January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[cristina99]

way to go and burst my bubble.
This is cool weather this week - I want some real cold and winter precip!

[C2G]

Actually just looked at calendar...Baseball starts a week from this Friday so glance sounds good.

Yes, since 2005 I've watched the Astros with bated breath.

[weather101]

Funny...my weather hero...Joe B. said possible snowfall the way to I-10 corridor GFS brewing up a winter surprise...Duck Dynasty might even get snow...Thursday range??? Intresting

[C2G]

Funny...my weather hero...Joe B. said possible snowfall the way to I-10 corridor GFS brewing up a winter surprise...Duck Dynasty might even get snow...Thursday range??? Intresting

Ya, I saw that. I-10 goes a long way to our west.
I just don't get my hopes up too high when there's a chance. Once did.

[weather101]

Well when he threw in duck dynasty comment I kinda was reading between the lines...bit you do have a point

[srainhoutx]

As expected a noisy sub tropical jet and cold surface temps with over running precip has brought sleet across Central and E Texas this morning as a short wave/jet streak passes. The models are converging on a solution that will bring additional frozen precip for parts of Central/Northern SE TX on N and E for late Tuesday into Wednesday as a potent short wave drops S into Northern Mexico a begins to close off an upper low. Because of the cold core nature of the closed core upper low, additional Winter Weather Advisories are expected and I would not be surprise to see Winter Storm Watches hoisted for a large portion of W Central/SE/NE and E Texas extending E into Louisiana as very cold air aloft is entrained with this upper air feature and borderline freezing surface temps may create travel troubles across much of our Region. Stay Tuned as further guidance updates may bring additional data in this evolving Winter Weather Episode potential. The models are under estimating the situation this morning and I expect that will continue into the Mid Week time frame as well.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-141500-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
510 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013

...RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

POCKETS OF RAIN THIS MORNING MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A BRENHAM...HUNTSVILLE...LUFKIN LINE. THE RAIN AND SLEET
MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING SO THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO FREEZE ON
ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ANY SLEET SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED ON
AREA ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DUE TO SLICK CONDITIONS.

[Portastorm]

Shame on me, srainhoutx. I drank the "cold and dry" Kool-Aid which some NWS offices were selling, because when sleet began loudly hitting my roof at 4 a.m. and waking me up ... I was rather surprised!

Clearly the models are not handling this Southwest energy well and the atmosphere is a lot more primed to "precipitate" than some previously thought. Should be quite an interesting week around here.

[srainhoutx]

Shame on me, srainhoutx. I drank the "cold and dry" Kool-Aid which some NWS offices were selling, because when sleet began loudly hitting my roof at 4 a.m. and waking me up ... I was rather surprised!

Clearly the models are not handling this Southwest energy well and the atmosphere is a lot more primed to "precipitate" than some previously thought. Should be quite an interesting week around here.

What raises and eyebrow for me Portastorm are the strong agreement via the Euro/GFS/GGEM Ensembles for closing off the 500mb low across West Texas. That tends to favor a solution that would lend credence to a Winter Weather Episode across New Mexico/Texas and on east into Louisiana and Arkansas. We will need to watch this very closely today into tomorrow. These type features have in the past led to a few surprises and often portent a Winter Weather Event that the models under estimate. We will see.

Euro Ensembles:

01142013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA048.gif

GEFS:

01142013 00Z GEFS 00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA060.gif

GGEM:

01142013 00Z GGEM 00zGGEMEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA060.gif

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cold air mass is firmly entrenched over the area this morning with light rain and drizzle being reported along with some sleet mixing with the rainfall NW of a College Station to Giddings line.

Cold front that moved across the area early yesterday is now out over the NW Gulf of Mexico with warm moist SSW flow riding up and over the surface cold dome. Morning soundings from Lake Charles and Corpus show the surface cold dome is only about 2000-3000 feet deep above the surface with warm air (above freezing) extending up to near 13,000 ft. Fort Worth sounding is all below freezing so the front slope is shallow near the coast and then deepens inland falling below freezing just north of our northern row of counties…likely near the 850mb front. Fairly strong shortwave in the SW flow aloft has brought the formation of drizzle and light rainfall to the northern ½ of SE TX this morning. College Station has been reporting a light rain mixed with sleet this morning, but surface temperatures are in the mid 30’s and there will be no accumulation. This short wave will move east of the area by early afternoon ending the rainfall. Clouds may decrease late this afternoon with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies tonight.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Models have trended toward the ECMWF solution over the past 24 hours or a stronger and more cut-off upper level storm system for the mid week period. This keeps the cold air locked into place and supports more widespread precipitation Tuesday night-Wednesday. Expect clouds to increase from southwest to northeast on Tuesday as strong lift begins to spread eastward out of MX into TX. Isentropic lifting of a moist Gulf air mass over the surface cold dome will support to develop of drizzle and light rainfall by Tuesday night. NAM model is much more aggressive in developing rainfall across the region while the GFS keeps most of the rainfall near the coast and very light. Other item of interest is the surface temperatures during the overnight and morning hours on Wednesday. Both the NAM and GFS show surface temperatures falling to near freezing (especially north of HWY 105) Wednesday morning, but this is a very shallow layer of potential sub freezing air only about 1000 to 2000 ft thick. Other questions surround the amount of dry air at the surface and the ability of precipitation to reach the ground if the near surface layer is fairly dry. All of this is further complicated by the fact that the dry surface layer can be cooled a few degrees by precipitation falling into this layer. To even further complicate the issue, with the large area of warm air aloft, rain drops falling through this warm layer could offset any near surface evaporative cooling. Would like to see additional model runs help fine tune the freezing line and come into better agreement with both the precipitation placement and amounts before thinking about any freezing rain across the area for Wednesday morning.

