October: Warm & Dry To End The Month

[JackCruz]

From WSI

From accuweather http://www.weather.com/news/weather-for ... k-20120924

This can't be happening..... ugh

[srainhoutx]

From WSI

From accuweather http://www.weather.com/news/weather-for ... k-20120924

This can't be happening..... ugh

I wouldn’t worry too much about that ‘warmer’ forecast. There are indications that an active EPAC are ahead, and that may well mean ‘wetter’ for many who have been lacking in the rainfall department. The pattern suggests an increase in re curving (heading N and E) EPAC tropical disturbances with a West Coast trough. We’ll see what the month brings, but typically October is our transitional month. We will see.

[JackCruz]

Thanks Srain.

Tweet from Joe Bastardi: "One of the Canadian ensemble members in 2 weeks showing west Texas temps over 30 degrees F below normal "



Hmmm that's a little extreme....but hey if that could actually happen then I'l be ecstatic!

Wonder what model he's talking about though...I wonder if he's just picking and choosing assembles that show cold...I pray we get some bitter cold soon.

[ticka1]

after our rain event bust monday and into next week looks to cool down with temps during the day barely reaching 80 degrees. Enjoy for a few days temps rising again towards the end of the week!

[ticka1]

any long range forecasts showing when our next major cool/cold front comes through?

[Portastorm]

any long range forecasts showing when our next major cool/cold front comes through?

The 0z GFS run is showing a MAJOR cold front for the middle of October which would put our high temps into the 60s. But it's very far out in the run and what many of us call "La La Land." As srainhoutx says "we shall see."

[JackCruz]

any long range forecasts showing when our next major cool/cold front comes through?

The 0z GFS run is showing a MAJOR cold front for the middle of October which would put our high temps into the 60s. But it's very far out in the run and what many of us call "La La Land." As srainhoutx says "we shall see."

I love looking at "La La Land" I get my hopes up a little too much lol

[sambucol]

any long range forecasts showing when our next major cool/cold front comes through?

The 0z GFS run is showing a MAJOR cold front for the middle of October which would put our high temps into the 60s. But it's very far out in the run and what many of us call "La La Land." As srainhoutx says "we shall see."

YES!!! I really hope this verifies

[srainhoutx]

As nice cool morning on tap for the first day of October with upper 50's/low 60's across the Northern half of the region. It appears a short wave will drop SE tomorrow in the NW flow aloft and bring a chances of showers/storms to the area. Those looking for that first strong fall cold front may not have to wait too much longer. The first snow of the season may be ahead later in the week for Colorado and that front should arrive during the weekend into Central/SE Texas. There are hints of a stronger front next week, but that is still too far out to know with any certainty just how it will play out. That said the pattern does suggest that a transition to more active cold fronts are ahead as we transition from a summer pattern to that of a fall like pattern when those fronts dive S from Canada and increase in frequency. Tis that time of the year after all...

[tireman4]

And, to quote Srain, "Stepping down"....

[Belmer]

Big storms rolled through San Antonio and New Braunfels earlier this afternoon. Caught me off guard when I was walking to class and the skies got real dark here and wind picked up. However, no rain as it missed us from just a few miles to the south.
Loving the Fall temperatures though!

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active upper level pattern remains in place over the US with deep troughing over the eastern US. Western edge of this deep trough lies across much of the central and southern plains with a strong short wave noted over NC TX this morning between Dallas and Wichita Falls. While the air mass over the region is fairly dry, especially in the low levels, the strong ascent that will be yielding by the approaching short wave today along with its associated cold pool aloft may generate a few showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be west of I-45 where surface temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80’s making the air mass increasingly unstable. Dry sub cloud layer will support strong gusty winds near the thunderstorms.

After today the eastern US trough begins to push eastward allowing onshore winds to return to the area and a gradual warming trend. Not overly impressive with the degree of moisture return behind this latest system and suspect that pleasant weather will continue into Thursday with only a slow increase in afternoon highs and morning lows. A weak frontal boundary will advance southward toward the end of the week, but stall well north of SE TX on Friday. Compressional heating ahead of this boundary could result in highs pushing or exceeding 90 on Friday.

Big changes heading into the weekend as fairly strong surface high pressure for this time of year plunges southward out of Canada and down the plains bringing a strong cold front through TX over the weekend. Stalled frontal boundary near the Red River Friday afternoon will begin to surge southward on Friday night and should reach our northern counties by early Saturday and then blast off the coast by Saturday afternoon/evening. Decent cold air advection and gusty NW winds will follow the front with temperatures falling from the mid and upper 80’s into the 70’s behind the front and into the mid to lower 50’s by Sunday morning. GFS shows moisture becoming trapped in a fairly deep layer between 900 and 700mb in the post frontal air mass suggesting and cloudy and chilly day on Sunday. While model forecast high temperatures are in the mid 70’s, if the clouds pan out as expect, highs will not get out of the 60’s on Sunday with gusty NW winds. Moisture looks fairly meager with this front, maybe a thin line of showers right along the boundary or behind it Saturday afternoon. Post frontal lift appears weak with more clouds than precipitation. Plenty of time to fine tune the weekend temperature forecast as we are still several days out from the event.

