Snowman wrote:what should i expect hear in New Orleans from this system?
LIX is forecasting similar totals for New Orleans, Snowman.
September. Heavy Rainfall Event/Flooding Possible 9/28-30th
-
srainhoutx
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LIX is forecasting similar totals for New Orleans, Snowman.
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srainhoutx
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From Nesdis:
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/28/12 1621Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14 1602Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM OVER PORTIONS OF
W CNTRL TX AND SW TX. OVER THE LAST HOUR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP
COOLING HAS SHIFTED INTO PORTIONS OF SW TX, PARTICULARLY OVER PRESIDIO AND
BREWSTER COUNTIES. THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS LIFTING NE OUT OF PORTIONS
OF N MEXICO AND ALSO DUE TO ENTRANCE REGION FROM STRENGTHENING JET STREAK
OVER THE S PLAINS.
.
LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES UP
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST PROFILER DATA
SHOWS THAT WINDS HAVE BACKED TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER PORTIONS
OF E AND SE TX. THIS HAS AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX
FURTHER SW THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SW TX AND BELIEVE AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-2230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND
EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF SW TX THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2.0-3.0" ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/28/12 1621Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14 1602Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM OVER PORTIONS OF
W CNTRL TX AND SW TX. OVER THE LAST HOUR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP
COOLING HAS SHIFTED INTO PORTIONS OF SW TX, PARTICULARLY OVER PRESIDIO AND
BREWSTER COUNTIES. THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS LIFTING NE OUT OF PORTIONS
OF N MEXICO AND ALSO DUE TO ENTRANCE REGION FROM STRENGTHENING JET STREAK
OVER THE S PLAINS.
.
LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES UP
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST PROFILER DATA
SHOWS THAT WINDS HAVE BACKED TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER PORTIONS
OF E AND SE TX. THIS HAS AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX
FURTHER SW THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SW TX AND BELIEVE AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-2230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND
EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF SW TX THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2.0-3.0" ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
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Looks to be a heavy rain event this weekend. I would not be surprised if some areas got 15 inches of rain once it is all over.
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TexasBreeze
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Add to this added moisture from new E Pac TS Norman by Baha...
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txflagwaver
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Well the plants are out to catch the rain...don't need 15" but I'll take 5
Thunder.Snowman wrote:what should i expect hear in New Orleans from this system?
-
wxman57
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Latest GFS indicates that the heavier rain will pass north of New Orleans. Light rain indicated from this evening through Sunday evening. Total precip only an inch or so. Waiting on 12Z Euro to see if it is in agreement. See below:Snowman wrote:what should i expect hear in New Orleans from this system?
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srainhoutx
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HPC says toss the GFS...for now...
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012
VALID SEP 28/1200 UTC THRU OCT 02/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
...EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/CMC/UKMET INCLUDING PRELIMINARY
PREFERENCES/FCST CONFIDENCE...
ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WERE DEEMED TO BE
TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.
...SHRTWV TROF ENERGY EJECTING FROM MX TOWARD THE SRN U.S...
...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACRS THE NRN GULF WATERS...
PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE-->BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN
FCST CONFIDENCE--------->LOW TO MEDIUM
UPR ENERGY WHICH GENERALLY MARKS THE REMAINS OF WHAT WAS MIRIAM
SHOULD STREAM ACRS MX AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE SOMEWHERE OVER THE LWR
MS VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH OTHER
SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY INDUCE AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD TRACK
EWD ACRS THE NRN GULF WATERS. THE 12Z NAM HAS RECENTLY SHOWED A
MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL PVA MAX CROSSING INTO W-CNTRL MX COMPARED
TO ITS PRECEDING RUNS. EVENTUALLY THE PHASING BETWEEN THIS ENERGY
AND THE ELONGATED TROF AXIS TO THE N MERGE RESULTING IN A STRONGER
SOLN ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS BY 01/0000Z. THIS ULTIMATELY
LEADS TO A DEEPER AND FARTHER N TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE
SUN/EARLY MON IN THE NAM/GFS. THE 12Z GFS THEN ALLOWS THIS LOW TO
GAIN MORE LATITUDE TOWARD THE LWR TN VALLEY WHICH IS QUICKER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL.
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE N
IN THE GULF OF MX WITH AN EXCEPTION BEING THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
CMC. THE 12Z GFS IS BEING REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION AS IT IS A
FAR N OUTLIER AND LOOKS NOTHING LIKE ITS MEAN OR THE 00Z GEFS ENS
MEMBERS. FURTHER...THE 00Z CMC HAS POOR CONTINUITY AND IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE S OF THE BETTER CLUSTERING. BEYOND
01/1200Z...EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH HAD APPEARED IN LINE WITH THE
GUIDANCE CLUSTER BEGINS SHIFTING NEWD WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN
PREFERS A SOLN ALONG THE GULF COAST. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED
A TREND TO THE N BUT HPC DOES NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE FARTHEST N
EXTREMES AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL RECOMMEND A SOLN CLOSER TO
THE ENS MEANS WHICH IS REPRESENTED BY A COMBO OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z
ECMWF ENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LWR END GIVEN THE INC
FCST SPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012
VALID SEP 28/1200 UTC THRU OCT 02/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
...EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/CMC/UKMET INCLUDING PRELIMINARY
PREFERENCES/FCST CONFIDENCE...
ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WERE DEEMED TO BE
TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.
...SHRTWV TROF ENERGY EJECTING FROM MX TOWARD THE SRN U.S...
...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACRS THE NRN GULF WATERS...
PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE-->BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN
FCST CONFIDENCE--------->LOW TO MEDIUM
UPR ENERGY WHICH GENERALLY MARKS THE REMAINS OF WHAT WAS MIRIAM
SHOULD STREAM ACRS MX AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE SOMEWHERE OVER THE LWR
MS VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH OTHER
SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY INDUCE AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD TRACK
EWD ACRS THE NRN GULF WATERS. THE 12Z NAM HAS RECENTLY SHOWED A
MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL PVA MAX CROSSING INTO W-CNTRL MX COMPARED
TO ITS PRECEDING RUNS. EVENTUALLY THE PHASING BETWEEN THIS ENERGY
AND THE ELONGATED TROF AXIS TO THE N MERGE RESULTING IN A STRONGER
SOLN ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS BY 01/0000Z. THIS ULTIMATELY
LEADS TO A DEEPER AND FARTHER N TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE
SUN/EARLY MON IN THE NAM/GFS. THE 12Z GFS THEN ALLOWS THIS LOW TO
GAIN MORE LATITUDE TOWARD THE LWR TN VALLEY WHICH IS QUICKER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL.
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE N
IN THE GULF OF MX WITH AN EXCEPTION BEING THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
CMC. THE 12Z GFS IS BEING REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION AS IT IS A
FAR N OUTLIER AND LOOKS NOTHING LIKE ITS MEAN OR THE 00Z GEFS ENS
MEMBERS. FURTHER...THE 00Z CMC HAS POOR CONTINUITY AND IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE S OF THE BETTER CLUSTERING. BEYOND
01/1200Z...EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH HAD APPEARED IN LINE WITH THE
GUIDANCE CLUSTER BEGINS SHIFTING NEWD WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN
PREFERS A SOLN ALONG THE GULF COAST. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED
A TREND TO THE N BUT HPC DOES NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE FARTHEST N
EXTREMES AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL RECOMMEND A SOLN CLOSER TO
THE ENS MEANS WHICH IS REPRESENTED BY A COMBO OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z
ECMWF ENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LWR END GIVEN THE INC
FCST SPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Here at the Tulane campus we have already picked up over an inch today! Everybody has been walking into class soaked even the professors 
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srainhoutx
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SPC:
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SCNTRL
TX SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX.
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE TX GULF COAST WHERE SOME
OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE TX
GULF COAST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR DURING
THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICTORIA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS BUT LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK
SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT COULD REMAIN MARGINAL.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SCNTRL
TX SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX.
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE TX GULF COAST WHERE SOME
OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE TX
GULF COAST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR DURING
THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICTORIA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS BUT LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK
SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT COULD REMAIN MARGINAL.
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srainhoutx
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QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 29/0000 UTC THRU SEP 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
CNTRL TO SRN TX INTO SRN LA...
WIDESPREAD HVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PCPN AMTS LIKELY DAY 1 ACRS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL TO SRN TX IN AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVG PW
VALUES...2-2.5+ STD ABOVE THE MEAN...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DAY 1 FROM NRN MEXICO ACRS CNTRL TO SRN TX AND INTO LA. SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD AND ENEWD IN THIS HI
PW AXIS...STRENGTHENING THE SELY TO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
ENHANCING UPR DIFFLUENCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN
SHRTWV DETAILS IS NOT GREAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
WIDESPREAD HVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PCPN AMTS GIVEN THE HI
PWS...STRONG UPR DIFFLUENCE AND FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGRMNT. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF AXES AMONG THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL AND HI RES GUIDANCE. THE HI RES ARW...NMM AND SPCWRF
ALONG WITH MANY OF THE LATEST SREF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A FARTHER
SWD AXIS THAN THE GFS...NAM AND NAM CONEST. DAY 1 QPF LEANED
HEAVILY TOWARD THE FARTHER SWD HI RES GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD
THEIR MORE PROGRESSIVE ESEWD PUSH OF HEAVY PCPN THIS PERIOD GIVEN
THEIR GENERAL BETTER PERFORMANCE WITH AREAS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD 1-3" AREAL AVG AMTS DEPICTED THIS PERIOD
ACRS CNTRL TO SRN TX...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5"
POSSIBLE.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 29/0000 UTC THRU SEP 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
CNTRL TO SRN TX INTO SRN LA...
WIDESPREAD HVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PCPN AMTS LIKELY DAY 1 ACRS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL TO SRN TX IN AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVG PW
VALUES...2-2.5+ STD ABOVE THE MEAN...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DAY 1 FROM NRN MEXICO ACRS CNTRL TO SRN TX AND INTO LA. SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD AND ENEWD IN THIS HI
PW AXIS...STRENGTHENING THE SELY TO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
ENHANCING UPR DIFFLUENCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN
SHRTWV DETAILS IS NOT GREAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
WIDESPREAD HVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PCPN AMTS GIVEN THE HI
PWS...STRONG UPR DIFFLUENCE AND FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGRMNT. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF AXES AMONG THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL AND HI RES GUIDANCE. THE HI RES ARW...NMM AND SPCWRF
ALONG WITH MANY OF THE LATEST SREF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A FARTHER
SWD AXIS THAN THE GFS...NAM AND NAM CONEST. DAY 1 QPF LEANED
HEAVILY TOWARD THE FARTHER SWD HI RES GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD
THEIR MORE PROGRESSIVE ESEWD PUSH OF HEAVY PCPN THIS PERIOD GIVEN
THEIR GENERAL BETTER PERFORMANCE WITH AREAS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD 1-3" AREAL AVG AMTS DEPICTED THIS PERIOD
ACRS CNTRL TO SRN TX...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5"
POSSIBLE.
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wxman57
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- Contact:
12Z Euro is much farther north with the low than even the GFS (I have the high-dollar full-resolution run of the Euro available now). For example, at 7am Sunday morning the Euro has the low center well NE of Lufkin while the lower-res versions have it south of Lake Charles at the same time. It indicates heaviest precip passing well north of Houston tomorrow and rain ending before sunrise Sunday across Houston as we get in the dry slot.
-
wxman57
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- Posts: 2621
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- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Not much indicated as far as severe parameters across TX tomorrow. Greatest LI at -4, but generally -2 to -3. Capes 700 or less everywhere.Ed Mahmoud wrote:wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro is much farther north with the low than even the GFS (I have the high-dollar full-resolution run of the Euro available now). For example, at 7am Sunday morning the Euro has the low center well NE of Lufkin while the lower-res versions have it south of Lake Charles at the same time. It indicates heaviest precip passing well north of Houston tomorrow and rain ending before sunrise Sunday across Houston as we get in the dry slot.
I know the MOS was still showing 1.5 inches of rain, which is decent, what do severe parameters look like on Euro?
Stupid AccuWx PPV graphics still showing 0Z run...
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srainhoutx
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0006.120929T1100Z-120930T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EASILY REACHING AT LEAST 2 TO 4
INCHES. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
IF ANY FLOODING IS OBSERVED...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE
WATER. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0006.120929T1100Z-120930T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EASILY REACHING AT LEAST 2 TO 4
INCHES. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
IF ANY FLOODING IS OBSERVED...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE
WATER. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro is much farther north with the low than even the GFS (I have the high-dollar full-resolution run of the Euro available now). For example, at 7am Sunday morning the Euro has the low center well NE of Lufkin while the lower-res versions have it south of Lake Charles at the same time. It indicates heaviest precip passing well north of Houston tomorrow and rain ending before sunrise Sunday across Houston as we get in the dry slot.
The HPC stated the 12Z OP Euro was bogus as well. They're expecting the 00Z Euro ensembles have a better handle on things at this time. That said as we all well know, meso features are darn near impossible to forecast 24 hours out and confidence remains low to medium at best.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
The 12z globals may be selling, but HPC ain't buying.
THE HI RES ARW...NMM AND SPCWRF ALONG WITH MANY OF THE LATEST \
SREF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A FARTHER SWD AXIS THAN THE GFS...NAM AND
NAM CONEST. HPC LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE FARTHER SWD HI RES GUIDANCE
AND ALSO TOWARD THEIR MORE PROGRESSIVE ESEWD PUSH OF HEAVY PCPN THIS PERIOD
GIVEN THEIR GENERAL BETTER PERFORMANCE WITH AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE HI RES ARW...NMM AND SPCWRF ALONG WITH MANY OF THE LATEST \
SREF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A FARTHER SWD AXIS THAN THE GFS...NAM AND
NAM CONEST. HPC LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE FARTHER SWD HI RES GUIDANCE
AND ALSO TOWARD THEIR MORE PROGRESSIVE ESEWD PUSH OF HEAVY PCPN THIS PERIOD
GIVEN THEIR GENERAL BETTER PERFORMANCE WITH AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
Almost thought we were going to get some rain in Stafford earlier. The skies clouded up, the wind started, than we got about 10 drops. 
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wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
By Sunday, the global models should have an excellent handle on tomorrow's weather.srainhoutx wrote:
The HPC stated the 12Z OP Euro was bogus as well. They're expecting the 00Z Euro ensembles have a better handle on things at this time. That said as we all well know, meso features are darn near impossible to forecast 24 hours out and confidence remains low to medium at best.
Haha