April - Ends on Mild Note

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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Fairly active night across SE TX as the 850mb front and strong short wave combined to produce numerous elevated thunderstorms…many of which contained small hail and a plethora of lightning.

Back edge of the activity is along a line from Huntsville to Katy to Palacios and moving E at 30-40mph. Radar and ground truth reports indicate a solid .5-1.5 inches along and SE of US 59 overnight with a few locations pushing 2.0-2.5 inches over the NW part of Galveston Bay and in eastern Harris County.

In addition to the rainfall, surface temperatures have fallen into the low 40’s for most location which is only a few degrees off the record for the day. Upper trough and clearing line will progress rapidly across the region this morning and afternoon allowing strong April sun to work on this cold low level air mass. Even with the cold start, we should be able to rebound into the upper 60’s by late this afternoon.

Cold again Friday morning under clear skies and light winds with lows in the lower to mid 40’s for most areas. Winds swing back to the SE late Friday and a warm front begins to take shape off the coast. Models remain fairly aggressive in bringing a strong short wave into the area on Sunday from the SW. While this seemed a bit of a reach yesterday the agreement in the models over the past 24 hours cannot be ignored and rain chances are now being required on Sunday. There remains some debate on how much moisture will work into the area, but there is some increasing concern that with a warm front lifting northward and strong lift from the short wave, convection will develop near the coast late Saturday and spread rapidly ENE across areas mainly south of I-10 early Sunday. If models continue to show good agreement on this feature, rain chances may need to be increased more on Sunday.

Increasingly warm and humid early next week under southerly flow and mostly zonal (west to east) flow aloft. Next potential cold front penciled in for about a week from today.
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Katdaddy
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The latest from SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook. Perhaps some convective development along the Upper TX Coast Sunday afternoon

...SE TX TO LA COAST...
THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND IS FORECAST TO INDUCE LIFT ACROSS THE STALLED RESIDUAL FRONT
NEAR THE GULF COAST. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A
SMALL MCS FROM THE TX COAST EAST ACROSS SRN LA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
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GFS still showing a cold front next weekend...Lows in the 40s
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After a chilly morning with temps in the upper 40s and low 50s we will have warm and sunny afternoon with mid 70s. Saturday looks to be mostly sunny with highs approaching 80F. A quick moving disturbance brings a slight chance of showers and possible thunderstorms late Saturday and early Sunday. Long range models are still showing another strong cold front late next week.
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The 00Z Global Ensemble suite continues to advertise a very deep trough developing early next week out West and sliding East during the mid week time from. While timing differences to exist, there are indications that this storm system will once again bring chilly Canadian air rather far S later next week and a potential severe weather episode across Oklahoma and parts of Texas/Arkansas. There may be capping issues further S once again limiting the severe potential, but we’ll continue to monitor as we are in that transition period during Spring when the weather can become rather wild. We will see.

Euro Ensemble Mean (500mb):
The attachment 04122013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA144.gif is no longer available
GEFS Mean (500mb):
04122013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA144.gif
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

CORRECTED FOR SEVERE THREAT DAYS 5 AND 6

...DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE WRN U.S. ONE SIGNIFICANT
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A SFC FRONT INTO OK MONDAY AND DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OF POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE CONTINUED MOISTENING THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
MORE ROBUST ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR A DRYLINE/FRONTAL
INTERSECTION WITHIN BROAD STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SUPPORTS AN EWD SHIFT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF
MO INTO NERN TX.

..DARROW.. 04/12/2013

04122013 SPC day48prob.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Paul Robison

Katdaddy wrote:After a chilly morning with temps in the upper 40s and low 50s we will have warm and sunny afternoon with mid 70s. Saturday looks to be mostly sunny with highs approaching 80F. A quick moving disturbance brings a slight chance of showers and possible thunderstorms late Saturday and early Sunday. Long range models are still showing another strong cold front late next week.
Will we get anything severe out of this?
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:^^^

No.

