January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[jeff]

[quote="Paul Robison"]Dear ANYONE! (Mario Gomez included)

I don't know if this is good news but heres the latest from HGX:


MOISTURE RETURN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS RUN. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL BEND REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH VERY HIGH
SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GRIDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HPC OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY HAS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT COULD AVERAGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES...AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
EVENT.

The upcoming storm system is not even close to a tropical system...Ike or Allison. While the main threat is going to be heavy rainfall and an isolated tornado or wind damage, it will not be anywhere close to the damage caused by Ike and certainly not Allison. There is no need to think about evacuating the area...as most of the state is going to be in the same threat we will be in. At this point in time I would put the heavy rainfall and flooding threat in the high potential with the severe threat low to moderate.

[weather101]

Now folks need to pay attention to this cold thing! Bastardi just tweeted cold coming showed GFS model cold coming right down the Rockies to the gulf coast...making report to Bloomberg news. Bastardi has a lot of industry customers as well as investor groups...anyway made statement that china was in worst winter on record and the US is next in about ten days. Interesting that no local Mets are uttering a word. Oh we'll Bastardi has written the book on long range forecast in my opinion.

[weather101]

Correction...China is having coldest winter in 28 years...sorry...just wanted to factually correct.

[wxman666]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 070335
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
935 PM CST SUN JAN 6 2013

.UPDATE...
CALM...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...FOG NOT QUITE THE THREAT IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLIES ARE GOING CALM AND GROUND MAY
STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY WIDE
ENOUGH TO OMIT ANY MENTION IN THE NEAR TERM GRIDS. THE FOG
SITUATION WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR EARLY MORNING
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS T-TD DEPRESSIONS FALL TO THREE
DEGREES (OR UNDER) WITHIN THIS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

UPPER LOW CHURNING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CAL TONIGHT WILL BE THE
FEATURE THAT WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWEST OF TEXAS AND SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE UPPER LEVELS
BECOME MORE DIFFULENT WITH THE REGION FALLING WITHIN A WARM SECTOR
LATE TUESDAY. FROM THE AMPED UP 40-50KT LLJ PUMPING UP NEAR-MAX
PWAT VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.7 INCHES TO THE HIGH FORECAST LOWER
LEVEL SHEAR LEADING TO HIGH HELICITY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF A LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. THE MAIN THREATS STEM FROM THE ABOVE PLAYERS...HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLOODING) AND TORNADOES THAT WILL FORM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERN TEXAS SURFACE LOW-SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WARM FRONT. 31

&&

[Paul Robison]

"Someone could be trolling...."

No, I am not trolling. But I have seen damage from such storm systems that rival, sometimes even surpass damage done by legendary hurricanes. I personally believe that the Houston area will share the fate of Joplin, Mo., not too many years ago. Or feel winds similar to Hurricane Wilma (2005). And, unfortunately, I live in a very thinly populated area of Houston, so, if I have power problems, Centerpoint isn't particuarly (what you'd call) anxious to get out here and fix what's wrong. (No offense to CP employees intended). And, unfortunately, some people I know do use weather forecasts like this as an excuse to leave town (justified or not). I mean no harm, only am afraid.

[weather101]

Yes the heavy rain does seem to be the threat...flood threat will be the headline of this particular storm. Down the road a bit is still a very Intresting question...Does winter start for real or just another model flip flop?

[Katdaddy]

Heavy rains still look to be the primary threat followed by severe weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
418 AM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST TODAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
EVENING. SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS A LARGE SWATH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER SPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL MOVE
TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST FROM THE LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF MATAGORDA BAY AND THEN OUT OVER
THE GULF. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY NORTH INTO SE TX BY
TUESDAY EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY TUES
EVENING AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 600 MB.
UPPER LEVELS WINDS BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT BY WED 00Z. WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...FEEL HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE
WARRANTED. THE HIGH RES NMM SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND HAVE SOME CONCERN
THAT DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP
AS LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINT AIR OVER RIDE WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER
50S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH
HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT THE TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND THE NAM FOCUS
MORE OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER SE
TEXAS. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS...
SLOWER CANADIAN WITH THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN. THE 00Z GFS IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY SLOTTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTN
ENDING THE PRECIP MUCH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM NEVER
BRINGS THE PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BUT THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST STRONG
DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE. WISH THE MODELS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT SE TX COULD GET DRY SLOTTED BY 18Z IF THE 00Z
GFS IS CORRECT. THAT SAID...THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL. MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT 3
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF SE TX BETWEEN 18Z
(NOON) TUESDAY AND 00Z (6 PM) THURSDAY. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SE TX IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAIN
SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS NEXT SAT NITE OR
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
GOING THROUGH MONDAY.

[cristina99]

Remind me who Bastardi is again. I don't watch Bloomberg news - guess I should. If the weather people on TV started hyping that up, then it wouldn't happen. Or maybe they're keeping their mouths shut as not to get anyone too excited! It will be intersting to see if the cold air slides more to the east or comes straight down like it has in past years. Yes what we have had is cold, but I don't like the cool down, warm up trend. I want some cold weather - really good soup weather.

[Portastorm]

Relevant excerpt from this morning's discussion from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center about heavy rain threat ... looks like you folks closer to the coast may see the brunt of it!

--------------
DAYS 2 AND 3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

SOME OF THE MARKERS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE FORECAST TO COME TOGETHER IN THIS REGION. AN UNSEASONABLY
MOIST COLUMN IS PREDICTED...WITH A CORRIDOR OF PW VALUES UP TO
1.75 INCHES DEVELOPING UP THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY GENEROUS WITH
RAINFALL...THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF
THE HEAVIER MESOSCALE RAIN EVENTS. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONCENTRATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TX COAST AND
INLAND FROM THERE TUESDAY. WE ARE TAKING A MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH...HOWEVER...BASED ON QUESTIONS ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING. A WARM FRONT MAY JUST
BARELY REACH THE COAST...MEANING AREAS INLAND WILL BE INVERTED AND
CLOUD COVERED...WITH CONVECTION REMAINING ROOTED ABOVE THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST
OF THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT...AND THE LACK OF DEEP ASCENT MAINTAINS
A WARM LAYER IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING AT
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...BUT OUR INITIAL THINKING IS THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
PRECIPITATING TOO HEAVILY GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. STILL...THERE IS A GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...CLOSER
TO THE WARM FRONT. BASING OUR QPF ON THE 12Z ECMWF WITH SOME INPUT
FROM THE 00Z NAM...WE CONFINED OUR HIGHER TOTALS TO THAT AREA AND
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

ON DAY 3...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD...AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD WHILE ALSO ADVANCING EAST
INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE NAM IS DROPPED PER THE
MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION...BUT WE SAW RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. ALL
OF THESE MODELS GIVE US A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR TWO PRIMARY SWATHS OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...AND THE OTHER WITH AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND OVER
INTO TENNESSEE. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 850 MB WINDS WILL FEED MOISTURE
ALONG THE LATTER PRECIPITATION BAND...YIELDING AT LEAST HALF TO
ONE INCH TOTALS OUT TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
THE BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO NARROW AS THE UPPER LOW GAINS FORWARD
SPEED AND WRAPS DRY AIR ON DAY 3...SUCH THAT AMOUNTS START TO DROP
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (WRF/NMM) is suggesting a very impressive meso low developing across Central Texas that will likely become a squall line as the warm front moves inland. Back into W Texas and Southern New Mexico, heavy wet snow develops with some impressive snow fall rates as the rich Gulf moisture is pulled N and wraps up into the closed cold core upper low. Stay informed everyone. I'm heading to New Mexico for some much needed R & R today and our Pro Mets and other folks will keep everyone updated during my time away.

The attachment 01072013 12Z WRF NMM f48.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

Morning update from Jeff:

Heavy Rainfall threat increasing for Tuesday-Wednesday.

Powerful upper level storm system currently located inland over S CA will be moving ESE into N MX over the next 24 hours. Large scale ascent developing over TX over the next 24 hours ahead of this feature will help to induce surface pressure falls across S TX. Deepening surface low pressure over S TX will start to bring a warm front northward with this feature situated from near Port Lavaca to Bay City and then ESE into the northern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday. Strong 850mb low level jet will rapidly return moisture over the top of the warm front and surface cool dome resulting in the formation of light rainfall by late tonight. As large scale lift increases on Tuesday expect thunderstorms to develop along the warm front. Expect very heavy rainfall in these storms along with widespread rainfall north of the boundary to help hold the boundary roughly in place between I-10 and the coast for much of Tuesday into Tuesday night.

As the upper level storm ejects ENE to NE across TX on Wednesday a slow moving cool front/dry line will punch eastward into the area. While some of the models have begun to diverge some with respect to rainfall potential on Wednesday, feel that good upper level divergence on the eastern side of the upper level storm coupled with a slow moving frontal boundary will continue to produce heavy thunderstorms. Dry slot could impede development to some degree, but this feature looks aimed more at central TX than SE TX.

Heavy Rainfall:
Main threat with this event will be very heavy rainfall. Models continue to show PWS climbing to over 1.7 inches which is about .25 of an inch above the +2SD for this time of year and very near the “maximum” values for early January. GPS loops of PWS over the Gulf of Mexico do suggest an area of 1.8-2.0 inch values located over the Bay of Campeche and this plume of deep moisture should become ingested into the storm system and brought northward into the area by late Tuesday. While such moisture is commonplace in the summer, it is rare in the winter when storm systems and dynamics are much stronger. The combination of such high moisture levels and strong dynamics will produce some very heavy rainfall. The air column is nearly saturated from the surface through the mid levels which will support efficient rainfall production with little evaporation leading to high short term rainfall totals. Moisture of this magnitude will support hourly rainfall totals of 1-2.5 inches.

Flash Flood Guidance across the region is lowest along and SE of US 59 where rains have been plentiful of late. 3-hr flash flood guidance is running around 3.0 inches. Suspect the axis of heaviest rainfall will be along and SE of US 59 (or just north of the warm frontal boundary) at least on Tuesday night. It is likely that flash flood guidance will be exceeded and significant run-off generated in this region. Rises on area bayous, creeks, and rivers is likely. Street flooding will be likely especially under areas of persistent cell training.

Severe Threat:
Not overly confident in a significant severe weather threat will this system as instability appears to be generally lacking south of the warm front due to widespread clouds and rainfall. Low level wind shear will be more than sufficient for storm rotation with ESE surface winds under stronger WSW mid level flow. Main threats will be wind damage and isolated tornadoes. Should the instability be slightly greater than forecast, the tornado threat would increase over the are Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Extended:
Much focus on the short term, but the extended does bring another wet looking system into the area by the weekend followed by a strong cold front early Sunday. Appears rains may continue after the cold front Sun-Mon. Will need to keep an eye on low temperatures by Tuesday AM if moisture is still lingering.

Severe Weather Outlook (Wednesday):

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Its crazy that I'm not all that excited about this heavy rain event. Typically I would be, but I'm more interested in some bone chilling cold in a week or two.

[vci_guy2003]

What kind of cold are we talking about ?

[jabcwb2]

thats a good question. Bet a lot of us would like to know so we can plan accordingly. Not just for ourselves, ut for those who depend on us for help during inclement weather.

[vci_guy2003]

30 degrees below normal , are those models still in play ?

[sambucol]

thats a good question. Bet a lot of us would like to know so we can plan accordingly. Not just for ourselves, ut for those who depend on us for help during inclement weather.

^this

What kind of temps here?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Some Long range models have DFW in the single digits and the panhandle and west central Texas below zero.

[srainhoutx]

Some Long range models have DFW in the single digits and the panhandle and west central Texas below zero.

I just looked through the weekend into early next week. 2 meter temps are not that much colder than what we have seen already this year. Beyond that, it is just too soon to actually know what the temps will be. That said the Plains look very chilly around hour 240 via the 12Z Euro.

[harpman]

LOL! Ed, not everyone looks forward to severe weather as you do! I'll wait for the cold.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah, last Winter was so boring that the January 9th episode made me excited.

Right now, with the prospects of some big time cold, severe weather just doesn't interest me. I can see warmth and severe weather in Houston any month of the year. I have a small window for cold and potential frozen precip.