2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[wxman57]

Note that with the deepening trof across the central U.S. next week, the upper-level flow across the northern Gulf will increase significantly. Westerly winds of 50-80 kts will dominate the northern half of the Gulf next week. That rules out any possible tropical threat across the northern Gulf.

[Ptarmigan]

That disturbance before the resolution truncation is awfully unimpressive.


Now, as a natural optimist, although I normally dismiss 2 week post-truncation storms on the GFS, one of the SUNY-Albany grad students think the end of September into October could become a favorable period. Very little of significance happens locally past the Equinox, but again, we have Cat 1 Jerry the Western suburbs of Houston didn't know was happening, and the 16 day GFS forecast has fairly reasonable (20 to 30 knot) 250 mb Westerlies over the Northern Gulf, and the Western end of the subtropical ridge might guide the 384 hour phantacane towards the West or even Northwest Gulf.

And so how can I not be glass 3/128th optimistic?

The October 1949 hurricane was a major hurricane at landfall.

[srainhoutx]

That disturbance before the resolution truncation is awfully unimpressive.


Now, as a natural optimist, although I normally dismiss 2 week post-truncation storms on the GFS, one of the SUNY-Albany grad students think the end of September into October could become a favorable period. Very little of significance happens locally past the Equinox, but again, we have Cat 1 Jerry the Western suburbs of Houston didn't know was happening, and the 16 day GFS forecast has fairly reasonable (20 to 30 knot) 250 mb Westerlies over the Northern Gulf, and the Western end of the subtropical ridge might guide the 384 hour phantacane towards the West or even Northwest Gulf.

And so how can I not be glass 3/128th optimistic?

The October 1949 hurricane was a major hurricane at landfall.

I see Cat 3 and Cat 4 at different internet sites...

Until re analysis suggests otherwise, it was a CAT 4...