Invest 95L: Western Gulf

[jasons2k]

Wxman57 (on s2k) says nothing to worry about with 95L...interesting.

[srainhoutx]

Wxman57 (on s2k) says nothing to worry about with 95L...interesting.

Last time wxman57 made a bold call here (see Helene), RECON proved otherwise. Perhaps that's why he is staying away from the local board...

[wxman57]

Yep, that's what he says. Plane is pretty much finding a frontal boundary out in the Gulf. Certainly nothing coming up to TX. Enjoy the dry air across the state and the cool temps tonight. Unseasonably strong cold front.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 (on s2k) says nothing to worry about with 95L...interesting.

Last time wxman57 made a bold call here (see Helene), RECON proved otherwise. Perhaps that's why he is staying away from the local board...

If Helene ever was a TS it may have been so briefly as the plane arrived, but as the plane left it was already weakening below TS strength.

[srainhoutx]

Wxman57 (on s2k) says nothing to worry about with 95L...interesting.

Last time wxman57 made a bold call here (see Helene), RECON proved otherwise. Perhaps that's why he is staying away from the local board...

If Helene ever was a TS it may have been so briefly as the plane arrived, but as the plane left it was already weakening below TS strength.

That OK. It burned a name in my August 5/2/1 forecast contest...

[jasons2k]

Yep, that's what he says. Plane is pretty much finding a frontal boundary out in the Gulf. Certainly nothing coming up to TX. Enjoy the dry air across the state and the cool temps tonight. Unseasonably strong cold front.

So...question...the scenario that Jeff laid out in his emails last week -- an Alicia-like scenario of a storm forming along the stalled front and then drifting back northward - is that totally off the table now? And if so, what changed? Why would this system bury in MX instead of drifting up this way?

[srainhoutx]

RECON did find a wind shift, but nothing noteworthy regarding any winds to warrant a TD. I will add the GFS does suggest some increased moisture returns mid week. The Euro as well as the GFS take what ever is in the Western Gulf and moves it inland into NE Mexico. And for those that don't know it, wxman57 and I tend to kid each other a lot over the years...

[djmike]

Well, not sure about you guys, but Im dismissing 95L. Seems to be a dud and we obviously wont be getting anything from it...oh well.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
520 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

UPDATED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

[unome]

tenacious little "non-storm" isn't it ?

[srainhoutx]

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

[biggerbyte]

Yet another system that proved to be a dud. Goes to show how quickly things can change from day to say. At one point it looked to have some potential.


Moving on to the next one.