October: Warm & Dry To End The Month

[JackCruz]

Looking at abc13's radar...saw snow in north Texas. How beautiful!

[jasons2k]

Yesterday, I went swimming after some yard work. Today, I have a fire going in the fire place. October in Texas.

[SusieinLP]

Nice and sunny here...I see drizzle is in forecast for tonight...?? did the front clear faster than expected?

[srainhoutx]

After a couple of cool days, a warming trend is set to begin as a return flow off the Gulf becomes established. A potent fall storm system will begin to meander E across California/Great Basin and slowly trek E toward the Southern Plains. While best the dynamics appear to be further N into the Texas Panhandle/N Texas/Oklahoma area during the mid to late week time frame, the guidance is suggesting some potential for strong to severe storms as a Pacific cool front drops S into Central Texas on Friday into Saturday and the robust upper low ejects into the Southern Plains. The SPC has a ‘see text’ area outline for portions of N Texas/Oklahoma in the day 3 time frame for potential super cell development. After several days of a strong return flow off the Gulf and increasing moisture and developing low level jet as well as a rather impressive tap of EPAC moisture along with a developing split flow, conditions may develop for a fall severe weather episode as we head toward the end of the week. We will see.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...MODELS DO SUGGEST IT WILL TURN EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE INLAND. DOWNSTREAM...CONFLUENT BELTS OF WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL...AS A VIGOROUS IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN NOSING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

...PARTS OF SRN PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY...
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BENEATH REMNANT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER
CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODEST
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BENEATH SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGING REMAINS UNCLEAR.

STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A BIT MORE PROBABLE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTED BY AREAS OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PAINS...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 10/08/2012

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cool surface dome of high pressure is over the area this morning with weak overrunning cloudiness starting to erode from the north. Should see clouds continue to break and scatter out over the next 2-4 hours with sun eventually for most areas by late afternoon. Decreasing clouds should result in a nice warm up into the mid to upper 70’s by this afternoon.

Surface high pressure moves off to the east ending our brief cool spell. Onshore winds return to the area starting early Tuesday and will be in place for several days. Morning lows will creep into the 60’s while afternoon highs warm into the upper 80’s under increasingly humid conditions. The chance of rain will remain on the low side through the end of the week. Toward next weekend the next trough from the west will move into the region, but the main impacts look to be north of our area over the central plains. Deepening moisture profiles may support at least a 20-30% rain chance by Saturday or Sunday.

[wxman57]

Warming trend - I like that thread title.

[Ptarmigan]

Warming trend - I like that thread title.

It is fall. It is suppose to be cooler.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to trend toward a potential severe weather episode for portions of the Panhandle/W Texas into Central/N Texas beginning as early as Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday. While there remains some uncertainty regarding capping, cloud cover and timing issues for the upper level dynamics and short wave energy moving in from the W associated with a potent Fall Upper Low, the chance for seeing a rather significant severe weather event to appear to be developing and should continue into Saturday further N into the Central Plains and Great Lakes Region. That said Fall severe weather outbreaks are very tricky to forecast and we will likely begin to see some consistency in the models as the short term high resolution meso models begin to latch on to the parameters associated with the 500mb upper low ejecting out of the Great Basin/Southern Rockies late Friday night. Locally, streamer showers and gusty winds appear to be the greatest threat right now, but we’ll need to monitor areas across Central/N Texas as stronger storms where hail and damaging winds may not be out of the question. Areas N of Metro Houston may be in an area to watch in the next couple of days as this Fall Storm develops over California and moves E and then NE this weekend.

[tireman4]

I am hearing the next real cold front is looking like Halloween?

[srainhoutx]

I am hearing the next real cold front is looking like Halloween?

Looks about right. In past years it seems that the end of October/first of November is when the first 'real' cold front drops S into Texas. Remember that climo tends to agree with a late October/early November legitimate cold spell for all of Texas...

[tireman4]

I know...Climo...you are right as usual, but I was hoping....LOL

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Warm and humid conditions expected through the weekend into next week.

Warm air advection has returned a humid air mass to the region. Area radars show a fair amount of shallow showers over the NW Gulf starting to make their way toward the coast and even inland around Matagorda Bay. While moisture profiles are deep enough for a few showers today, think most of what develops will be focused SW of Houston around Matagorda Bay where the moisture is deepest which matches well with the current radar trends and the TX Tech WRF modeling. Cool front dropping into N TX will stall to the north of our region resulting in continued moderate to at times strong onshore winds, humid conditions, and warm temperatures into the weekend.

Cannot rule out a shower or two nearly each day as moisture pumps into the region off the western Gulf. Today and Thursday show the best rain chances, but that is only in the 20% range. Friday-Saturday slightly drier air rotates westward across the Gulf and into the TX coast while the next storm system currently off the CA coast moves into the central plains. Nearly all lift and energy with this system will pass west and north of SE TX with high rain chances over W TX this weekend tapering to 10-20% for a passing shower over this region.

