Invest 95L: Western Gulf

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[jasons2k]

hmmm. muy interesante! Interesting week ahead for sure.

[biggerbyte]

Woop, there it is.

Exciting times..

[djmike]

Wow...Ok, now that we have Ex-Helene (the new 20% blob) which way will it drift? Hoping it means more moisture for us! I only got .89" this entire weekend...

[biggerbyte]

Right now it is stationary. Where it eventually goes depends on the environment around it. That environment can change daily. That is why trying to forecast these things beyond three days is highly unreliable. Things begin to get interesting around mid week as this cool front we have will begin to retreat. Game changers will be put in motion at that time, so we just need to monitor 94L, as well as 95L. You already know what to expect from these systems today.

[ticka1]

will it develop? i hate asking this but are any models showing development?

[biggerbyte]

Will it develop. I say yes, as of todays thinking. NWS says 20% ATM.

[djmike]

Right now it is stationary. Where it eventually goes depends on the environment around it. That environment can change daily. That is why trying to forecast these things beyond three days is highly unreliable. Things begin to get interesting around mid week as this cool front we have will begin to retreat. Game changers will be put in motion at that time, so we just need to monitor 94L, as well as 95L. You already know what to expect from these systems today.

Thanks biggerbyte! Yea, saw the models earlier on 94L....all I can say on that is WOW. Plenty of time though to watch...

[tireman4]

And remember ( to quote Srain and Katdaddy...love ya bro!!), Alicia started off as an item off a front in 1983....

The origins of Hurricane Alicia were from a cold front that extended from New England through the central Gulf of Mexico. On August 14, mesoscale low-pressure area developed off the Alabama and Mississippi coastlines.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... ite_note-4

[cisa]

And remember ( to quote Srain and Katdaddy...love ya bro!!), Alicia started off as an item off a front in 1983....

The origins of Hurricane Alicia were from a cold front that extended from New England through the central Gulf of Mexico. On August 14, mesoscale low-pressure area developed off the Alabama and Mississippi coastlines.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... ite_note-4

I was thinking I remembered that as well.

[jasons2k]

Will it develop. I say yes, as of todays thinking. NWS says 20% ATM.

That's 20% in the next 48 hours.

It may be Wednesday before it develops, but I think it will eventually.

[tireman4]

I am thinking that too Jason...a late week bloomer as it were....

[Karen]

I remembered one of our storms started this way. If I remember correctly did'nt tropical storm Allison form right off of the coast also?

[Katdaddy]

Right on Tireman regarding Alicia's development! Lots of moisture across the W and NW GOM this afternoon.

[SusieinLP]

Humberto (2007) is an example of how fast things can get serious...

[srainhoutx]

Update:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[biggerbyte]

Will it develop. I say yes, as of todays thinking. NWS says 20% ATM.

That's 20% in the next 48 hours.

It may be Wednesday before it develops, but I think it will eventually.

Oops! Thanks for the clarification. I meant to put that in.. LOL

[Alvin Girl]

And remember ( to quote Srain and Katdaddy...love ya bro!!), Alicia started off as an item off a front in 1983....

The origins of Hurricane Alicia were from a cold front that extended from New England through the central Gulf of Mexico. On August 14, mesoscale low-pressure area developed off the Alabama and Mississippi coastlines.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... ite_note-4

Yes, I remember Alicia, in fact it was 29 years ago yesterday that she paid us a visit. We really have to watch these "home grown" storms because they can sneak up on us FAST

[jasons2k]

I was hoping this afternoon's local AFD would say something about 95L and all I got was this:

"IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND."