Tropical Storm Leslie: S of Bermuda

[srainhoutx]

08292012_1745_msg2_x_vis2km_98LINVEST_25kts-1009mb-133N-376W_100pc.jpg

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982012_al122012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208301204
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[MontgomeryCoWx]

likelihood it will form?

[srainhoutx]

likelihood it will form?

It should be a TD at 10 AM. Likely to be Leslie in the next 24-48 hours, IMO.

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 43.4W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAND. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS 30 KT...WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB 1200 UTC
ESTIMATES... THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE
LATEST PICTURES. AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY SEEMS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WILDLY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS MATERIALIZES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/17. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.1N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.9N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.1N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[wxman666]

And we now have TS Leslie. Might want to change the title again Srain.

[wxman57]

My office pool guess of 9 named storms in 2012 turned out to be pretty good, if we leave out June, July, September, October and November.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 051436
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-109


I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 
    1. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
       FLIGHT ONE --NASA872--
       A. 07/0130Z
       B. NASA872 0112A LESLIE SURVEILLANCE AV-6
       C. 06/1900Z
       D. 26.9N 63.3W
       E. 07/0130Z TO 07/1130Z
       F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
       G. IP 30.1N 81.2W OUTFLOW LAYER AXIS CYCLONIC S TO N

    

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 
       A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1200Z IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
       B. FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 07/1800Z NEAR 26.6N 63.2W.

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
145 PM AST WED SEP 5 2012

CORRECTED LATITUDE IN SUMMARY INFORMATION

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LESLIE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUMMARY OF 145 PM AST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 62.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 62.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.