La Nina is forecast to be between Moderate and Strong

[Cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center and the forecasters in Australia latest data shows that the final straw of El Nino is here.Right now El nino 3.4 area is down to +0.8C.The number to watch is +0.5 as is the limit of El Nino and below that is Neutral.

[Cycloneye]

With reason JB is all over the 30 day SOI.It has been a tremendous run upwards only in a week.

[Cycloneye]

The subsurface waters tell the story of how El Nino is dying.Those cool waters are expanding and will go to the surface soon.

[Cycloneye]

Here are the April updates from all the ENSO models.None has El Nino mantaining thru the summer.

[desiredwxgd]

Here are the April updates from all the ENSO models.None has El Nino mantaining thru the summer.

Steve, your thoughts?

[srainhoutx]

Steve, your thoughts?

I'll post some thoughts around May 1st.

[desiredwxgd]

Steve, your thoughts?

I'll post some thoughts around May 1st.

LOL, Sounds like JB for his paid clients.

[srainhoutx]

Still not fully 'buying the quick demise of El Nino' just yet.

[Cycloneye]

Still not fully 'buying the quick demise of El Nino' just yet.

Steve,even with the SOI going up and the cool subsurface waters expanding?

[srainhoutx]

Steve,even with the SOI going up and the cool subsurface waters expanding?

Patience grasshopper. I suspect our Caribbean Neighbors will need to be watchful.

[Cycloneye]

The latest subsurface graphic by ECMWF shows the warm waters waning while the cool waters expanding.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... me/xzmaps/

[Cycloneye]

The Aussies have El Nino 3.4 at +0.6C only one number below is Neutral.

[Cycloneye]

The demise of El Nino is inevitable very soon. See the cool waters how they continue to expand.

[Cycloneye]

Here are all of the ENSO models in their April update. All are between Neutral and La Nina but some mantain Neutral longer in time than others.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

[Cycloneye]

El Nino 3.4 down from +0.7C in last week's update to +0.5C in this week Climate Prediction Center update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Cycloneye]

The Australians also are at 0.5.

[srainhoutx]

CPC has released the May 6th Update concerning El Nino...

A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Cycloneye]

El Nino 3.4 area down to +0.3 on the weekly update by CPC.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Cycloneye]

Which El Neenyo area becomes neutral between +/- 0.5º?


Because we're close to neutral already.



JB was giddy last night on the positive 90 day SOI...

Neutral is from +0.5 to -0.5.

[Cycloneye]

We can say good-bye to El Nino now as the Australians deliver the obituary.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/