Extended:
Main upper level system should progress east of the area on Thursday with decreasing clouds and slowly warming temperatures. Cloudy and cold conditions will be replaced with partly cloudy and warmer conditions. Highs will warm from the 40’s today-Wednesday into the 50’s Thursday-Sunday. Long range forecast models have been suggesting a surge of very cold arctic air deep into the US for the week of the 21st. While the pattern seems to support a cold air outbreak into the US, the trajectory of the incoming cold air is aimed more toward the MS valley and eastern US with a glancing blow expected for the southern plains. Will follow this line of thinking and support a strong cold frontal passage early next week, but keep the brunt of the arctic air NE of TX.

[Katdaddy]

Not sure is this obs is valid but check out Victoria, TX - Light Snow

Victoria Regional Airport 07:51 Light Snow Fog/Mist 38 34 86 N 15 30.19

[srainhoutx]

I wanted to take a brief moment to discuss the longer range forecast this morning before the all attention turns to the Winter Weather Potential Tuesday night into Wednesday. The 00Z GEFS and NAEFS continue to advertise some very chilly air settling well S across most of North America as we head to the latter period of January/early February.

NAEFS:

01142013 00Z NAEFS naefs_namer_300_2m_temp.gif

GEFS:

01142013 00Z GEFS gefs-mnsprd_namer_324_2m_temp.gif

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z 4km WRF/NMM (NAM) continue to raise an eyebrow for wintry weather across a large portion of our Region as the positive tilted trough and 500mb upper low closes off and becomes cold cored.

48 Hour:

01142013 12Z WRF NMM f48.gif

54 Hour:

01142013 12Z WRF NMM f54.gif

60 Hour:

01142013 12Z WRF NMM f60.gif

66 Hour:

01142013 12Z WRF NMM f66.gif

[harpman]

What does this show for s.e. La.? Thanks.

[redneckweather]

I saw that JB said snow all the way down to I-10. Is he smoking crack of what????!!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I saw that JB said snow all the way down to I-10. Is he smoking crack of what????!!!

He's not talking about I-10 in Houston. Further West.

With that said, I fully expect sleet and/or freezing rain in Central Montgomery County this week after the latest model runs. Maybe a late start to Work Wednesday or Thursday mornign.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...W-CNTRL/NWRN MS

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 141446Z - 141845Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.02 IN/HR /PERHAPS HIGHER
BENEATH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS/ ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH
18Z FROM PORTIONS OF NERN TX E-NEWD ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR INTO
W-CNTRL/NWRN MS. AFTER 18Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...BRINGING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO AN END.

DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING NEWD ACROSS
NRN TX AND SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
AIDING IN A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OUT OF NERN TX INTO
SRN AR/NRN LA. THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KSHV AND KFWD ALSO INDICATE WEAK
MUCAPE VALUES ROOTED FROM 750-600 MB...WHICH WILL FAVOR LOCALLY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SHIELD OF
RAIN. SURFACE FREEZING AND WET-BULB ZERO LINES EXTEND FROM NERN TX
NEWD INTO EXTREME NERN LA...WHILE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN THE
950-700 MB LAYER EXISTS ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIRMASS. THIS
THERMAL STRATIFICATION WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAINFALL THROUGH
18Z...WITH RATES OF 0.02 IN/HR POSSIBLE /PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER WITH
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS/. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 18Z...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO AN END.

..GARNER.. 01/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

[mcheer23]

No. JB clearly said I-10 in Texas.

[srainhoutx]

What does this show for s.e. La.? Thanks.

Everything hinges on the eventual track of the closed core low and the Coastal low/trough expected to develop late Tuesday offshore of the Texas Coast. The more likely scenario will be some wintry weather potential N of I-12 at this time, but we'll need to monitor for you folks further E in Louisiana. Stay Tuned!

[harpman]

Thank you sir.

[C2G]

No. JB clearly said I-10 in Texas.

Yes, that's correct, most likely I-10 to the west of the Houston area probably close to the hill country. That's still Texas.