July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Texas Pirate]

Tropical Storm Claudette in July of 1979. Although not a hurricane, dumped a whole lotta water near the coast.

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, I read that too. Why do you mention it? What does it have to do with this coming weekend's weather?

We are in hurricane season and a major hurricane can make landfall in July.

[Ptarmigan]

Tropical Storm Claudette in July of 1979. Although not a hurricane, dumped a whole lotta water near the coast.

43 inches of rain in 24 hours near Alvin.

[biffb816]

I get the feeling that our seasons are shifting to the "left" a bit. Whereas, the old weather of February and March is now April and May.

FWIW I have noticed, and commented to friends quite frequently this spring that the season was a month behind. Everything was like clockwork, just a month behind schedule.

The big oak tree in my front yard agrees. All the other trees and smaller oaks sprouted leaves and greened up about a month before the big oak. It seemed as though that tree just had the wisdom of years because it greened right up about 2 days after the last cold spell at the beginning of May.

[Texas Pirate]

This mornings disco from Hou/Glx NWS concerning up coming rain:


DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICS. ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE DRIER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SHEARING OUT LOW AND RESULTING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WEST. THERE MAY ALSO BE
A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF APPROACHING THE TEXAS
GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[jasons2k]

I have a feeling when it finally rains, it's gonna really dump on us, but we're gonna have to wait forever for it.

[Texas Pirate]

I have a feeling when it finally rains, it's gonna really dump on us, but we're gonna have to wait forever for it.

My friends in Florida are so tired of the rain....and all I can do is sit from this side of the GOM and wish for some of it.

[srainhoutx]

Awesome July weather with cool comfortable mornings and no humidity. Are we in Texas...in summer? The good news is those 4th of July festivities look safe from any weather threats. And my A/C is not running overtime. Let that rain and humidity hold off until after the long Holiday weekend!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
0727 AM CDT TUE JUL 02 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 2008.

[srainhoutx]

The much talked about tropical wave axis is now entering the Bay of Campeche from the NW Caribbean. While the models have flip flopped on our increasing rain chances, it does appear increased deep tropical moisture will begin to head NW and increased showers and storms may begin to tick up along the Upper Texas Coast as well as Louisiana. The fly in the ointment is just where a upper trough axis will set up as the 500 mb upper low currently over the Mississippi River Valley retrogrades SW and drops a couple of short waves S. Locations E of that axis will see increasing shower and storm chances late this weekend into early next week as the Bermuda Ridge gains strength and moves W into the Eastern Gulf. Fingers crossed that eastern areas of Texas and Louisiana benefit from the rather complex and complicated setup.

[jasons2k]

I hope it turns out better than that, even if it means rain this weekend. I'm still holding-out some hope with the showers popping this evening - maybe, just maybe it is a sign of things to come.

I'm considering changing my signature to this:

2013 rain: 13.06"
Monthly rain: 0.00"
Days without rain: 21
Last measurable rain: .01" on June 12th
Last rain > 1": 1.24" on June 2nd

[srainhoutx]

Well look at this...

07022013 7 PM CDT atl1.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Paul Robison]

Well look at this...

07022013 7 PM CDT atl1.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

West-northwestward to Northwestward? That means it's coming OUR direction, doesn't it?

[cperk]

Could this be the rainmaker we so desperately need.

[Ptarmigan]

Well look at this...

07022013 7 PM CDT atl1.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

I can see this tagged as an Invest this week. If named, it would be Chantal. We could use the rain from it.

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z NCEP Ensemble cyclogenesis probabilities have increased in the Bay of Campeche.

[Paul Robison]

The first thing to note is the surface trough/broad area of monsoonal vorticity over the Yucatan peninsula. Second, there is a tropical wave south of Cuba. Both of these features will head north into the Gulf coast states. The tropical wave will head north first and should be inland by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, the surface trough over the Yucatan will hang over the BoC in the coming days before heading it heads north into the Gulf states sometime this weekend. Frankly, I don't understand why the NHC circled the feature over the Yucatan peninsula when, in fact, it is the tropical wave south of Cuba that's got the greater model support ATT.

The chances of development aren't all that great with either of these systems but IMHO we could (probably will) see a sneaky TD or weak TS come out of it. I think that If anything does form it will be weak, elongated and weighted to the eastern side (lopsided appearance). That is because a trough to the north will limit focused convergence and shear off whatever tries to form. I worry about both of these disturbances, though, because the main issue will be not so much wind as the large amount of moisture they will draw out of the deep tropics. This moisture combined with divergence aloft will bring large amounts of rainfall into the southern Gulf States.

[skidog40]

o% chance of rain today. Its raining by beltway and I10

[oleander]

Yeah, I'm at 290 & Antoine. Nice unexpected shower.

[jasons2k]

The 18Z NCEP Ensemble cyclogenesis probabilities have increased in the Bay of Campeche.

I don't want to jump the gun, but I'm shifting my thoughts from "nah, doesn't have a chance" to "on 2nd thought, what's holding it back?" the pattern would lend a nice pathway up this way if it did develop. All depends on the movement of the ull/trough axis to the W/SW and how much the bermuda high can build west. The ULL, if located to the NW of it, could help ventilate a tropical cyclone on the GOM. Food for thought...

[Rip76]

What a difference a day makes.