April - Ends on Mild Note

[srainhoutx]

New storms are developing in Grimes and Western Montgomery Counties. Very slow moving storms are currently over the Katy/Brookshire area with some developing showers/storms over NW Harris County as well.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
452 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ197-199-210>213-292230-
COLORADO TX-AUSTIN TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-
MONTGOMERY TX-
452 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KATY TO
WEIMAR MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD
TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KATY...HEMPSTEAD...SEALY...PRAIRIE VIEW...COLUMBUS...BELLVILLE...
BROOKSHIRE...PINEHURST...WEIMAR...WALLER...MAGNOLIA...SAN FELIPE...
PINE ISLAND...PATTISON AND STAGECOACH.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports .50 inches of rain in the past 15 minutes in Katy

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
503 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

FORT BEND TX-AUSTIN TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-
503 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
HOUR AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
KATY...SEALY...BROOKSHIRE...SAN FELIPE AND PATTISON.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports 1.04 inches of rain in the past hour in Katy

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
536 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ226-236-292315-
MATAGORDA TX-WHARTON TX-
536 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...ISOLATED STRONG STORM OVER SOUTHERN WHARTON COUNTY...

AT 533 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLING-IAGO...OR 12 MILES
SOUTH OF WHARTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND HAIL UP TO HALF INCH BE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOLING-IAGO.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ198-212-292330-
WALLER TX-GRIMES TX-
609 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WALLER AND SOUTHERN
GRIMES COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAVASOTA...MOVING NORTH
AT 25 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR NAVASOTA AND RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
WALLER AND SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTIES.

[Ptarmigan]

South Texas got some good rain, so I am pleased as they really need it. Some areas saw 5 inches of rain.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level low centered between San Antonio and Houston this morning is moving eastward slowly and will help drive another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

Large complex of thunderstorms over the NW Gulf of Mexico south of the SW LA coast this morning is the remains from the storm cluster that moved off the middle TX coast overnight. Additional storms have developed from Matagorda Bay into Matagorda County recently. Upper level system between Houston and San Antonio responsible for the active weather will continue a slow east movement today passing directly over the SE TX region. With skies mostly clear across the area this morning, surface heating will commence early with temperatures warming into the upper 70’s by late morning. Cold pocket aloft with the upper level low and warming low levels will make for an increasingly unstable air mass by late morning into the early afternoon hours. Expect scattered storms to develop by early to mid afternoon as convective temperatures are reached.

Hard to pin point any favored area over another as there are likely numerous low level boundaries in place from the storms yesterday. Position of the upper low would tend to favor areas along and SE of US 59 for the best chances for afternoon convection. I am always wary with large NW Gulf storm complexes that they will “rob” the inflow of moisture and prevent or greatly limit storm development. For what it is worth the short term models do not show much activity his afternoon.

Of concern will be the potential for slow moving storms with weak surface to 700mb steering and continued fairly high moisture levels. Evening sounding from Corpus had a PW value of 1.74 inches and the current meso analysis shows 1.4 inch PWS along and south of I-10 and values of 1.6 along the coast. Moisture is being transported NNE from the Matagorda Bay region on the ESE side of the upper level low. With storm motions of less than 10mph and the moisture profile in place, rainfall rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour can be expected under the stronger storms. Radar estimates yesterday over Jackson and Wharton Counties indicated totals of 3-5 inches in a couple of hours. Will have to watch for cell training and continuous development of cells today especially on the SE side of the upper low where favorable divergence aloft will help vent convection.

Very strong cold front is still on tap for Thursday with record low temperatures likely Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday will feel more like early March than early May with lows in the 40’s and highs struggling to reach 70. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front on Thursday, but at this time the severe threat will be low and the fast movement of the front should preclude prolonged heavy rainfall.

[weatherguy425]

Greetings from NW Texas,

Currently 94°, with a few dry-line induced high based thunderstorms. Cold front will blow through tomorrow with 50 mph and blowing dust. Then, could have winter precipitation Wednesday night!!

Crazy!

