July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Rip76]

Oh... Sorry for leaving out the quote.
Srain's comment from the previous page.

[djmike]

I know it's probably nothing, but got excited when I saw NWS LCH include "Gusts" in our Beaumont forecast for Sunday. Although the gusts are a terrifying 25mph, they still felt the need to include it. LOLOLOL

Beaumont
"Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%"

[djmike]

Up to 20%.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY
SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ticka1]

Up to 20%.

wow

[Texas Pirate]

Bring it.
Thank you.

[PaulEInHouston]

Shear.jpg (145.27 KiB) Viewed 4105 times

AreaInterest.jpg (98.67 KiB) Viewed 4105 times

Interesting to note that the shear tendency is decreasing. Strong W and W/SW winds of 20-30 are still around, but hinting at relaxing as potential system continues in a generally N/NW direction.

RBG and hi-res GOES satellite shows the low nicely.

EDIT...the dashed lines indicate decreasing shear "tendency" and solid one increasing.

[srainhoutx]

Convection is developing around the weak surface low at this time as it moves generally N.

[djmike]

Invevst 94L!

[Rip76]

Looks like we have invest 94L.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like we have invest 94L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307051906
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013070518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942013
AL, 94, 2013070418, , BEST, 0, 214N, 957W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 959W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070506, , BEST, 0, 221N, 960W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070512, , BEST, 0, 225N, 960W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070518, , BEST, 0, 229N, 960W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[ticka1]

wow that was fast.....now to wait for the spaghetti models to appear

[Katdaddy]

Invest 94L is here. Some interesting days ahead.

[Scott747]

Likely won't be getting any reasonable guidance until 0z which will be around 9ish.

First small set of intensity guidance -

[PaulEInHouston]

Invest 94L.jpg (72.8 KiB) Viewed 4264 times

Katdaddy...

Fellow neighbor here in League City. Thought I'd share this graphic showing a few interesting items. Red line is the track the low has taken since emerging off the Yucatan coast...been following for a few days now. Interesting feature/outflow to the N/NE with obvious W/SW shear and influence from the new system in Pacific. Hard to say what this feature will do/bring, but I am thinking fair heavy (much needed) rain chances for SE and S/Central Texas. Hoping it might follow a few of the ensemble models and lift NW up toward Central Texas and give that area some MUCH needed relief as well.

[ticka1]

Invest 94L.jpg

Katdaddy...

Fellow neighbor here in League City. Thought I'd share this graphic showing a few interesting items. Red line is the track the low has taken since emerging off the Yucatan coast...been following for a few days now. Interesting feature/outflow to the N/NE with obvious W/SW shear and influence from the new system in Pacific. Hard to say what this feature will do/bring, but I am thinking fair heavy (much needed) rain chances for SE and S/Central Texas. Hoping it might follow a few of the ensemble models and lift NW up toward Central Texas and give that area some MUCH needed relief as well.

hi paul waveing!! welcome back

[PaulEInHouston]

Howdy howdy...rain dancing for SC, SE and Central Texas here! If no drenching rains soon, mandatory water restrictions will be issued soon my guess.

[srainhoutx]

Snip from the afternoon discussion via NWS Houston/Galveston:

THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGE...JUST HOW
MUCH CHANGE IS STILL IN DISCUSSION. EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WEAK WESTERN GULF INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DRAGGING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION OF NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS (GREATER THAN 2 INCH
PWATS). WHETHER THIS FEATURE REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OR
BECOMES A DEPRESSION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE ENVIRONMENT IT
ENTERS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO AT A
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS-SHEARED WESTERN GULF SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF WEST/NORTHERN TEXAS UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR OF THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG OUR COASTLINE BY SUNDAY. AS OF
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND OF BITING ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE...OR POINTS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10 (HIGHWAY 59) CORRIDOR(S). A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE TO THE COAST...WITH ITS AXIS WEST OF US BY EARLY
TUESDAY...PLACES 72 HOUR QPF TOTALS IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR/SOUTHERN HOUSTON METRO. THE
BULK OF THIS RAIN IS TIMED TO FALL DURING SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH (NEAR) COASTAL RAINFALL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING.

[Ptarmigan]

If Invest 94L was named, it would be Chantal. A Chantal did pay a visit in August 1989. It was a Category 1 hurricane with the dirty side on the southwest side of the storm. Many areas saw 6 to 12 inches of rain. Up to 20 inches of rain was reported south of Houston around Friendswood. Chantal was a small storm like Jerry or Humberto.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... l1989.html

[PaulEInHouston]

Remember Chantal well...brother and I were one of the few cars driving to Galveston to see it arrive. This system, if it develops, looks to be a rather tightly wound system as well.