Hey, I like your bike.wxman57 wrote:It's easy for a meteorologist to make a perfect forecast if he's allowed to wait until the event is happening to issue our forecast. However, we don't have that luxury. We must make a 3-5 day forecast for our clients, regardless of our confidence in the potential event. A forecast is always what the meteorologist thinks is most likely to happen. For now, that "most likely" event would be cold rain with a little sleet mixed in at firs.biggerbyte wrote:The only way, in this case, to get an accurate forecast for the upcoming event, is to wait until Wednesday evening. There are too many variables to make a call. Having said that, I will say that I don't see how we in s.e Texas could have anything like the potentials for DFW, but it is still to early to say that we will not see some sleet of more than just the scattered variety. Everything everyone is saying at this point can be nothing more than mere speculation.
Wednesday night... Let's make the call.
Anyway, my statements mainly apply to the folks in this forum.
I would add one thing to your statement though.. Most forecasters I've known let it be known that anything they forecast beyond three days is speculative. Even Doc would always mention that we need to wait and see. The late Harold Taft would not even give a forecast more than three days out. It is just not accurate.
Having said that.... I just don't see the point of giving someone a forecast that can not be relied on. The extended portion will change. Would it not make more sense to pay for accuracy, vs. speculation? We've even had short range forecast bust big time when folks relied too heavily on the models.
With all due respect my friend, and I don't mean to be rude, but I have to say that even though I agree that there is a service to be provided for folks willing to pay for it, that does not mean they are getting their monies worth. But hey, if the client does not mind paying for an inaacurate long range forecast, that is up to them.. Right? At any rate... I'm just trying to make a point, and I know some of you don't agree with me. However, I can tell you that many big names in the industry do. I've already mentioned two of them.