One of the ingredients missing last week was the higher dew points that we are already seeing over the Gulf. If you recall, dew points were in the 50’s over the Gulf waters prior to the last week cold front and much lower over Texas. While this appears to be a linear (squall line) event, I wouldn’t totally discount a severe storm or two ahead of the advancing cold front this time around as low level moisture will certainly be in place across Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas and Louisiana as we have a long fetch return flow (SE winds) and as the trough deepens to our W, we’ll need to watch the dry line in W Texas for any discrete cells that try to fire before the front accelerates SE. We will see.
04142013 13Z_metars_abi.gif
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY4
PERIOD REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...MAJOR DIFFERENCES ARE EXPOSED BY
WEDNESDAY IN THAT THE GFS ERODES THE CP AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLONE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS KS
INTO SRN IA BY MIDNIGHT. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POLAR
SURGE AND THE LACK OF A MEANINGFUL SFC LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CP AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MAY BETTER REPRESENT THE TRUE
SURGE THAT COULD OCCUR BY DAY4. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY AND A SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS OK THEN PROGRESS AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. IN ADDITION TO A SQUALL
LINE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
OVER CNTRL/NERN TX.
WHILE THE ECMWF MAY BETTER DEPICT THE SCENARIO
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT WOULD
POTENTIALLY UNFOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

..DARROW.. 04/14/2013

04142013 SPC day48prob.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Another cold front? Is it common to see this kind of cold weather this far into spring? When do we on average see the last of cold fronts?
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jojotheidiotclown wrote:Another cold front? Is it common to see this kind of cold weather this far into spring? When do we on average see the last of cold fronts?

quote="jojotheidiotclown"]Another cold front?

Yes

Is it common to see this kind of cold weather this far into spring?

Not all the time, but it happens. So yes.

When do we on average see the last of cold fronts?[/quote]

Depends. We have seen fronts come through in May and June. I do remember one in August 2004 that really cooled us down (August 13-16).
Paul Robison

srainhoutx wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:^^^

No.

One of the ingredients missing last week was the higher dew points that we are already seeing over the Gulf. If you recall, dew points were in the 50’s over the Gulf waters prior to the last week cold front and much lower over Texas. While this appears to be a linear (squall line) event, I wouldn’t totally discount a severe storm or two ahead of the advancing cold front this time around as low level moisture will certainly be in place across Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas and Louisiana as we have a long fetch return flow (SE winds) and as the trough deepens to our W, we’ll need to watch the dry line in W Texas for any discrete cells that try to fire before the front accelerates SE. We will see.
04142013 13Z_metars_abi.gif
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY4
PERIOD REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...MAJOR DIFFERENCES ARE EXPOSED BY
WEDNESDAY IN THAT THE GFS ERODES THE CP AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLONE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS KS
INTO SRN IA BY MIDNIGHT. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POLAR
SURGE AND THE LACK OF A MEANINGFUL SFC LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CP AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MAY BETTER REPRESENT THE TRUE
SURGE THAT COULD OCCUR BY DAY4. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY AND A SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS OK THEN PROGRESS AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. IN ADDITION TO A SQUALL
LINE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
OVER CNTRL/NERN TX.
WHILE THE ECMWF MAY BETTER DEPICT THE SCENARIO
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT WOULD
POTENTIALLY UNFOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

..DARROW.. 04/14/2013

04142013 SPC day48prob.gif

But who has the better chance of getting this severe weather? Areas north of I-10 or south of I-10?
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Areas to the N of I-10 would have better chances of seeing severe weather at this point. Stay tuned.
Paul Robison

Katdaddy wrote:Areas to the N of I-10 would have better chances of seeing severe weather at this point. Stay tuned.

Image

A cold front will move through southeast Texas on Thursday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe, mainly across central Texas. Much cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front with highs on Friday in the upper 60s to near 70.

Yes. Would seem to be more of a central texas issue than a se texas one.
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The Storm Predication Center has outlined a Day 3 Moderate Risk for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas with a Day 4 outlined area extending into Texas. The overnight guidance has trended slower with the progression of the cold front into the day time hours on Thursday for SE Texas. While the greatest risk for severe storms appears to be better for locations N of I-10, we'll continue to monitor this storm system over the next couple of days as this potential has a somewhat better chance of producing severe weather across our Region ~vs- last week. Areas to the W of Austin/San Antonio on up to Dallas/Ft Worth will need to watch this event a bit closer with the slower moving cold front and the long fetch return flow off the NW Gulf already established and with dew points already nearing the 70F point. While there will likely be capping issues further S, the potential is there for some severe storms along and ahead of the advancing cold front Wednesday to our W and Thursday across SE Texas. An isolated tornado or two may not be out of the question. Stay Tuned. Also much cooler air is on tap for the coming weekend behind this late season Canadian front.

Day 3:
The attachment 04152013 SPC day3otlk_0730.gif is no longer available
Day 4:
04152013 SPC day48prob.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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As of now, this looks to be more of a hail/wind threat. Will there be tornadoes? Yes. I think it's too early to say though this will be a huge tornado outbreak like I saw some else say elsewhere. Give it another day before those statements are made. Makes me mad when people give out forecast like those. Don't scare the public, just make them aware!

