January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

While we are enjoying a much calmer pattern and more seasonal temps for the next 7 days or so, there continues to be some indication via the longer range operational and ensemble guidance that a stormy and 'colder' pattern will re establish after about a week to 10 day break. We will see.

[ticka1]

Back to boring weather pattern for us. The cold weather was a welcome change for us here in SE Texas. Hopefully we won't warm up too much. Crossing fingers February has our frigid winter precipitation that us winter weather lovers want to see here SE Texas.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot from the 12Z GFS. Generally dry and still pretty cool next week, with the exception of next Thursday. I think we'll see a good bit of fog around next Wednesday night, particularly out over the water (Houston Ship Channel) with onshore flow and water temps near 50F. I don't see any sign of temps anywhere near what I'd call warm (80F+) for the next few weeks. On the bright side, nothing extreme in the other direction, either.

[harpman]

You and srain pretty much just gave opposite observations!

[cristina99]

Back to boring weather pattern for us. The cold weather was a welcome change for us here in SE Texas. Hopefully we won't warm up too much. Crossing fingers February has our frigid winter precipitation that us winter weather lovers want to see here SE Texas.

I like the way you think ticka1! I am not ready for the warming up yet! You can't eat soup when it's 85 degrees outside!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is suggesting a fairly strong storm system dropping ESE from the Great Basin @ hour 168. That model also suggests some chilly air rebuilding in our source regions of eastern Alaska/Western Canada. We will see.

[Katdaddy]

We look to have perfect weather this weekend....finally. Time to get out and do some running and riding. WXman57 will like the weather even though it may still be a little chilly for him.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the Euro may be on to something in the mid next week time frame. The 18Z GFS has picked up on the short wave/upper air disturbance crossing the Great Basin. With a return flow setting up later this weekend, foggy/cloudy days and nights may return by late Sunday into early next week.

[jasons2k]

Well, I got down to 29 last night with heavy frost. It did a real number on my garden. Up until yesterday the NWS was calling for temps to bottom-out at 31-32 degrees. Then last night when I got home, the rug got pulled-out from under me and I saw a forecast low of 27! Ouch! So much for the notice. I was able to cover a few things but I didn't have time for a full-on sub-30 freeze prep, and today it shows. I really hope this was the coldest morning of the season. I know some people enjoyed a thrill for a few hours but for me, this means months of hard work while I have to re-plant and nurse a lot of plants...I'm so done with this miserable cold. Praying for warm and sunny days ahead

[srainhoutx]

Slightly below normal temps should transition to seasonal norms this weekend as a return flow becomes established prior to the arrival of a front on Monday. The coldest air will be of to our N and E as an Arctic air mass settles into the Great Lakes and Eastern 1/3 of the CONUS.

Changes are ahead next week as the Western Ridge begins to break down and a storm system moves inland from the Pacific. Cloudy and possibly foggy weather looks likely Tuesday into Wednesday with some light showers returning as a disturbance crosses the Region and a Pacific front passes Thursday.

Looking ahead to the end of January, it appears a trough may become established once again across the Western half of the Nation as a Kelvin Wave moves E from the Pacific Ocean and a general stormy pattern returns to begin the month of February. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

It appears we are going to get some G-IV Winter Recon across the Pacific for the upcoming pattern due to the uncertainty. There are also indications that a favorable MJO pulse will arrive during the late January time frame and suggests a noisy Sub Tropical Jet will return as well.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST THU 17 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--
. A. P56/ DROP 11(44.3N 151.0W)/ 19/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02WSC TRACK56
C. 18/1930Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1048 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

VALID 12Z MON JAN 21 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 25 2013

...BITTER COLD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...ARCTIC CHILL DESCENDS UPON THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...

MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN EAST OF 100W WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/EASTERN
CANADA. BY THE DAY 5-6 TIME FRAME...THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WEST ERODES WITH A STRONG WAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. GOOD
CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED ALONG THE WEST COAST...USING A MANUAL
BLEND OF THE 18/00Z GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF MEANS AND
ASPECTS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS MASS FIELD FORECASTS.

GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DAY 4.5 (22/00Z)
WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MIGRATING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE 2 PIECES OF
GUIDANCE WITH THIS OVERALL AREAL SPREAD OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST...EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 4...THERE IS REASONABLE
EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTIC
FRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48
HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO
SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA.

THE 18/00Z GFS WAS NOT A BAD PIECE OF GUIDANCE ON DAY 6 IN
MT/WY/ND/SD/WRN NE GENERALLY BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS WAY
OVERDONE WITH LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS (AN ALBERTA CLIPPER)
DEVELOPING ALONG THE UPPER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC FLOW
INVADING FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF'S 990MB SURFACE LOW ON DAY 6-7
MIGRATING ACROSS ND/MN LOOKED OUT OF PLACE GIVEN THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GOMEX...A PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM ARCTIC BOUNDARY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS. MANUAL GRAPHICS
PREFERRED A MANUAL BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF MEAN AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT SOME SORT OF MID-LEVEL CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TO
EXIT THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES...BUT A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
THE MAGNITUDE A SURFACE WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM NEAR 990 MB WOULD BE
AN EXTREME EXAMPLE OF MERGING POLAR/MARITIME JET STREAM
INTERACTIONS. A 'DEEP' CLIPPER WOULD TYPICALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
998 MB ISH RANGE AT BEST. I STARTED OUT THE DAY 6-7 GRAPHICS WITH
A 'WEAK' SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.

THE SURFACE GRAPHICS DID PART WAYS WITH ASPECTS OF THE 18/00Z GFS
AND GEFS UPSTREAM...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC AFTER DAY 5. THE 18/00Z GEFS/GFS ARE UNUSUALLY SLOW WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF A DEEP WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES
ALONG 45-50N LATITUDE. THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WE BROKE AWAY FROM
THE PREVIOUS GRAPHICS AND SIDED WITH THE ECMWF MEANS. THIS DOES
NOT CHANGE THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND COLD ADVECTION PATTERN
PROJECTED DAYS 5-7. IF ANYTHING...IT ALLOWS FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING (AND MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION) TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM AND
LEE OF THE US ROCKIES PRIOR TO THE CLIPPER'S INTERACTION WITH THE
POLAR JET DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

VOJTESAK

[harpman]

Srain, can you briefly interpret what this mean?

[srainhoutx]

Srain, can you briefly interpret what this mean?

The problems via guidance are depicted in the Day 6 time frame with the energy crossing the Pacific. This is a somewhat data sparse region and additional upper air data will provide some continuity to both the Global operational and ensemble guidance. There remains a great deal of uncertainty on just how the models are handling the MJO which is in phase or octant 7 and whether or not the MJO will move toward 8 which tends to indicate a stormy pattern for the West/Great Basin into the Plains. Hopefully that additional high altitude data above 45,000 ft will provide some clarity in the 250/300mb range and what the jet structure is actually doing at the mid to high latitudes' I know it's sort of technical jargon, but that is a simple explanation of why WSR (Winter Storm Recon) has been tasked.

[harpman]

Thank you.

[wxman57]

We look to have perfect weather this weekend....finally. Time to get out and do some running and riding. WXman57 will like the weather even though it may still be a little chilly for him.

Yeah, I'd like it to be at least 20 degrees warmer for comfortable riding. Maybe a LOW in the low to mid 60s wouldn't be too bad, as we could wait and ride when the temperature got above 75 deg. But since the weather has been too bad to ride for 3 weeks, we'll take what we can get. I don't see any real cold air for us over the next 7-10 days. Possibly a dip into the mid to upper 30s by late next week.

[cristina99]

Srain, can you briefly interpret what this mean?