Weak front will approach the region from the exiting central US storm system by early next week, but it is highly questionable if the boundary will even make it this far south before stalling out and returning northward…looks like the continuation of and “Indian Summer” for the next 5-10 days with lows in the upper 60’s to low 70’s and highs near 90.

Long range progs have been back and forth with a pattern change toward the 20-22 of the month in which a strong cold front may cross the region bringing a cold air mass and good rain chances…for now this is a long way off…but there appears to be little happening weather wise until around the 18-22 of the month.

[srainhoutx]

The trends today have increased our chances of rainfall Saturday into Sunday...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR ATMOSPHERE BEHAVING AS PLANNED...MOIST AXIS IN THE WESTERN
AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT THAT THESE SHOULD DRIFT N AND NNE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AFTER 5 PM. THE WARM HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA AND MAY COME TO A
HALT IN THE AFTERNOON EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT SUNDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE 40-50 POPS FOR SUNDAY AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THESE RAINS WILL PAN OUT. PW VALUES OF 1.2-1.3
INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.9" ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND MAY HAVE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS
SPLIT IN UPPER JET AND TRAINING WIND PROFILE DEVELOPS. UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE AREA
SHIFTS EAST AND LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS...PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONT AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF SLOWER FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS 86-90 AND STEAMY MINS IN THE 71-78 DEGREE RANGE.
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RUN AROUND 81 FOR HIGHS AND 59 FOR
LOWS. RECORDS AREN`T IN JEOPARDY...SHY BY A FEW DEGREES.

[Andrew]

Getting some stronger storms up to the NW. I have been keeping a close eye on the Central/ Mississippi plains. SPC still seems to be uncertain on the degree of severe weather they will receive in the Kansas/ Illinois area. The 850mb Jet looks to increase from 50kt winds to 70kt winds with some decent mid level shear attached. The key uncertainty will be will this create stronger storms with winds or scattered super cells with possible tornado activity.

[djjordan]

Good Morning folks, amazingly quiet this morning on the board....everyone decide to sleep in this morning??? Looking forward to another Texans win this weekend and some rain on Sunday/Sunday Night!!!!! Hoping for some spooky weather for Halloween this year.

[Katdaddy]

Yes it has been quiet on the board with all the nice non-eventful weather. Just getting over being sick myself this week. Perhaps some thunderstorms to watch Sunday here locally. I will be watching the severe weather in the Central Plains this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

After a week of rather quiet weather, changes are in the cards as we head into the weekend. A rather strong upper air disturbance will eject into the Central Plains later tonight into tomorrow and active a Pacific front that will spark strong to severe storms across W Texas/Eastern New Mexico. The SPC has a Slight Risk outlined from West Texas into the Plains and as far N as the Western Great Lakes Region for tomorrow. Rain chances look to increase late in the day on Saturday as PW’s increase to near 2.0 across Central/SE Texas. There are indications that areas N of I-10 may see rounds of heavy rainfall in the 1-2 inch range with perhaps some isolated higher totals mainly N and W of Metro Houston.

By mid next week, a developing EPAC tropical disturbance as well as another mid/upper level disturbance develops over the Desert SW and begins to trek E into The Lone Star State increasing chances once again for heavy showers/storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Those looking for that first bonafide Blue Norther may not have to wait too much longer. There are indications of a pattern change near the end of the month that may provide for the first real cold snap of the season. We will see.

[wxman57]

Enjoy this nice, warm and humid air while it lasts, AZ!

[srainhoutx]

An active weather day ahead for our neighbors to the W and N of Metro Houston. Strong storm potential is increasing as a stationary boundary lies from the Rio Grande Valley NE into N Central Texas. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms outlined with damaging winds and hail being the primary threat. The also remains a chance for heavy rainfall N of Houston as the Pacific front stalls and washes out.

A weak northerly flow will develop across Texas tomorrow into Monday before another short wave and abundant moisture from a developing EPAC Tropical system cross the area late Tuesday/Wednesday. A stronger cold front will cross the area sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame bringing much cooler weather to the area and yet another chance of heavy rainfall before we clear out.

There still are suggestions of a much stronger Polar Cold Front dropping S in the late October time frame and even some hints of a potential tropical troublemaker developing in the Western Caribbean and moving NW into the SW Gulf before that strong front arrives. After a rather quiet period on the weather front, it does appear a more active pattern is developing as we head toward the end of October and just perhaps the first real Blue Norther that will bring much colder temps across the Lone Star State. After all, it is getting to be that time of year. We will see.

[Andrew]

Even looking at soundings for College Station things look pretty good for this time of the year. A little bit of an inversion from the 900-700mb but overall the atmosphere looks pretty juicy and maybe a couple of stronger storms can't be ruled out.