N. ATL Hurricane Season 2013 Discussions

[srainhoutx]

While it is still a long way out in model world, the 12Z Euro does eventually spin up a left over disturbance in the Bay of Campeche and brings it NE toward the SE Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast. We will see…

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDREA         AN- DREE UH      LORENZO         LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY          BAIR- REE        MELISSA         MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL        SHAHN TAHL-      NESTOR          NES- TOR
DORIAN         DOR- EE AN       OLGA            OAL- GUH
ERIN           AIR- RIN         PABLO           PAHB- LO
FERNAND        FAIR NAHN-       REBEKAH         REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE      GA BREE ELL-     SEBASTIEN       SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO       OOM BAIR- TOH    TANYA           TAHN- YUH
INGRID         ING- GRID        VAN             VAN
JERRY          JEHR- EE         WENDY           WEN- DEE
KAREN          KAIR- REN

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 
1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE CAN ALSO BE USED
IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ALSO ISSUED TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND THE
CENTER CAN BE EASILY TRACKED WITH LAND-BASED RADAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT
WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS
AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

While we typically see many tropical waves cross the Atlantic and never amount to much, there is a rather strong wave about mid way between the W Coast of Africa and the Caribbean Islands. Right now there is no real model support for development other than increased deep tropical moisture entering the Caribbean in about 5-7 day. The very long range GFS does suggest some enhanced tropical moisture heading into the Western Caribbean in about 10 day. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

While we typically see many tropical waves cross the Atlantic and never amount to much, there is a rather strong wave about mid way between the W Coast of Africa and the Caribbean Islands. Right now there is no real model support for development other than increased deep tropical moisture entering the Caribbean in about 5-7 day. The very long range GFS does suggest some enhanced tropical moisture heading into the Western Caribbean in about 10 day. We will see.

Forecaster Beven puts a Lemon on this tropical wave in the Central Atlantic:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Now Invest 92L if someone cares to start a discussion...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306061923
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013060618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922013
AL, 92, 2013060618, , BEST, 0, 136N, 467W,

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and Euro increase the tropical moisture across the Western Caribbean in about 8-10 days from this wave. While shear will not be conducive to development as it crosses the Caribbean Sea, some potential may develop in the longer range once the disturbance enters the Southern and Western Gulf. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

We are beginning to see some hints in the longer range reliable Global and Ensemble guidance suggesting the monsoonal trough will begin to lift N from the Western Caribbean during the later half of the medium range (6-7 days). As the monsoonal trough lift N and W some vorticity or cyclonic spin at the surface is noted to develop and head generally WNW into the Western Gulf beyond the June 17th to 19th timeframe. While this is rather far out in model world, the longer range guidance did do rather well in suggesting Andrea would develop beyond the 192 hour timeframe so it may be worth watching over the next week or so.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA.

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[unome]

as I recall the TWO % is listed as the nearest 10%, so I guess there could be a 5% chance of developement. if there was truly zero, I doubt they would give it a circle - can't find their "manual" right now though...

if there was a 5% chance that your firm could have an external audit within the next 48 hrs, would you like to know about it in advance

[srainhoutx]

The GFS is now inside the 192 hour mark and continues to advertise a deep surge of tropical moisture and perhaps some low level spin developing late next week in the NW Caribbean. The Euro is also suggesting lower pressures during this time frame across the Western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. The heat ridge will likely still be in place but building further E into the SE US during that time frame. There are some indications that a tropical disturbance will develop and head generally W to WNW into Mexico and maybe as far N as the Deep S Texas area. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles continue to advertise an area of disturbed weather festering in the Western Gulf in the 8-10 day time frame. Something to watch in the week ahead.

[Katdaddy]

Long range Global models continue to show lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean and SW GOM 8-10 days out along with the pooling of tropical moisture. This is many days out but we could see more tropical development in the days ahead. Take this as a reminder that Hurricane Season 2013 is here and it only takes one. Have your hurricane plan ready just in case its needed later this Summer. I am not so concerned with early season tropical development compared to the Cape Verde storms which are long tracked classic hurricanes. We may see a few this season.

[Paul Robison]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles continue to advertise an area of disturbed weather festering in the Western Gulf in the 8-10 day time frame. Something to watch in the week ahead.

latest model UTC model disagrees; seems to show more a florida problem than a texas problem.

[skidog40]

any development from the south GOM today?

[Rip76]

I wonder if some of that moisture could make it up here.

[Ptarmigan]

any development from the south GOM today?

No low level vorticity to speak off, and analyzed 20 to 30 knots of shear not favorable.

But it is nice to look at.

It would be nice if we got rain from it.

[skidog40]

first bands coming in now

[jeff]

first bands coming in now

More like the seabreeze front.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to advertise the heat ridge breaking down and lift N into the Central Plains early next week. That model also suggests increasing deep tropical moisture surging into the NW Caribbean late this weekend. Something to monitor during the late week/early next week timeframe.

[Paul Robison]

Euro tries to close off a low just before landfall about day 9. Well South of the border. Farther South than Alex 2010 from the looks of it.

But it is 9 days away, still time for models to adjust to the border and rain in my yard.

Read this tidbit: The Brownsville AFD:

ECMWF/GFS BOTH HINT AT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AROUND 12Z ON THE 18TH. BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE
MOVING WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX. WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINING STRONG OVER TX AM A LITTLE SCEPTICAL THAT MUCH
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX BOOSTING UP POPS A BIT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NHC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.