September. Heavy Rainfall Event/Flooding Possible 9/28-30th

[tireman4]

Have not seen a thread on it, might as well get it up so we can concentrate on the month. I am still thinking the first 'real' front will come through around September 25 ( Climo). What say you all?

[Rich]

I sure hope so! I know I'm ready for it

[tireman4]

At least for DFW....Interesting AFD....

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR ONE OR TWO
FRONTS TO REACH NORTH TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST AS THE GFS ADVERTISES ONE FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah, College Station highs next weekend (in the long range) have it in the 80s.

[tireman4]

Not yet for us...yet....but stay tuned...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM LABOR DAY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A FRONT DRIVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT IS A BIT EARLY
TO TELL IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX...THOUGH. FOR
NOW...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE HGX FORECAST AREA.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[tireman4]

Hope continues and the optimism is at least growing for a front to visit....


LL EYES THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND TO SEE HOW
A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW TAKES SHAPE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE STILL
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. 42


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[txflagwaver]

Not yet for us...yet....but stay tuned...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM LABOR DAY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A FRONT DRIVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT IS A BIT EARLY
TO TELL IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX...THOUGH. FOR
NOW...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE HGX FORECAST AREA.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

We are actually getting showers here...of course just enough to make it really hot and steamy later...Here's to a non eventful month free of tropical storm threats.

[tireman4]

Not yet for us...yet....but stay tuned...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM LABOR DAY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A FRONT DRIVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT IS A BIT EARLY
TO TELL IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX...THOUGH. FOR
NOW...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE HGX FORECAST AREA.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

We are actually getting showers here...of course just enough to make it really hot and steamy later...Here's to a non eventful month free of tropical storm threats.

Agreed, but that hot and tropical air mass will just kill my running. Today's 7 miler will be interesting. Lovely. LOL

[Katdaddy]

Watching tropical thundershowers approach the Houston metro area from the SW. Little outflow boundary pushing across Brazoia County may activate more tropical showers.

[Rip76]

It's coming down in the 77089.

[SusieinLP]

Nice rain in LaPorte

[mckinne63]

Windy and cloudy in Stafford, but no rain. It did rain a bit when we were on the way home from the Sugarland area. Hoping dh's Nascar race doesn't get called off for the 3rd weekend in a row. Although I will never wish away rain.

[Rich]

We've been getting a pretty good soaking in Pearland!

[txflagwaver]

Been raining for over an hour...great weather for cleaning house...lol

[mckinne63]

Getting some rain in Stafford now. Skies don't look very dark though. Rain is very thin.

[Canebo]

We got almost 2" of rain here in League City today. Looks like the sprinkler system gets a few days off!!

Now if that cool front will just slide through here next wekend all will be right with the world again.

[tireman4]

Still uncertainty remains on the cold front....


AS WE HEAD ON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...A DEEPENING TROF
ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BECOME A PLAYER
ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROF
AND FRONT...SO OUR FORECAST IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON SATURDAY
THEN DECREASE THE CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME FORECAST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. 42


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[tireman4]

Still looking for the front, although we will have to roast in the heat first....lol

REST OF THE WEEK...HOT AND DRY. WENT GENERALLY WITH NAM/ECM MOS
FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. OPERATIONAL GFS MOS TOO COOL AND IS BELOW THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEEMS WISE TO GO WARM. IF ECM IS CORRECT A FEW DAYS
OF 100-102 ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLL THIS WEEK...FOR NOW GOING WITH 99
NO A FEW DAYS. SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
BREAKABLE CAP WITH SOME TRIGGER SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE. GFS
FORECASTS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SE TX ON SATURDAY AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEW ECMWF RUN IS STILL SLOWER AND
HANGS FRONT UP IN SE TX ON SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO BE NCEP
PREFERENCE AS WELL. AT ANY RATE...RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND WE MAY SEE SOME DECENT RAINS ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT.
04

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[tireman4]

Things are looking up. This weekend coming up could be a really nice one...


THIS SHOULD BRING US OUR NEXT SHOT OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS AS WE HEAD ON INTO NEXT
WEEK. PARTS OF OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
LOW TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 A WEEK OR SO
FROM TODAY! 42


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't get my hopes up too much for a major 'cool down' behind the forecasted 'cool front'. I see the forecasted low temps keep going up from those inland 50's mentioned a couple of days ago. It appears this one will be like the last when TS Helene formed to our SW along the NE Mexico Gulf Coast. HGX is already mentioning a return flow off the Gulf for next Monday with increasing PW's as that boundary retreats N or totally washes out.