June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!

[jasons2k]

As expected, not a drop here. I feel your pain, Ed. Seems like an endless cycle...and going-on for years now. It has not been "normal" in my neighborhood since hurricane Rita.

I think I may need a new hobby. This one is just causing stress.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I don't get it. I can see how it can miss for a good stretch, even for an extended period in some funky pattern. Or, if I lived somewhere next to a mountain range that threw things off. What I don't get is how this little area of Houston keeps getting missed time after time, month after month, year after year, even when patterns change. They say everything evens out over time, but I'm having my doubts.

This drought is like sitting at a craps table and rolling snake eyes all day long. Statistically, it just isn't supposed to be possible. Yet for some unexplained reason, like magic, it just does.

[mckinne63]

Nice rain in Stafford right now. Didn't see it coming but coming down pretty good.

[srainhoutx]

Storms appear to be slow movers developing in Ft Bend and Southern Harris Counties. Rainfall rates approaching 2 inches per hour with those storms. Like Jason and Ed, not a drop up here in NW Harris County. Tomorrow may offer a bit more, but Sunday into next week is looking like a pattern change as the Caribbean and Western Gulf open up and the upper ridge weakens and shifts W and N. My hunch is this mini dry/hot spell is going to end as we head toward the last week of June/early July. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

Storms appear to be slow movers developing in Ft Bend and Southern Harris Counties. Rainfall rates approaching 2 inches per hour with those storms. Like Jason and Ed, not a drop up here in NW Harris County. Tomorrow may offer a bit more, but Sunday into next week is looking like a pattern change as the Caribbean and Western Gulf open up and the upper ridge weakens and shifts W and N. My hunch is this mini dry/hot spell is going to end as we head toward the last week of June/early July. We will see.

Let's hope for that.

[Belmer]

Man did it flood in Pasadena tonight or what? Haven't checked any rain totals yet... but I'm guessing Pasadena saw about 3 inches of rain or more within two hours. Was in League City at a baseball game and was on my way home and went through some of the heaviest rain I can remember. Can't even remember when I saw flood waters the way I did tonight. It's been years.
Drove down to Deer Park and La Porte and it wasn't even flooded there. That storm just sat over Pasadena and didn't budge.
Anyone else around the Pasadena area who experienced the same?

[Ptarmigan]

Man did it flood in Pasadena tonight or what? Haven't checked any rain totals yet... but I'm guessing Pasadena saw about 3 inches of rain or more within two hours. Was in League City at a baseball game and was on my way home and went through some of the heaviest rain I can remember. Can't even remember when I saw flood waters the way I did tonight. It's been years.
Drove down to Deer Park and La Porte and it wasn't even flooded there. That storm just sat over Pasadena and didn't budge.
Anyone else around the Pasadena area who experienced the same?

Many areas saw 2 to 3 inches, especially around Pasadena.
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Rain chances continue today with numerous boundaries in place across the region after a fairly active late afternoon and early evening yesterday east of I-45.

Weakness in the upper level ridge continues over SE TX this morning, but the ridge axis is starting to build eastward from W TX and MX. Locally numerous boundaries from late evening storms yesterday are laying across the region and with a moist and unstable air mass still in place expect additional thunderstorms to develop by late morning into early afternoon. A few storms are already going from the Lake Livingston area SE into the Lake Charles area this morning. Think the best rain chances will again be along and east of a line from Huntsville to Sugar Land to Freeport where less influence of the building upper ridge is found and this region is closer to the lift from upper level energy passing NE of the area.

As noted yesterday evening over SE Harris County slow storm motions in this very tropical air mass (PWS 1.8-1.9 inches) will support some very heavy to excessive rainfall in a short period of time. Storm motions today look to be on the slow side again with weak steering aloft and mainly driven by outflow boundaries. Locations that fall under the heavy rainfall cores could easily see 2-3 inches of rainfall in an hour or less.

Upper ridge gains ground on Thursday and this should at least reduce rain chances. Thus far this summer the ridge has not been able to fully assert its full potential as suggested by the model guidance….likely to guidance trending toward a drier ground helping to pump the ridge some. Vegetation and ground moisture is doing fairly well with the recent rains which is helping to negate some of the warming of the upper ridge. With this in mind…think the seabreeze may be able to generate a few isolated storms each afternoon through Saturday. By Sunday a surge of deep tropical moisture looks to arrive on the TX coast and will likely result in a more active seabreeze front with scattered to possibly even numerous showers and thunderstorms.

