92L: Central Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

The early tracks and intensity guidance are not too keen on development...

06072013 00Z aal92_2013060700_track_early.png

06062013 00Z 92L aal92_2013060700_intensity_early.png

[srainhoutx]

The overnight GFS suggests an area of low pressure develops from 92L in about 8-10 days in the Western Caribbean. The longer range GFS is also suggesting a weak tropical disturbance heading WNW across the Western Gulf and approaching the NE Coast of Mexico/South Texas Coastline in about 12-13 days. The Euro suggests no real development as it crosses the wind sheared Caribbean.

[djmike]

If 92l goes into NMX or STX, I will be so upset. They have gotten several disturbances over the past few years and left us in northern Tx high and dry. We need that rain whether its a tropical storm or not.

[wxman57]

I don't think the GFS is developing 92L in the west Caribbean. It takes the main vorticity north of the Caribbean and toward the SE U.S. Coast by Tuesday then northward.