Black Swan Weather Events In Houston Area

[Ptarmigan]

Here is an explanation of black swan theory.

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major effect, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
-The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
-The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
-The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2307

Here is what I think would be considered black swan events in weather history in Houston area and explanation for it.
February 14-15, 1895 Snow Event-A freak event by any stretch of the imagination as it was a widespread snow event. An event has never happened since than. There are no weather records of any snowfall of that amount prior to it. Could of it had happened in the past? Probably most likely.
February 1899 Freeze-This freeze by any measure is a huge freeze and quite possibly the biggest as almost the entire nation was freezing. The closest freeze comparable are February 1895, December 1983, and December 1989. Many places set records that are still yet to be shattered to this very day. The freeze that had single digit lows twice in a row in Houston! A rarity as that only four single digit temperatures have been recorded in Houston history; 1899 (2), 1930 (1), and 1989 (1). Houston has never seen freezes with more than one record of single digit temperature.
Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900-The hurricane was detected in early September in the middle of the Atlantic. It was a tropical storm for most of its life. There were forecast that the storm would make a curve to the northwest towards the Carolinas, but it never happened and continued towards Cuba as a tropical storm. By the time it reached the Gulf of Mexico, it rapidly intensify into a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Isaac Cline, who was a the chief meteorologist of the Weather Bureau in Galveston, reportedly made a unilateral decision to issue hurricane warning without authorization. Ironically, he also prevented a sea wall being built when residents called for one to protect Galveston. Tragically, 12,000 people died from massive storm surge from the hurricane. It remains the deadliest American disaster to this very day, exceeding 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and 9/11.
1929 Flood-There were two huge flood events in 1929 a month apart in April and May. The April 13, 1929 rain even was widespread and caused widespread flooding. Many areas saw 10 inches of rain from the April event. The ground was extremely saturated from that event and had little time to dry out as another heavy rain event occurred in mid-May. Than two weeks later, a really widespread heavy rain even occurred, which caused massive flooding on top of the April and May flooding. Bayous reached record peak at the time. There was no call for flood control after the disasterous floods.
December 1935 Flood-Flooding can occur anytime of the year, but this big one occurred in December. Heavy rain occurred in a large area centered over Harris County. Up to 21 inches of rain fell and Buffalo Bayou had off the chart flooding, which exceeded the 1929 flood. The flooding of Buffalo Bayou was so high, it reached second floors of buildings. Seven people died in the flooding. The flooding led to flood control program in 1937.
June 15, 1976 Flood Event-Interesting I would mention this one. Many weather forecasts at the time only called for 20% chance of rain in which there is a chance someone would get rain. However, there was a cold front that was moving south at the time and by the time it reached Houston area, large areas of thunderstorms formed south of Downtown Houston on that afternoon. Once it was all over, 15 inches of rain fell, Texas Medical Center flooded, and 13 people died.

Three are floods, two are freezes, and one hurricane I listed as examples of black swan weather events in Houston area.

Here are hypothetical weather events that are black swan events in Houston area.
Blizzard In Houston-An Arctic cold blast occurs and than a large low pressure system from the west comes and snow starts to fall accompanied by strong winds. It is also a thundersnow event, which is extremely rare in Houston. There have been freezing rain events with thunder and lightning like in January 1997. The snowfall amount exceeds and coverage exceeds that of the 1895 event. This event would shut down the Houston for days and possibly weeks.
Large Category 5 Hurricane-A large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 175 miles and tropical storm force winds extending around 400 miles hits Southeast Texas with sustained winds of 180 mph and central pressure of 875 to 885 millibars. It produces high storm surge as high as 40 feet in Galveston Bay. The hurricane is also slow moving and dumps extremely heavy rain, exceeding that of Claudette in 1979. This event could disrupt energy production and cause well over $100 billion in damages.
Heavy Rain Over Large Area-This event would have widespread heavy rain over a really large area like in June 1899, December 1991, or October 1994, but event larger and heavier. It rains for days, up to 7 days of heavy rain. Over 50,000 square miles see at least 20 inches of rain where the average is around that amount. The October 1994 flood comes close to that. The heaviest rain occurs over Houston. An event like this could cause about $30 to $100 billion in damages.