Sorry. A little rant I had to get out of me.
Anyway, we could break record lows later this week dating back to 1901. SE TX could see upper 30s possibly Saturday morning. Crazy Spring weather we've had thus far.
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:At 60 hours, NAM is strictly for entertainment purposes. But what entertainment, a lone cell fires up late Wednesday near our Aggie friends.
What are the thoughts on timing? I've got a friend driving from Houston - Austin Thursday afternoon. Will it clear out of Houston or Central Texas by lunchtime Thursday?
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It is a warm day and should be warm this week. Very tragic day in Boston. :( :cry:

Live blog: Explosions in Copley Square
http://live.boston.com/Event/Live_blog_ ... ley_Square
Paul Robison

[quote="srainhoutx"]The Storm Predication Center has outlined a Day 3 Moderate Risk for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas with a Day 4 outlined area extending into Texas. The overnight guidance has trended slower with the progression of the cold front into the day time hours on Thursday for SE Texas. While the greatest risk for severe storms appears to be better for locations N of I-10, we'll continue to monitor this storm system over the next couple of days as this potential has a somewhat better chance of producing severe weather across our Region ~vs- last week. Areas to the W of Austin/San Antonio on up to Dallas/Ft Worth will need to watch this event a bit closer with the slower moving cold front and the long fetch return flow off the NW Gulf already established and with dew points already nearing the 70F point. While there will likely be capping issues further S, the potential is there for some severe storms along and ahead of the advancing cold front Wednesday to our W and Thursday across SE Texas. An isolated tornado or two may not be out of the question. Stay Tuned. Also much cooler air is on tap for the coming weekend behind this late season Canadian front.


take a look at this AFD srainhoutx:



FRONT STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURS BRINGING FAIRLY GOOD RAIN CHANCES (70% NW, 40-50% SW).
PARAMETERS FOR ANY ASSOCIATED SVR WX WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED
INTO BUT PROBABLY WON`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THINGS UNTIL LATE
WED ONCE INSTABILITY FACTORS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. CAP
MIGHT BE THE MAIN LIMITING ISSUE...BUT THERE`S ALSO SIGNS IT COULD
ERODE ACROSS NRN PARTS ON WED AS A LEAD S/W PASSES NEARBY. FWIW
THAT WAS BETTER DEPICTED IN THE 00Z/06Z RUNS THAN THE LATEST ONES.
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER IN.


keyword is Northern parts. I live on the southwest side, south of I-10. I'm safe. TEEHEEHEE!


off topic but here's my weathergirl friend with our new weather balloon:

Image
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Warm and muggy with slight rain chances tomorrow. Strong cold front sweeps across SE TX on Thursday. Threat of severe storms look be N of I-10 but still 2 days out. A cold airmass for April behind the front with Friday highs reaching the upper 60s record lows in the low 40s Saturday morning. Saturday will reach the mid 70s. A cool start for BP MS 150 but mostly sunny skies will prevail.
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There still remain some differences regarding the timing of the cold front on Thursday, but is does appear that the mid day to afternoon time frame will be the likely outcome with the front nearing Bryan/College Station near the noon hour and points further SE later in the afternoon/evening. Capping issues still appear likely further to the S and W of Houston Metro with the best chance of the cap eroding N of I-10. The primary storm mode will probably be a squall line with a few severe storms possible with hail and damaging winds being the greatest threat. An isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out mainly N and E of Houston. Much colder air will settle across the Region Friday into early Saturday with near record low temps before we warm back up early next week.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI TO THE UPPER TX
COAST...

...LOWER MI TO UPPER TX COAST...

STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...100KT+...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER WEST TX THEN EJECT INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE WILL
ENSURE CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAINTAINED AS IT
SURGES TO A POSITION FROM NRN LOWER MI...SWWD ACROSS NRN IL/CNTRL
MO...SWWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST BY 18Z. AN ELONGATED SEVERE
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND ANY DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THIS LINE SHOULD SERVE TO AID
BUOYANCY FOR STRONGLY SHEARED SQUALL LINE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE REGARDING INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...BUT THE NAM DOES FORECAST 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE LIKELY
STORM MODE WILL BE LINEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL CONVECTION. IF BUOYANCY IS GREATER THAN FORECAST
THEN SEVERE PROBS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING/SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 04/16/2013
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