PERIOD HAS
BAKED THE GROUND AND...WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTING
INTO THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE EAST...INTERIOR THERMOMETERS WILL
QUICKLY WARM FROM THE MEAN UPPER 70S AT SUNRISE TO AROUND (OR SLIGHT
OVER) 100F BY 5 PM. EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS
THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS A BIT UNBELIEVABLE
CONSIDERING THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF CENTRAL U.S RIDGING BUT...DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS AN AGREEABLE ENSEMBLE SUITE...IT HAS TO
BE CONSIDERED AS A PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME. A WEAKENING EASTERN EDGE TO
THE RIDGE...AND HOW THIS IMPACTS A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW (TROPICAL
CYCLONE?) OVER FLORIDA...WILL AGAIN DETERMINE IF WE AGAIN FALL
INTO A SIMILAR (MORE WET THAN DRY) SITUATION A WEEK FROM NOW. 31

[djmike]

That's it. I give up. Mets in my area (Beaumont) posted on FB that the scattered storms (if that's what you want to call them) are winding down and weakening. I did see a drop from this whole thing! When is the most coverage suppose to take place? It sure wasn't today, but tonight? Monday? If I go this whole period without a drop, I will be very depressed. Such a high happy mood yesterday to such a LOW depressing one today within 24 hours. All this rain expected (4"-5" possible) to very little to none at all (0.50" maybe).

[Canebo]

If this is a wet pattern, we better really fear the dry pattern when it returns

[srainhoutx]

there remains a lot of low and mid level moisture strung out from former Hurricane Erick in the EPAC (now a TS) as well as the Western Gulf wave/trough stretching ENE. Daily tropical showers/storms may continue until mid week before all eyes will once again turn to the tropics and a very unusual 5H upper low dropping SW from the Ohio Valley into Texas as well as 95L approaching the Lesser Antilles. I suspect our rain chances will continue into the mid July time frame.

[Cromagnum]

3-4 inches of rain turned out to be closer to 3-4 micrometers of rain at my house. Hopefully the tropics ramp up enough to give us a TD or TS that will sit and give us a good soaking for 3-4 days. I have cracks in my back yard that are 5" across and deeper than I can see the bottom of.

[jasons2k]

Wow - the water vapor shows all the moisture in place and out into the gulf, but it's the quietest I've seen it since we've been watching this system. Let's hope for some redevelopment overnight...

[robertscottlazar]

the forecast today was pretty damn pathetic and way off and bad. not one drop.nothing. i think everyone over hyped this. what a joke of an event

[Ptarmigan]

there remains a lot of low and mid level moisture strung out from former Hurricane Erick in the EPAC (now a TS) as well as the Western Gulf wave/trough stretching ENE. Daily tropical showers/storms may continue until mid week before all eyes will once again turn to the tropics and a very unusual 5H upper low dropping SW from the Ohio Valley into Texas as well as 95L approaching the Lesser Antilles. I suspect our rain chances will continue into the mid July time frame.

I saw GFS and shows a upper level low retrograding from northeast to southwest. The EURO shows the same upper level low over South Texas in the same time frame of 8 days.

[djmike]

Yup! Now its early morning when convection was to be heavy. Just looked at radar and its a joke. I sure hope this is our one and only let down! Im in Beaumont where the most was suppose to fall and not a drop! Local met just said 50% for today, lol...im not holding my breath!!!!

[PaulEInHouston]

Yup! Now its early morning when convection was to be heavy. Just looked at radar and its a joke. I sure hope this is our one and only let down! Im in Beaumont where the most was suppose to fall and not a drop! Local met just said 50% for today, lol...im not holding my breath!!!!

Mike...am with ya. This has been a great "lack of precip" event. My brother and I watched this for days (like lots of us here, crossing fingers, etc) and we both think that while convective temps were there or around, there was a dry "slot" bringing mid level dry air from the S/West (more or less paralleling the coast) for the last few days. Think was associated with a weak upper level low which moved on shore Sat night into Sun morning as it stretched out and elongated. Water vapor imagery showed that feature clearly and that's, well, our guess. Today, I think much the same or maybe less in way of any rainfall. My "rainfall" is sprinklers running yesterday and again this morning.

The overall "pattern" though is interesting and different than last year. Interesting to see how that Bermuda high builds/elongates, maybe driving more significant tropical moisture (and systems, if they are strong enough and high elongates) into our area (Gulf coast) as the season continues.

[srainhoutx]

Areas across our Western zones are doing fairly well with the speed max moving inland causing enhanced showers and storms. This rainfall is happening in areas that have not seen much if any rainfall to speak of and where drought conditions are far worse than the Beaumont/Port Arthur area.