[Paul Robison]

[quote="srainhoutx"]Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level low centered between San Antonio and Houston this morning is moving eastward slowly and will help drive another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

Large complex of thunderstorms over the NW Gulf of Mexico south of the SW LA coast this morning is the remains from the storm cluster that moved off the middle TX coast overnight. Additional storms have developed from Matagorda Bay into Matagorda County recently. Upper level system between Houston and San Antonio responsible for the active weather will continue a slow east movement today passing directly over the SE TX region. With skies mostly clear across the area this morning, surface heating will commence early with temperatures warming into the upper 70’s by late morning. Cold pocket aloft with the upper level low and warming low levels will make for an increasingly unstable air mass by late morning into the early afternoon hours. Expect scattered storms to develop by early to mid afternoon as convective temperatures are reached.

Hard to pin point any favored area over another as there are likely numerous low level boundaries in place from the storms yesterday. Position of the upper low would tend to favor areas along and SE of US 59 for the best chances for afternoon convection. I am always wary with large NW Gulf storm complexes that they will “rob” the inflow of moisture and prevent or greatly limit storm development. For what it is worth the short term models do not show much activity his afternoon.

Of concern will be the potential for slow moving storms with weak surface to 700mb steering and continued fairly high moisture levels. Evening sounding from Corpus had a PW value of 1.74 inches and the current meso analysis shows 1.4 inch PWS along and south of I-10 and values of 1.6 along the coast. Moisture is being transported NNE from the Matagorda Bay region on the ESE side of the upper level low. With storm motions of less than 10mph and the moisture profile in place, rainfall rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour can be expected under the stronger storms. Radar estimates yesterday over Jackson and Wharton Counties indicated totals of 3-5 inches in a couple of hours. Will have to watch for cell training and continuous development of cells today especially on the SE side of the upper low where favorable divergence aloft will help vent convection.

Very strong cold front is still on tap for Thursday with record low temperatures likely Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday will feel more like early March than early May with lows in the 40’s and highs struggling to reach 70. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front on Thursday, but at this time the severe threat will be low and the fast movement of the front should preclude prolonged heavy rainfall.

Good summation, Jeff. So what part of I-10 will the rail fall on? North of I-10 or South of I-10?

[jasons2k]

So far, nada, zip here the last two days. Keep an eye on the storms just to my northwest, but with that storm near Conroe falling apart, I'm not too encouraged.

weatherguy425 : I remember those days up in Lubbock. One time back in '97, I saw a warm 78 degrees, rain, hail, and then dust, freezing temps and snow all in the same day. That was during an outbreak of 14 tornadoes followed by an arctic front - the kind where it drops over 30 degrees in 30 minutes.

Oh, it hailed at my house 4 different times that day too. It was just nuts...

[Paul Robison]

[quote="jasons"]So far, nada, zip here the last two days. Keep an eye on the storms just to my northwest, but with that storm near Conroe falling apart, I'm not too encouraged.

Are you sure that storm near Conroe is falling apart, Jasons? Radar seems to suggest that it's getting stronger AND COMING TOWARD HOUSTON!

[jasons2k]

Well, now my time lapse won't go back that far. At the time, it appeared there were two distinct cells in northern Montgomery, one out on the lake and one east of I-45, all moving to the SSE. It looked like the eastern cell was collapsing while the western cell was expanding some and moving more southward.

Fast forward to now, and the core of that old eastern cell looks like it just continued to pound southwest and merge into the whole complex, as other storms formed and moved-in from the south. Now it's one big cluster between Magnolia and Tomball with one piece drifting north and the other one drifting to the south. Theoretically, it should all slowly rotate to the SE now around the ULL...we shall see though. The storms moving NW kinda makes it messy.

[Rip76]

Nice little rain in 77089.
Seems like a pop-up sea breeze thingy..

[Paul Robison]

[srainhoutx"]Morning e-mail from Jeff:



Very strong cold front is still on tap for Thursday with record low temperatures likely Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday will feel more like early March than early May with lows in the 40’s and highs struggling to reach 70. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front on Thursday, but at this time the severe threat will be low and the fast movement of the front should preclude prolonged heavy rainfall.

[/quote]Good summation, Jeff. So what part of I-10 will the rail fall on? North of I-10 or South of I-10?[/quote]


OK, now that we're done with our evening storms, who's gonna get the nasty stuff on Thursday? I gotta go see my doctor who's in the downtown area at 10:30 AM. Anybody think I"m going to be rained in out there? And how about those breezes?