May: Isolated Showers To End The Month

[Paul Robison]

Folks, we need to quit worrying about OK city and the storms up to our north and focus on next week.

HGX says:

UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS UP OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE 500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SETX SATURDAY AN SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR THE AFTERNOON FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES
FALL OFF AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW RESUMES. ALSO OF INTEREST LOOKS
TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING SETX AND WESTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.



Ladies and gentlemen, this is either going to turn out to be an Ike or an Allison, and it's going to do SERIOUS damage to Houston. So get ready for it. Any questions?

[CAK]

Folks, we need to quit worrying about OK city and the storms to our north and focus on next week.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is either going to turn out to be an Ike or an Allison, and it's going to do SERIOUS damage to Houston. So get ready for it. Any questions?

Paul, you need to get a grip. Children have died in OK. We will not stop worrying about that area. Also, a lot can be learned about that storm which may save lives in the future.

As far as next week, we are WAY TOO FAR OUT to be predicting destruction in Houston from a tropical wave... Seriously, you are doing this forum a disservice, calm down.

[Paul Robison]

Folks, we need to quit worrying about OK city and the storms to our north and focus on next week.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is either going to turn out to be an Ike or an Allison, and it's going to do SERIOUS damage to Houston. So get ready for it. Any questions?

Paul, you need to get a grip. Children have died in OK. We will not stop worrying about that area. Also, a lot can be learned about that storm which may save lives in the future.

As far as next week, we are WAY TOO FAR OUT to be predicting destruction in Houston from a tropical wave... Seriously, you are doing this forum a disservice, calm down.

You're right, I am doing you a disservice. Tropical wave does not necessarily equal Tropical Cyclone, obviously. But, let's not have children die in TX, either, okay.

[Texas Pirate]

Folks, we need to quit worrying about OK city and the storms to our north and focus on next week.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is either going to turn out to be an Ike or an Allison, and it's going to do SERIOUS damage to Houston. So get ready for it. Any questions?

Paul, you need to get a grip. Children have died in OK. We will not stop worrying about that area. Also, a lot can be learned about that storm which may save lives in the future.

As far as next week, we are WAY TOO FAR OUT to be predicting destruction in Houston from a tropical wave... Seriously, you are doing this forum a disservice, calm down.

You're right, I am doing you a disservice. Tropical wave does not necessarily equal Tropical Cyclone, obviously. But, let's not have children die in TX, either, okay.

Paul its an interesting tidbit to watch no doubt. At least we have a week's watch and can protect our children. Unlike, those innocents who were lost in this horrific tragedy in Moore - no time to really speak of. Out of respect to the parents who have lost their children, that is the quiet focus now. As a mother who has lost a child, it is gut wrenching and life altering. A tropical wave does bear watching, but we do have a week, IF anything truly develops. An interesting tid bit to watch, but now all eyes are on Moore and with deepest prayers for all who have suffered.

[srainhoutx]

Paul Robinson, you need to dial back the 'hype talk" a bit. There are no indications of looming tropical troubles other than warm and muggy weather for the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend and maybe some increased tropical moisture early in June. We have a long history on this forum of providing good and factual information on all type of weather and we are not going to change that 'history' at this time. If there is ever a real threat of significant weather, be it tropical, severe, flood or cold wintry freezing, you'll likely read it here first and it will be based on sound meteorological facts, not wishcasting or hype. Our board is fortunate to have decades if not centuries of combined experience , be it from our Pro Mets or very knowledgeable members that are extremely familiar with Texas and Gulf Coast Weather.

[srainhoutx]

Anyway, looks like ballpark a tenth at the backyard, judging from radar estimates, Hooks and IAH. Bummer. Sounds like most showers/storms will be South of MBY this PM.

Just emptied 1.45 inches out of my rain gauge. Not too shabby.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Overnight storms which produced severe weather and very heavy rainfall over our northern counties has put down a well defined outflow boundary which extends from near High Island to Hobby Airport to Sugar Land to Wharton to Victoria. Overnight storms have exited the area into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Air mass south of the outflow boundary remains very moist and unstable with dewpoints in the low to mid 70’s compared with low to mid 60’s north of the boundary. Once clouds break this morning and surface heating begins, expect weak capping to erode and new storms to fire along this boundary.

While severe weather parameters are fairly weak, modest low level inflow and weak shear, instability will be high this afternoon and storm motions on the slow side. Expect influx of the coastal seabreeze boundary to collide with stationary outflow boundary helping to initiate deep convection. Given the instability in place, a few storms will likely become severe with damaging hail being the primary threat. Slow storm motion in this very moist air mass also could result in some large rainfall amounts in a short period of time of 2-3 inches. Not overly concerned about any flooding threat as long as storms do not sit on an area for an extended period of time.

Thunderstorm chances while on the low side with be in the forecast Friday and possibly Saturday.

[txflagwaver]

A little rain won't hurt...and all weather that comes from the Gulf of Mexico is not going to be an Ike or Allison. It's Spring folks. Weather a little more active...soon it will be Summer...95 and muggy with a 100% chance of mosquitoes.

Frankly I would welcome a dull, boring, non eventful summer weather wise.

As for the Moore, OK area being a topic of discussion...they have a long road ahead and will need help and prayers along the way. I am glad the death toll was wrong and so called experts were incorrect...but ANY loss of life is tragic, especially when children are involved.

I will keep them in my prayers.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I had standing water everywhere around me in North Montgomery County this morning. What a storm!

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff re Moore/Newcastle Tornado:

24 fatalities
237 injured
101 pulled alive from debris
2450 homes damaged or destroyed
10,000 persons affected

The chance of the same location be hit by 2 EF 5 tornadoes is about 1 in a trillion.