The problems via guidance are depicted in the Day 6 time frame with the energy crossing the Pacific. This is a somewhat data sparse region and additional upper air data will provide some continuity to both the Global operational and ensemble guidance. There remains a great deal of uncertainty on just how the models are handling the MJO which is in phase or octant 7 and whether or not the MJO will move toward 8 which tends to indicate a stormy pattern for the West/Great Basin into the Plains. Hopefully that additional high altitude data above 45,000 ft will provide some clarity in the 250/300mb range and what the jet structure is actually doing at the mid to high latitudes' I know it's sort of technical jargon, but that is a simple explanation of why WSR (Winter Storm Recon) has been tasked.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... oop-12.gif

I am sorry but can you put it into more layman's terms? Is it good news for winter weather lovers in Texas? I'm trying to learn and understand

[Portastorm]

What it means is that there are conflicting signals about how the weather pattern will shake out over the continental US beyond the 7 days. The additional research and data collection being done will help forecasters and, assumably, computer models with getting a better read on things. As of right now, the forecasters have very little confidence in what the computer models are showing beyond a week out. There is a gigantic storm in the Pacific which may force changes in the weather patterns as well.

Whether it is "good news" or "bad news" for Texas winter weather lovers remains to be seen.

[srainhoutx]

The Winter Storm RECON data is trickling in and the ingest of that data should be fully complete for the 12Z suite of operational and ensemble guidance. The 06Z GEFS is already picking up on the changes via that data and the changes that may occur across the West, Great Basin and Plains as well as across Alaska and Western Canada (our source Regions).

The Big storm across the Pacific appears to arrive onshore later next week in two phases. One into British Columbia/Pacific NW with a second storm system arriving a bit later along the California Coast and moving into the Great Basin. This sort of pattern resembles what we saw near the Christmas time frame when the colder side brought significant snow to the higher elevation of the Sierra Nevada/Northern Arizona/New Mexico and into the Southern and Central Rockies and the Front Range into the Plains, while in the warm sector we saw a severe outbreak.

While it is too soon to know with absolute certainty that the pattern will reload our source regions across Eastern Alaska/Western Canada, there is strong indication that the MJO will play a much more active role and create the potential for a very noisy Sub Tropical Jet as it moves into phase or octant 8. As has already been posted in the February thread, cold air and a noisy SJT may well be established during the early part of February which is prime time climo wise for our Region for all sort of wintry mischief potential. We will see.

06Z GEFS:

The attachment 01192013 06Z GEFS 06zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif is no longer available

The attachment 01182013 06Z GEFS 06zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA264.gif is no longer available

00Z Euro Ensembles:

MJO:

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 22 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 26 2013


ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS A FIXTURE IN THE EAST AND MIDWEST DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
GRAPHICS CONCERNING THE SERIES OF ARCTIC BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE IMPORTANT DETAIL IN THE GRAPHICS WILL BE EXACTLY WHERE THE
SUCCESSION OF ARCTIC BOUNDARIES SETTLE OUT AND MODIFY BETWEEN
35N-40N AND 85W-70W AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE LAST 2-3
DAYS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A FLATTER FLOW PATTERN AND LITTLE TO
NO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS THESE DISTURBANCES
PASS ATOP THE SLOPED ARCTIC FRONT(S). IN OTHER
WORDS...'SUPPRESSED' DISTURBANCES WILL INTENSIFY INVOF THE COASTAL
CAROLINA AND RACE OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...SOUTH/EAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK.

THE 06Z GEFS/OPERATIONAL GFS WERE GOOD PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO
INCORPORATE INTO THE BLEND THIS MORNING. IN PARTICULAR...THE
OPERATIONAL 06Z GFS IN THE WEST AND IN THE EAST...THE 00Z GEFS.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z GEFS AND 06Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTION WAS
SUBTLE WITH TRACK/INTENSITY OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL WAVE...DAYS 6-7
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IN THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE NATION...THE TRAJECTORIES OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SURGES/FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER MODIFICATION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND CONSEQUENTLY...LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWINGS...IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS PLAINS ARE IN THE
OFFING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK DAY 3-5. MANUAL GRAPHICS FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF
MEANS AND 06Z GEFS MEANS.

VOJTESAK

[srainhoutx]

Impressive cold and stormy pattern next weekend via the 12Z Euro.

168 Hour:

240 Hour/End of January: