July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[djmike]

don't fall asleep. things can change

Trying not to, but it's awfully quiet in here. Even with an invest in the gulf.

[Rip76]

Sprinkler time...

[djmike]

Sprinkler time...

Im afraid to ask, but what makes you say that Rip?

[Rip76]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

Sprinkler time...

Im afraid to ask, but what makes you say that Rip?

[djmike]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

Sprinkler time...

Im afraid to ask, but what makes you say that Rip?

Ewwe...I see.

[djmike]

Looks like if anyone is going to get ANY moisture from this, it would be the Beaumont, Golden Triangle area (Me). Right now, showing 3" possible for this area while only giving Houston a whopping .75"! Attached is the 7 day QPF.

7day.PNG (14.2 KiB) Viewed 4335 times

nws7.PNG (218.44 KiB) Viewed 4332 times

[srainhoutx]

No update since the initial 18Z tracks and intensity guidance. At 08Z IR satellite imagery suggests slow drift N of broad area of 'low pressure' NE of Tampico. Enhanced showers and storms streaming N from the State of Veracruz and strong convection moving N from the State of Tabasco into the open SW Gulf waters with a wave/trough axis extending NE toward Vermilion Bay, LA heading generally NW. The 00Z Euro was indeed 'wetter' across Coastal Texas on E into Louisiana. The other issue is that the higher resolution short range meso models develop a shear axis as the upper trough that brought our cooler weather earlier in the week moves NE and closed upper 5H low develops near Corpus bringing higher rain totals further inland before moving W into Mexico on Tuesday. The subsidant northerly flow aloft will gradually be replaced by a more easterly fetch as the trough translates W. Remember this was never expected to be much more than enhanced rain chances for Texas and Louisiana along and S of the I-10 Corridor as the trough moved inland. This was never expected to be a Hermine/Humberto redeux. We'll see if that trend continues today and actually develops on Sunday/Monday as was expected. Enjoy the long Holiday weekend.

[jasons2k]

I was reading the overnight NWS discussion and it's been a long time since I recall that much debate over whether of not the moisture axis would arrive over SE Texas or not. It seems like feast or famine with this. I kept reading (it's rather long) and about 3/4" down I just stopped, paused, and thought "why does it have to be this hard just to get some rain?" I didn't even bother to read the rest, I figured what's the point, it just all boils down to they still don't have a clue if it's gonna dump on us or not. Yesterday, they thought the models were tending that way and were pretty sure they finally got it. Then today they flipped dry again. In the end probably 8" in Beumont and .50" at IAH. Just see....

[Scott747]

It's actually a good read and for the most part everyone should be able to get a good feel of what are the chances of rain in their area. While it doesn't look good right now with the modeling maybe we can get a break for those further inland. At least its a popping down that way even though showing little signs of organization. I thought they dropped the invest last night but it's still there. Heck it even dropped a mb to 1009 on best track, lol.

HGX disco. Lengthy so here's the link -

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[PaulEInHouston]

Gulf.jpg (135.83 KiB) Viewed 4381 times

Gulf really popping this morning...all I can say is "hmmmmm".

[Rip76]

That's a lot of action out there this morning.

[srainhoutx]

A weak surface low is SSE of Brownsville slowly drifting N to NNW.

[Rip76]

A little off topic but, does anyone know if the HGX NOAA radio frequency is down?

[skidog40]

uh oh

[srainhoutx]

Updated track and intensity charts for 12Z have been issued. Hopefully there will be additional data from the actual models later in the day.

[Rip76]

I'm thinking Jeff is busy, or bored.

Looking at radar, it appears that some of those storms below Beaumont (in the gulf), could move into the H/G area.

[Stormrider]

NOAA Weather radio KHB-40 (162.55mhz) is up, Rip.

[Rip76]

Thanks,
Link for iPhones?

[Portastorm]

Well, here's hoping that 94L provides us in south central Texas with buckets of rain. Lake Travis is now down to its third lowest level of all time. Less than 38% capacity now. The drought is killing us.

[Stormrider]

Didn't know there was such a thing. Somebody out there probably knows.