TD#2:
Poorly organized tropical depression # 2 has emerged over the Bay of Campeche. The system is currently undergoing fairly strong SW wind shear with nearly all of the deep convection displaced to the northern side of the circulation. Forecast models show the wind shear greatly lessening in the next 24 hours as the depression slowly moves westward. Given the increasingly favorable conditions in the Bay of Campeche, the depression should intensify into a tropical storm prior to landfall late Thursday on the eastern coast of Mexico. With the system deep in the southern Gulf and its limited time over the open waters to generate swells, do not see much if any impact toward the TX coast from either moisture or wave action. Upper ridging building into TX over the next few days will help shunt all of the moisture west into MX well south of the TX coast.

[SusieinLP]

Belmer...we got over 3 inches in La Porte as well. It was a crazy heavy rain that did not let up for at least an hour. I guess we are blessed with streets that drain well

[wxman57]

Only 0.35" at my home in Westbury yesterday. Heavier rain missed us.

[jasons2k]

There is some sort of boundary from Conroe to Liberty with some cells trying to fire. It looks like the sw ll winds are slowly pushing the boundary northeast. Will be interesting to see it evolve - if line can form, maybe it will push out an outflow to the south/sw and initiate new storms later on.

[kayci]

Is that rain on the radar near Texas City or just one of those "false echos"?
I'm hoping it's the wet stuff, we didnt' get a drop yesterday and once again had to water my lawn.
Please tell me it's rain....

[jasons2k]

Will be interesting to see it evolve - if line can form, maybe it will push out an outflow to the south/sw and initiate new storms later on.

Said outflow is now forming in eastern Montgomery pushing W/SW. Sea Breeze is coming-on from the SE. I sure hope it doesn't skip over me today *fingers crossed*.

[srainhoutx]

Storm complex that originated near the Panhandle is dropping SSE to near Abilene and Ft Worth. If that complex can hold together, we may see some rain/storms during the late night hours. I saw the HRRR earlier this morning and that short range meso model was somewhat suggestive that the storms may hold together. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192201Z - 192330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SOUTHWEST OF FORTH WORTH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY ACROSS NCNTRL TX EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED ELY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF NCNTRL TX TO THE EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH RUNNELS...COLEMAN...BROWN AND COMANCHE
COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000
TO 2500 J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD ENABLE THE LINE OF
STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE WSR-88D VWPS FROM FORTH
WORTH SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING FLOW IS MARGINAL
FOR A SEVERE THREAT. IN SPITE OF THE WEAKNESS IN SHEAR...SFC-TEMP
DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 25 DEGREES F AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE THREAT SHOULD
BECOME MORE ISOLATED.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

[jasons2k]

Wow a few drops and a little cell almost right over me. The question is will it grow into a bigger storm or just fall apart?

Edit: And a frame refresh loses any yellow it had. Poof. Sprinkler time. *#%$&*$^@!#@&!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edit#2: And another cell did pop just to my W/NW over Oak Ridge and along I-45. If it had behaved like all the other storms around, it would have drifted right over me, but nope, it had to fall apart too after about 10 minutes.

[unome]

our forecast for Cypress does at least have a chance of rain now every day, but I'm wondering if this is an automated forecast or what - I mean it doesn't change one iota all week long... just copy & paste day to day

high 95
low 74
20% chance of showers

all the way through next Wednesday

I don't believe I have ever seen this before ?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... X%2C%20USA

edit to say the rain gods have smiled upon us & parked a beautiful storm cloud over us - we'll take it !

[unome]

look at that, nice

http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... atest.jpeg

[Ptarmigan]

I think the energy from those storms could be a setup for storms tomorrow morning.

[jasons2k]

Love how the NWS keeps moving the goal posts. They had been saying the ridge would build late this week into the weekend, then break down Monday with rain chances starting-up again with increased tropical moisture. Now they are saying the ridge will finally build this weekend and it won't be until later next week before it breaks down. I guessing doesn't matter too much for me. Ridge or no ridge, I still keep getting missed.