The 5-20-13 tornado was likely weaker than the 5-3-99 tornado which had winds recorded by a potable Doppler radar unit of 318 mph. Estimated winds on 5-20-13 were on the order of 200-220mph.

The surprisingly low number of fatalities for such a large tornado is likely attributed to the time of day which the tornado hit and the longer than average lead warning times. The tornado struck in the middle of the afternoon when most residents were at work and not at home unlike the Joplin, MO tornado (Sunday evening at dinner time) and the 5-3-99 Moore Tornado which struck after 600pm. Most of the damage with this tornado occurred in subdivisions and luckily many of the homes were not occupied at the time of the tornado. It is also clear that the two elementary schools impacted offered some of the best shelter/protection even though they suffered extensive damage as noted in the damage photos below of the surrounding subdivision. Children being in those schools and not in the surrounding homes where many likely lived saved their lives.

The lead warning time for this tornado was 16 minutes or nearly double the average. Most residents in the path knew the tornado was coming and did exactly the correct tornado safety precautions. In the areas of EF5 damage in/around the elementary schools unless underground there was little hope of surviving. The large diameter of the tornado (1.3 miles) suggest a single location in the funnel may have sustained winds of 150-220mph for over 1 minute....a very long time. There is little doubt that the numerous tornado shelters installed in many homes after the 5-3-99 tornado saved many lives in this event.

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Tower Plaza Elementary School:

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Brairwood Elementary School and surrounding subdivision:

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Moore Medical Center

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Ariel Damage Images:

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[jasons2k]

I had .19" here. Just a couple miles to my north, they got a lot more - lots of standing water headed towards Conroe. I wish he satellite would get up again - it's gonna be interesting to see what the outflow/sea breeze does today.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, it's becoming more diffuse, but the winds still show where it is. Even up here, it feels pretty humid.

I guess this is GOES 14 - it's not labeled: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes.

[jasons2k]

West of downtown, you can see it roughly along the US 59 corridor, pretty much stationary with clouds slowly building along it.

[mckinne63]

Hearing lots of thunder in Stafford. Skies don't look that dark though. Come on rain!

[TexasBreeze]

The only shower/tstorm of the evening develop south of our lawns Ed. My local could use some rain.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the Panhandle may benefit from some storms tomorrow. The models continue to ‘hint’ a wet pattern is ahead for the areas affected by the ongoing drought in West and Central Texas as well as the Plains. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Moderate Risk for severe storms today over portions of the Panhandle of Texas

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHWEST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...

...NORTHEAST STATES...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING THIS
MORNING...BUT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME HAIL. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED
FROM EASTERN PA/NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF MD/VA
AND NC. STORMS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.

...TX/OK...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AND SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX.
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD BENEATH A RATHER STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE
CDS AREA ALONG WITH FULL HEATING ALL DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS AREA SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /OVER 8.0 C/KM/ AND
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
ARE FORECAST TO BE EXCEPTIONAL...THIS REGION WILL BE UNDER A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE WITH ONLY SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF TUS.
GIVEN CURRENT MOTION...THIS TROUGH WILL BE OVER WEST TX AROUND 21Z.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER OK AND
LIE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AROUND THE SAME TIME. IF THIS SERIES OF
EVENTS CAN COME TOGETHER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER SMALL AREA
OF ENHANCED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
THIS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK. LARGE/SLOW-MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS
MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS
EVENING.

[srainhoutx]

5 inches of rain has fallen overnight across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau in W Central Texas. Lesser amount have fallen down toward Del Rio as a slow moving mesoscale convection system dropped S. There is a short wave moving NE in old Mexico that will may well interact with the decaying MCS where multiple boundaries have developed. The 06Z WRF is suggesting storms fire across much of Central and SE Texas later today except closer to the Coast where capping may be a bit stronger. N of I-10, there appears to be no capping issues and training cell may become an issue with heavy rainfall into Saturday before we dry out.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Large thunderstorm complex overnight across W and now into SW TX has produced much needed widespread rainfall over that area including nearly 5 inches around Junction this morning. This complex has developed a MVC (area of meso scale low pressure) near Del Rio currently while a short wave trough over N MX is also moving eastward into SW TX. Expect currently activity ongoing west of San Antonio to weaken with time this morning as is usually the diurnal process to such complexes. High resolution meso models bring the remains of this system toward the NW ½ of SE TX during peak heating this afternoon. Forecast soundings over our northern and NW counties by 300pm should an unstable air mass with CAPE values of 3000 J/kg and a weakening to breakable cap. Models are fairly aggressive in breaking out thunderstorms along and N of the HWY 105 corridor by mid afternoon into the evening hours. HRRR model suggests storms will develop as far south as the US 59 corridor while the other models are displaced further to the north. Given pooling moisture and weaker capping over the northern counties, think the latter solution will verify best, but the potential for an inland moving sebreeze boundary could help to develop as few storms southward.

Storm motions will be slow with weak steering aloft and with PWS of 1.5-1.8 inches by this afternoon north of I-10 some heavy rainfall looks possible. This is the same area that had heavy rainfall Tuesday night/Wednesday morning but is also the area that was in the worst drought conditions over our area. Given the forecast instability, a few storms could become strong to severe with large hail and gusty winds the main threats.

While an upper ridge attempts to build over the area over the holiday weekend, models are continuing to hint at locally induced convection being possible possibly along a seabreeze boundary or incoming boundaries from a more unsettled pattern over W TX. Think it is best to hold on to daily 20% chances through at least Monday, but today will likely feature the best and most widespread rainfall chances.

[srainhoutx]

Euro forecast trough late Thursday is rather amplified for the end of May, and a hint of a negative tilt, which is usually happier for SETX than neutral or positively tilted troughs.

Almost a week away...

Looks wet should it verify.