look at day 3, maybe some area-wide rain ?
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_prt.html
SPC AC 210727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E-CNTRL TX EASTWARD INTO
SRN GA AND N FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
DEEP SOUTH AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN INCREASING NWD FLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE INTO AREAS FROM TX EWD INTO GA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WILL PROBABLY
CONCENTRATE INVOF AND S OF WHERE A WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NERN
GULF STATES.
...E-CNTRL TX EWD INTO PARTS OF THE SERN STATES...
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARDS A SCENARIO IN WHICH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES. BEHIND THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...RICHER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG DURING
THE DAY AND FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF LINE
SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEEMINGLY BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AN
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY SLOWLY INCREASE AS A LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 55
KTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL BIG BEND INTO SRN GA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN THE SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER THE NERN GULF COAST STATES
INTO GA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD...THIS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
MORE BANDS OF STORMS. CONCURRENTLY...THE PROPENSITY FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY BECOME THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
ONCE DETAILS REGARDING THE POLEWARD POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE --TIED IN PART TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY-- BECOME LESS
AMBIGUOUS...A HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA COULD BE WARRANTED FROM SRN
MS/AL EWD INTO SRN GA/N FL.
..SMITH.. 03/21/2013
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0913Z (4:13AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