Weekend Rainfall Totals (Friday-Sunday)

Houston County (Grapeland area): 10.55
La Pryor: 8.39
Hallettsville: 5.69
San Marcos: 4.81
San Antonio: 3.71
Port Lavaca: 4.13
Palacios: 3.64
Sugar Land: 1.77
Huntsville: 2.32
College Station: 2.69

[Belmer]

The Weather Channel will begin naming major winter storms for the 2012-13 season. Interesting discussion: http://www.weather.com/news/why-we-name ... s-20121001

[tireman4]

The Weather Channel will begin naming major winter storms for the 2012-13 season. Interesting discussion: http://www.weather.com/news/why-we-name ... s-20121001

I want to like this. I really do. The purist in me says...no. The media savvy guy in me says...I get it....I am on the fence....

[unome]

wow, did it ever just cool down in Cypress



edit to add nearby weather station:

[Katdaddy]

Got a report via FB of heavy rain and hail (no size) at I-45 and 518. I am about 2.5 miles to the W. Lots of CGs in the area.

[JackCruz]

Examiner
http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... ber-2-2012
Discussion

While most of the rest of the U.S. has a rude shock coming to it (big temperature drop), much of Texas should hold out until Saturday night before that "twinge of autumn chill" pays Houston a visit. Yes, it will be mild on Tuesday, with a cold pool aloft bringing a few clouds and showers. But on Wednesday, a sliver of heat ridging will rebuild, setting us on a course for what may be the last string of 90 degree (F) readings to occur before next spring.

Actually I would not be surprised to see a few spikes past 100 degrees (F) in parts of western and central Texas in late week before the arrival of a strong polar front on Saturday afternoon and night. Moisture will return from the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps enough to offer the chance for a random thunderstorm later on October 6. Increasing north winds on Sunday may drive afternoon highs then into the 60s (F), with refreshing night values into the 40s by the time you get up for work next Monday morning.

40s?? I haven't seen any lows for next week below 54...but hopefully?

[srainhoutx]

A brief warm up is ahead through Friday before fairly stout cold fronts drops into Central/SE Texas during the day on Saturday. Over running clouds and light drizzle/light rain along with gusty N to NW winds should make for good home cooked chili weather overnight Saturday into Sunday as temps struggle to reach the low 60's and even some upper 50's for highs on Sunday in the Hill Country and Northern Areas. Temps may well fall into the upper 40's Sunday night/early Monday if we can clear out and get some radiational cooling as the winds relax. It appears a return flow will re establish next Tuesday as a deep upper low to our W in California begins to meander E and possibly bring a return of plentiful moisture to the Lone Star State later next week. We will see how that longer range forecast plays out. Meanwhile, enjoy the warmth while it lasts. The weekend is looking cool and dreary...

[wxman57]

Come on cold front! Yeah, that's me wanting a strong cold front Sunday. Reason is that I have October 8th for the "first cold front" contest at work. That's determined by the first 45F dewpoint at 7am, which could be Monday - the 8th. I also have a bit of padding, as no one has the 7th or 9th. After the 8th, though, it's "come on warm front!".

[tireman4]

The Weather Channel will begin naming major winter storms for the 2012-13 season. Interesting discussion: http://www.weather.com/news/why-we-name ... s-20121001

I want to like this. I really do. The purist in me says...no. The media savvy guy in me says...I get it....I am on the fence....

More on the naming of winter weather systems....the more I slept on it, the more I just do not like it. Way, way too many varibles on this...

Going quite a bit deeper, Nate Johnson, a broadcast meteorologist in Raleigh, thoroughly breaks down the flaws in TWC’s failure to engage partners in this effort on the blog Digital Meteorologist:

In making this change unilaterally, The Weather Channel has essentially tossed effective risk communication out the window and their partners in the National Weather Service and other corners of the “weather community” under the bus. One of the tenets of good risk and emergency communication is that communicators speak with “one voice”. That doesn’t mean everyone says the same thing; rather, it means those involved should speak in harmony with others. ... By setting their own standards and making their own categorizations of winter storms behind closed doors, away from peer review and scientific scrutiny, they are jumping out and expecting the rest of the weather community to follow along...In other words, they’re telling the NWS, local TV stations, and local officials that “we will name the storms, and the rest of you should speak our language or you’ll be the one causing confusion.”


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html