ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


SOI is dropping into negative territory.

SOI values for 18 Jun 2012Average for last 30 days -7.4
Average for last 90 days -4.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.0

Monthly average SOI values
March 2.3
April -6.2
May -2.4

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... /index.php

The Equatorial East Pacific is warming up.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Here comes El Nino!

[Portastorm]

Latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center says Nino is coming alright. It's now a matter of how strong will it be?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Looks like we are heading towards El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

Two Types of El Nino Events: Cold Tongue El Nino and Warm Pool El Nino
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... JCLI2624.1

There are different kinds of El Ninos/La Ninas. They are not all the same.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Should be interesting to see if we get a CT El Nino this year. Those typically bring the harshest Winters.

1972-73
1982-83
1997-98

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Interesting..... I thought I might draw a correlation between those values, the type of Winter HGX had and the type of El Nino, but I'm not seeing much.

With the PDO tanking this year and El Nino, I was thinking we might see a repeat of one of these.

[wxman57]

Latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center says Nino is coming alright. It's now a matter of how strong will it be?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

How is Lake Travis doing these days? We saw some amazing pics last summer of the lake at very low levels.

[Portastorm]

Latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center says Nino is coming alright. It's now a matter of how strong will it be?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

How is Lake Travis doing these days? We saw some amazing pics last summer of the lake at very low levels.

Yeah, the incredibly low level of the lake last year was indeed amazing. A person could really get good perspective of it from the air if your flight path took you over the lake.

Last I saw, Travis was sitting at 640 feet. That is actually roughly 10 feet LOWER than last year at this time and 40 feet below the full pool level. The recent rains of this week were mainly I-35 corridor and east which doesn't help Travis all that much.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Looks like things have cooled down a bit.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Things are warming up again. Looks to be this El Nino is going to be more of an eastern type, unlike the last El Nino of 2009-2010, which was El Nino Modoki.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

How does that affect Houston?

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

No change in Region 3.4. Cooling in Region 1+2 and 3. However, Region 4 is warming up.

June July MEI value is 1.139.

Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.8ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

Region 3 and 3.4 are heating up. Region 1+2 is not neutral. Earlier this year, Region 1+2 was warm. Per

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.9ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.2ºC

Region 3, 3.4, and 4 are warming up, while 1+2 are cooling.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf