July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[djjordan]

My lawn thanks the unexpected heavy Thundershower that is in progress. Didn't really want to wait until the weekend LOL.

[srainhoutx]

Heh...the 00Z operational GFS brings a tropical storm inland between Lake Charles and Vermillion Bay.

[Rip76]

Heh...the 00Z operational GFS brings a tropical storm inland between Lake Charles and Vermillion Bay.

So still dry for us.

[Paul Robison]

The 18Z NCEP Ensemble cyclogenesis probabilities have increased in the Bay of Campeche.

I don't want to jump the gun, but I'm shifting my thoughts from "nah, doesn't have a chance" to "on 2nd thought, what's holding it back?" the pattern would lend a nice pathway up this way if it did develop. All depends on the movement of the ull/trough axis to the W/SW and how much the bermuda high can build west. The ULL, if located to the NW of it, could help ventilate a tropical cyclone on the GOM. Food for thought...

Well that, all depends on what happens to it in the next 12 hours. Honestly, it doesn't look any different from the usual tropical waves thrown off from the Yucatan this time of year. What's more, the water vapor loop looks particulary unimpressive for the storms over land to get out into the Gulf from the BOC. More probably, it'll keep feeding the moisture fetch that's been plaguing the SE and east coast for the past week, but I personally can't see it becoming anything more than a depression----if that!

[jasons2k]

I woke-up to loud thunder and this wet stuff falling in the sky. Yeah!!!

As for the system near the Yucatan, development would take a few days to evolve - we'll be watching this a lot longer than the next12 hours

[srainhoutx]

I woke-up to loud thunder and this wet stuff falling in the sky. Yeah!!!

As for the system near the Yucatan, development would take a few days to evolve - we'll be watching this a lot longer than the next12 hours

It appears the shear axis is right overhead of SE Texas and some further shifting W or retrograting of the upper trough.is looking a bit more likely. Meso driven convection has aided the Montgomery County storms to fire and drop isolated 1 inch amounts overnight. All eyes turn to the Bay of Campeche disturbance as the NCEP ensemble cyclogenesis probs are rather insistent that a weak surface low, possibly of tropical origin may spin up along the Upper Texas/SW Louisiana Coast late this weekend into early next week.

[Katdaddy]

Very isolated slowing moving thunderstorms possible the next several days due to a large upper level low across the lower Missouri Valley. You are lucky if you experience one. and my yard could use one.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upcoming pattern change will slowly transpire over the next 3-4 days with the parched area hopefully getting some much needed rainfall.

Highly unusual upper air pattern in place across the US with blocking ridges on both coasts and a full latitude trough in the center of the nation. This pattern will slowly retro-grade (move westward) over the next 3-4 days with the trough axis pushing deeper into TX allowing increasing instability and eventually and significant surge of tropical moisture. In addition, a tropical wave currently over the Yucatan will move generally WNW to NW over the next 3-4 days along the eastern side of the eastern side of the trough axis. Latest global forecast models attempt to spin up a surface low pressure from this tropical wave over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and they have been suggesting this off and on for several days now. Eastern sides of upper trough tend to be fairly active areas for thunderstorms to blossom and if upper level wind shear is favorable it is very possible that a surface circulation could close off over the NW Gulf. Any tropical cyclone formation would be on the weak side and likely move inland fairly quickly along the LA or TX coasts.

Should see a few isolated storms again this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday. Surge of tropical moisture nears the area on Friday and expect a little better coverage of storms along the seabreeze. Moisture moves inland over the weekend with good rain chances likely starting Saturday. Still a little uncertain as to how much coverage, but think the eastern areas (E of I-45) will see decent coverage on Saturday and likely the entire area on Sunday. Uncertainty is greater on Sunday as any surface low will tend to help concentrate rainfall near and east of the center. With tropical moisture increasing, rainfall rates will be on the rise also and while the ground is very dry, the prolonged nature of this potential event does warrant some concern.

Could be some significant changes to wind and seas forecast by late in the weekend if a weak tropical system does attempt to form over the NW Gulf. Should see gradually increasing winds out of the ESE and SE and building seas out of the near flat calm now as the SE wind fetch increases with the tropical wave axis.

Would advise residents to pay close attention to the weather over the holiday weekend and remain update to date on potential for rainfall and amounts.

[srainhoutx]

06Z NCEP TC Genesis Probs:

[srainhoutx]

Satellite and radar imagery as well as surface observations across the State of Campeche suggest a weak surface low may be developing.

[djmike]

BOC Storm.PNG

[tireman4]

This will be an interesting upcoming weekend and next week. Keep it tuned here and your NWS affliates.

[Rip76]

The online users legend at the bottom is going to be lit up like a Christmas tree during the next few days.

[Ptarmigan]

This could be interesting week and next week.

[djmike]

Also, the NAVGEM (formally NOGAPS) is showing the system coming onshore Galveston/Houston area. Everyone will need to keep an eye on weather news this weekend!

ensembles.PNG

[tireman4]

Now that above photo is interesting. Still a long way out...so anything can happen.

[Rip76]

Probably not the most reliable model in the fleet.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NCEP Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities remain rather elevated and is suggesting the potential tracks are a bit more favorable for some sorely needed rainfall across SE Texas and Louisiana. This will not be much of a wind threat, but the rainfall will help our drought situation. We will see.

[ticka1]

Not much discussion happening about this - guess once it real event starts happening more chatter perhaps.

As Srainhoutx says - the rain will help our drought situation if this scenario happens.

[srainhoutx]

The model disagreement remains rather high with the GFS keeping the highest chances of rain across Louisiana and the Central Gulf Coast. On the other hand, the Euro/CMC and UKMet are much more aggressive with heavy rain chances further W even into S Central Texas. Satellite imagery does suggest that the upper level wind shear is relaxing across the Bay of Campeche and the current surface analysis suggests the tropical wave axis is offshore of the State of Campeche. Also of note is the boundary is retreat back N across the offshore waters of Louisiana and a cyclonic ridge is developing near Monterrey, MX extending into the Western Gulf Waters. We'll need to monitor the progression of the deep surge of tropical moisture moving slowly W to NW from the NW Caribbean. If the upper level winds relax enough, there is some potential for development as the area of disturbed weather shifts generally W toward our part of the Gulf. In the mean time, everyone have a safe and Happy 4th of July and we'll continue to monitor and update as conditions become a bit more clear.