[Texas Pirate]

This is excellent.
I have read up on many of these "Black Swan" incidents your refer too - also the "Childrens Blizzard" of 1888. Although it did affect MN/NE/SD/ND - the freeze caught everyone off guard here in Texas.

One of the reasons also for these "missed" events was political in nature.
The "newly" formed Weather Service was slow at "alarming" people with such words as "Blizzard" or "hurricanes".
There was also alot of in fighting (glad its all better now )
Trains were used back in the day to relay weather statements to outposts - such as Minneapolis and west.
Sometimes these statements were "delayed" or "oops lost" or the trains themselves broke down leaving those
in the early wx bureaus alone at making decisions or not making decisions, as to not rile up Washington.
This left many victims.

In the case of the Great Storm - Cuba was denied giving us correct information, because Washington's "Weather Service" wanted to take complete control over all things weather related for the US. ("Isaacs Storm")
One of the craziest theories I read in "Isaacs Storm" was some of the mets. back then truly believed that
hurricanes could NOT hit Texas....guess the storm that took down Indianopolis was a fluke? (I think I misspelled
that city's name - well, its no more anyway)

Thanks for posting this. I love reading up on weather events and the history.

[Ptarmigan]

This is excellent.
I have read up on many of these "Black Swan" incidents your refer too - also the "Childrens Blizzard" of 1888. Although it did affect MN/NE/SD/ND - the freeze caught everyone off guard here in Texas.

One of the reasons also for these "missed" events was political in nature.
The "newly" formed Weather Service was slow at "alarming" people with such words as "Blizzard" or "hurricanes".
There was also alot of in fighting (glad its all better now )
Trains were used back in the day to relay weather statements to outposts - such as Minneapolis and west.
Sometimes these statements were "delayed" or "oops lost" or the trains themselves broke down leaving those
in the early wx bureaus alone at making decisions or not making decisions, as to not rile up Washington.
This left many victims.

In the case of the Great Storm - Cuba was denied giving us correct information, because Washington's "Weather Service" wanted to take complete control over all things weather related for the US. ("Isaacs Storm")
One of the craziest theories I read in "Isaacs Storm" was some of the mets. back then truly believed that
hurricanes could NOT hit Texas....guess the storm that took down Indianopolis was a fluke? (I think I misspelled
that city's name - well, its no more anyway)

Thanks for posting this. I love reading up on weather events and the history.

I would of included the 1888 Children's Blizzard in the form of the cold bast that hit Texas. That blizzard came suddenly during a warm day. That would be a black swan event. The cold front reached Galveston and hit a record low of 24°F on January 15 and 23°F on January 16. The high temperature for the 16th was 32°F. It is a record that has yet to be broken to this very day. The record low for 15 and 16 in 1892 and 1972. I am guessing records from 1888 have not been found as I suspect it was colder on January 15-16, 1888 in Houston since Galveston reached lows of 20s. I am guessing Houston hit the teens that time in 1888 and never went above freezing.

South Dakota Magazine-A Somber Winter Read
http://southdakotamagazine.com/childrens-blizzard

NWS Houston-Galveston January Normals, Means, Extremes
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_gls_normals_jan

NWS Houston-Houston January Normals, Means, Extremes
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_jan

I would also include the January 1886 freeze as Galveston reached the teens that time. However, there are no records from January 1886 for Houston and suspect it hit single digits that time.

[Texas Pirate]

The Children's Blizzard by David Laskin is a phenomenal read.
His research is wonderful on the formation of the "weather service"
and his explanation of the weather pattern of this particular event is
very interesting to weather enthusiasts. Everyone can partake in this read.

They still, to this day, have no real count of how many children were actually
caught up in this deadly blizzard. According to the above mentioned book, the
Washington Weather Service did not want to "alarm" Texas or LA growers with this freeze
because the last time they warned, it didn't happen. "No need to get everyone excited
over the words "freeze" and "blizzzard."" Hmmm.....

On a side note, my son, the professional actor, is now sitting in -29 degrees in International Falls, MN.
Yeah I thought of that book and shuttered. Lousy time to be an actor in MN.